3 ms·

>> > 292 (26%) of 1,141 fatal cases reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19. > So you're saying 1,141 - 292 = 849 or 430% increase over 160 deaths

by nanis 5y ago

>> > 292 (26%) of 1,141 fatal cases reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19. > So you're saying 1,141 - 292 = 849 or 430% increase over 160 deaths recorded before. No, I was comparing apples to apples. If you want to do it this way, you need to also note: > 28 (18%) decedents were asymptomatic or died from a cause unrelated to COVID-19.[1] Therefore, (1,141 - 292)/(160 - 28) corresponding to 543% increase. Either way, the baseline went from 100 million fully vaccinated to 160 million fully vaccinated meaning a 60% increase in the population in question resulted in either 543% or 713% more deaths after breakthrough infections. Further, >> Beginning May 1, 2021, CDC transitioned from monitoring all reported COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infections this is only relevant insofar as we now have no measure of how many fully vaccinated individuals get infected, don't feel sick, and walk around with high viral loads. [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7021e3.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7021e3.htm

neogodless 5y ago
> Either way, the baseline went from 100 million fully vaccinated to 160 million fully vaccinated meaning a 60% increase in the population in question resulted in either 543% or 713% more deaths after breakthrough infections. Right - the only logical variable to account for the increase would be Delta. Unless you're implying some other cause for the increase?
- nanis 5y ago
  > Unless you're implying some other cause for the increase? I am not particularly interested in the cause ... but, the Bayesian in me combines the fact that CDC stopped reporting number of breakthrough infections combined with the facts that chances of dying from Covid19 are low to being with and supposedly lowered by the vaccine gives me the gut feeling that breakthrough infection rates are now probably around 2-3% which means there are a whole lot of typhoid Marys walking around with high viral loads.
  - neogodless 5y ago
    And suddenly the CDC's reversal on masks makes sense. We should all still be wearing them, as they are better at preventing spread from the person wearing then anything else.
  - nanis 5y ago
    And, now, this[1]: > Among 1497 fully vaccinated health care workers for whom RT-PCR data were available, 39 SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections were documented. Neutralizing antibody titers in case patients during the peri-infection period were lower than those in matched uninfected controls ... For the record, that's 2.6% breakthrough infection among fully vaccinated people who are healthier and more careful than the general population. [1]: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2109072 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2109072

by nanis 5y ago

neogodless 5y ago

> Either way, the baseline went from 100 million fully vaccinated to 160 million fully vaccinated meaning a 60% increase in the population in question resulted in either 543% or 713% more deaths after breakthrough infections. Right - the only logical variable to account for the increase would be Delta. Unless you're implying some other cause for the increase?

nanis 5y ago
> Unless you're implying some other cause for the increase? I am not particularly interested in the cause ... but, the Bayesian in me combines the fact that CDC stopped reporting number of breakthrough infections combined with the facts that chances of dying from Covid19 are low to being with and supposedly lowered by the vaccine gives me the gut feeling that breakthrough infection rates are now probably around 2-3% which means there are a whole lot of typhoid Marys walking around with high viral loads.
- neogodless 5y ago
  And suddenly the CDC's reversal on masks makes sense. We should all still be wearing them, as they are better at preventing spread from the person wearing then anything else.
- nanis 5y ago
  And, now, this[1]: > Among 1497 fully vaccinated health care workers for whom RT-PCR data were available, 39 SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections were documented. Neutralizing antibody titers in case patients during the peri-infection period were lower than those in matched uninfected controls ... For the record, that's 2.6% breakthrough infection among fully vaccinated people who are healthier and more careful than the general population. [1]: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2109072 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2109072