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Not trying to bait or anything, just genuinely curious which disasters we've spent billions on as a result of climate change? I'm not talking about things like

Not trying to bait or anything, just genuinely curious which disasters we've spent billions on as a result of climate change? I'm not talking about things like oil spills or results of corporate environmental neglect. I'm talking about natural disasters that are happening that can be directly tied to human-driven climate change. For example — as far as I can tell, we have little evidence the forest fires in the PNW are directly impacted by climate change. When humans have been the direct cause, it's been things like cigarettes or fireworks starting fires that then spread to 100s of thousands of acres. That's not climate change as far as I can tell. Take this article for example → https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/climate-change-disasters-cause-210-billion-in-damage-in-2020.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/climate-change-disasters-cau... and this excerpt: "The six costliest disasters of 2020 occurred in the U.S, the worst of which was Hurricane Laura. The storm caused $13 billion in damage after it devastated parts of Louisiana in August. The Atlantic hurricane season saw a record 30 named storms and accounted for $43 billion in losses, almost half of the total disaster loss in the U.S. last year, the report said." What does this have to do with human-driven climate change? There's no source or data that shows the hurricanes are caused by humans or that humans are even contributing to the cause. This article from climate.gov talks about aerosols, but still, not great studies and not great data → https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/how-humans-can-affect-strength-tropical-cyclones https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/how-humans-... I find it hard to argue these points with climate change deniers because the data doesn't appear to be all that great. So I'm very curious how others are able to have fact based conversations so people can actually start coming to the realization that we do have a strong impact on the climate.

godelski 5y ago
> For example — as far as I can tell, we have little evidence the forest fires in the PNW are directly impacted by climate change. When humans have been the direct cause, it's been things like cigarettes or fireworks starting fires that then spread to 100s of thousands of acres. That's not climate change as far as I can tell. There's a misunderstanding here, I think. Yes, there is a direct cause by someone lighting a fire and then that fire burning. But there's other variables here that are highly influenced by climate change. Let me give a small example: What happens when you throw a lit cigarette butt on a well watered (but currently dry) and maintained lawn? You should know that the answer is nothing. The cigarette butt goes out. But what happens if you do it on a dry lawn? Very different story. This is how climate change helps drive more and worse wildfires than the past. We can see that there are larger number of acres burned per year[0]. But we can't look at that alone, let's look a precipitation trends in the PNW[1]. It's kinda a bold claim to not see the connection when we're going through a literal heat wave (it hasn't even been a month since the PNW set several heat records. My city hit 3 in one weekend). We can see that by year CA fires are becoming more frequent and more acres are burned[2]. Here's what happens. When there's a drought lots of plants die. Then there are flash rains. Lots of new growth that is able to capitalize on the rich soil from fertilization due to ash (ash is a great fertilizer). Heat then dries out all these low growth plants that are unable to sustain temperature swings like their more long lived brethren. Lots of dry shrubbery becomes lots of tinder. Now enter some idiot with a cigarette driving down the highway. Is that idiot to blame? Yes. Are they the only sole cause to the event that unfolds? Clearly not. > There's no source or data that shows the hurricanes are caused by humans or that humans are even contributing to the cause. I'm not sure what you're talking about. There is a clear positive trend between the number of hurricanes and tropical storms over the last hundred years[3], you can see the same thing with tornadoes. I'm not sure why you think this isn't related to climate change. Hurricanes are so prevalent in the Alantic Basin because that is where you get mixing of warm and cold air (warm air coming from the east from Africa and cold air coming from the north). Add more warm and more cold and you got more powerful hurricanes (you can see that in the trend too. Part of what that means is more storms upgraded to hurricanes and major hurricanes). > I find it hard to argue these points with climate change deniers because the data doesn't appear to be all that great. This is where I'm confused and do actually feel like I'm being baited. There's tons of data. You can find more than a dozen papers going into each of these topics I've mentioned all telling similar stories (and a few dozen more effects that couple with these). The problem here isn't that there isn't data, the problem is refusing to look at it. The problem is refusing to look at causal chains (like in our fire example). Even the Pentagon is writing reports[5] about how climate change is exacerbating issues (also, this is far from the first report that they wrote). More fires, more harsh storms, lower crop yields, decreasing access to water, desalination of ocean water, decrease in coral production, melting ice caps, etc. And here's the kicker. All these things can be linked to CO2eq in the atmosphere[6]. All these things are related. They all influence one another and there's a feedback loop because the coupled nature. The facts and data are there. The question is if you will look at it. Are you going to listen to some person on the news or on the internet (including me) or are you going to seek out climate researchers and see what they say? Go listen to the experts. See why they are all terrified. We're far beyond where it is acceptable to have the conversation about the existence of something we've known about since the early 1980's. It isn't just the kitchen stove that is on fire. The whole house is ablaze. We can feel the heat and see the flames. Why are we still talking about if the fire exists? For the last ten years I hear every day people (including climate deniers) constantly saying "Boy, it's a hot summer this year." And we have the data to show that it's not just their gut feelings. I'm not being metaphorical when I say that people feel the heat. [0] https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/09/23/us/fires-worst-year-california-oregon-washington-promo-1600916989757/fires-worst-year-california-oregon-washington-promo-1600916989757-superJumbo.jpg https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/09/23/us/fires-worst-ye... (paywalled: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/24/climate/fires-worst-year-california-oregon-washington.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/24/climate/fires...) [1] https://www.forest2market.com/blog/2020-precipitation-trends-wildfire-outlook-for-the-pacific-northwest https://www.forest2market.com/blog/2020-precipitation-trends... [2] https://lao.ca.gov/reports/2020/4285/Fig1.png https://lao.ca.gov/reports/2020/4285/Fig1.png [3] https://i.imgur.com/ax5CNnh.png https://i.imgur.com/ax5CNnh.png (I sourced the data from NOAA) [4] https://www.ventusky.com https://www.ventusky.com [5] https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/sec_335_ndaa-report_effects_of_a_changing_climate_to_dod.pdf https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/se... [6] https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/ https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-wo...

