3 ms·

> Around 99% of hospitalizations are among the unvaccinated "unvaccinated" includes people who have had one dose or people who had the second dose less than tw

by nanis 5y ago

> Around 99% of hospitalizations are among the unvaccinated "unvaccinated" includes people who have had one dose or people who had the second dose less than two weeks ago[1]: >> a vaccine breakthrough infection is defined as the detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA or antigen in a respiratory specimen collected from a person ≥14 days after receipt of all recommended doses of an FDA-authorized COVID-19 vaccine.[1] >> ... A total of 10,262 SARS-CoV-2 vaccine breakthrough infections had been reported from 46 U.S. states and territories as of April 30, 2021. Among these cases, 6,446 (63%) occurred in females, and the median patient age was 58 years (interquartile range = 40–74 years). Based on preliminary data, 2,725 (27%) vaccine breakthrough infections were asymptomatic, 995 (10%) patients were known to be hospitalized, and 160 (2%) patients died.[1] >> ... As of April 30, 2021, approximately 101 million persons in the United States had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19. [1] Now, let's look at a more recent report[2]: >>> As of July 19, 2021, more than 161 million people in the United States had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19. >>> Hospitalizations* 5,601 (95%) >>> Deaths† 1,141 (19%) So, "fully vaccinated" increased by 60% over that period, but deaths among the fully vaccinated increased by 613%. That's curious. [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7021e3.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7021e3.htm [2]: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/bre...

neogodless 5y ago
Two minor adjustments: > Beginning May 1, 2021, CDC transitioned from monitoring all reported COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infections to investigating only those among patients who are hospitalized or die, thereby focusing on the cases of highest clinical and public health significance. This is just to keep in mind the % of cases that result in death will be higher based on the different focus of the monitoring. > 292 (26%) of 1,141 fatal cases reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19. So you're saying 1,141 - 292 = 849 or 430% increase over 160 deaths recorded before. Still significant. This is at the same time that Delta is increasingly dominant[0][1]. So it does seem like this Delta variant may be more deadly, even to the vaccinated, though still massively less deadly when compared directly to the unvaccinated. From April 30th through about yesterday, there were about 35,000 total deaths in the U.S. from COVID-19[2]. That number dwarfs the total 850 or so that have died while vaccinated since the beginning of vaccination availability. [0] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/07/17/us/delta-variant-us-growth.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/07/17/us/delta-vari... [1] https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021/07/15/us/delta-variant-us-growth-promo-1626401728082/delta-variant-us-growth-promo-1626401728082-superJumbo-v2.png https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021/07/15/us/delta-variant-... [2] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
- nanis 5y ago
  >> > 292 (26%) of 1,141 fatal cases reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19. > So you're saying 1,141 - 292 = 849 or 430% increase over 160 deaths recorded before. No, I was comparing apples to apples. If you want to do it this way, you need to also note: > 28 (18%) decedents were asymptomatic or died from a cause unrelated to COVID-19.[1] Therefore, (1,141 - 292)/(160 - 28) corresponding to 543% increase. Either way, the baseline went from 100 million fully vaccinated to 160 million fully vaccinated meaning a 60% increase in the population in question resulted in either 543% or 713% more deaths after breakthrough infections. Further, >> Beginning May 1, 2021, CDC transitioned from monitoring all reported COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infections this is only relevant insofar as we now have no measure of how many fully vaccinated individuals get infected, don't feel sick, and walk around with high viral loads. [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7021e3.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7021e3.htm
  - neogodless 5y ago
    > Either way, the baseline went from 100 million fully vaccinated to 160 million fully vaccinated meaning a 60% increase in the population in question resulted in either 543% or 713% more deaths after breakthrough infections. Right - the only logical variable to account for the increase would be Delta. Unless you're implying some other cause for the increase?
    - nanis 5y ago
      > Unless you're implying some other cause for the increase? I am not particularly interested in the cause ... but, the Bayesian in me combines the fact that CDC stopped reporting number of breakthrough infections combined with the facts that chances of dying from Covid19 are low to being with and supposedly lowered by the vaccine gives me the gut feeling that breakthrough infection