godelski 5y ago

> For example — as far as I can tell, we have little evidence the forest fires in the PNW are directly impacted by climate change. When humans have been the direct cause, it's been things like cigarettes or fireworks starting fires that then spread to 100s of thousands of acres. That's not climate change as far as I can tell. There's a misunderstanding here, I think. Yes, there is a direct cause by someone lighting a fire and then that fire burning. But there's other variables here that are highly influenced by climate change. Let me give a small example: What happens when you throw a lit cigarette butt on a well watered (but currently dry) and maintained lawn? You should know that the answer is nothing. The cigarette butt goes out. But what happens if you do it on a dry lawn? Very different story. This is how climate change helps drive more and worse wildfires than the past. We can see that there are larger number of acres burned per year[0]. But we can't look at that alone, let's look a precipitation trends in the PNW[1]. It's kinda a bold claim to not see the connection when we're going through a literal heat wave (it hasn't even been a month since the PNW set several heat records. My city hit 3 in one weekend). We can see that by year CA fires are becoming more frequent and more acres are burned[2]. Here's what happens. When there's a drought lots of plants die. Then there are flash rains. Lots of new growth that is able to capitalize on the rich soil from fertilization due to ash (ash is a great fertilizer). Heat then dries out all these low growth plants that are unable to sustain temperature swings like their more long lived brethren. Lots of dry shrubbery becomes lots of tinder. Now enter some idiot with a cigarette driving down the highway. Is that idiot to blame? Yes. Are they the only sole cause to the event that unfolds? Clearly not. > There's no source or data that shows the hurricanes are caused by humans or that humans are even contributing to the cause. I'm not sure what you're talking about. There is a clear positive trend between the number of hurricanes and tropical storms over the last hundred years[3], you can see the same thing with tornadoes. I'm not sure why you think this isn't related to climate change. Hurricanes are so prevalent in the Alantic Basin because that is where you get mixing of warm and cold air (warm air coming from the east from Africa and cold air coming from the north). Add more warm and more cold and you got more powerful hurricanes (you can see that in the trend too. Part of what that means is more storms upgraded to hurricanes and major hurricanes). > I find it hard to argue these points with climate change deniers because the data doesn't appear to be all that great. This is where I'm confused and do actually feel like I'm being baited. There's tons of data. You can find more than a dozen papers going into each of these topics I've mentioned all telling similar stories (and a few dozen more effects that couple with these). The problem here isn't that there isn't data, the problem is refusing to look at it. The problem is refusing to look at causal chains (like in our fire example). Even the Pentagon is writing reports[5] about how climate change is exacerbating issues (also, this is far from the first report that they wrote). More fires, more harsh storms, lower crop yields, decreasing access to water, desalination of ocean water, decrease in coral production, melting ice caps, etc. And here's the kicker. All these things can be linked to CO2eq in the atmosphere[6]. All these things are related. They all influence one another and there's a feedback loop because the coupled nature. The facts and data are there. The question is if you will look at it. Are you going to listen to some person on the news or on the internet (including me) or are you going to seek out climate researchers and see what they say? Go listen to the experts. See why they are all terrified. We're far beyond where it is acceptable to have the conversation about the existence of something we've known about since the early 1980's. It isn't just the kitchen stove that is on fire. The whole house is ablaze. We can feel the heat and see the flames. Why are we still talking about if the fire exists? For the last ten years I hear every day people (including climate deniers) constantly saying "Boy, it's a hot summer this year." And we have the data to show that it's not just their gut feelings. I'm not being metaphorical when I say that people feel the heat. [0] https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/09/23/us/fires-worst-year-california-oregon-washington-promo-1600916989757/fires-worst-year-california-oregon-washington-promo-1600916989757-superJumbo.jpg https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/09/23/us/fires-worst-ye... (paywalled: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/24/climate/fires-worst-year-california-oregon-washington.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/24/climate/fires...) [1] https://www.forest2market.com/blog/2020-precipitation-trends-wildfire-outlook-for-the-pacific-northwest https://www.forest2market.com/blog/2020-precipitation-trends... [2] https://lao.ca.gov/reports/2020/4285/Fig1.png https://lao.ca.gov/reports/2020/4285/Fig1.png [3] https://i.imgur.com/ax5CNnh.png https://i.imgur.com/ax5CNnh.png (I sourced the data from NOAA) [4] https://www.ventusky.com https://www.ventusky.com [5] https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/sec_335_ndaa-report_effects_of_a_changing_climate_to_dod.pdf https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/se... [6] https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/ https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-wo...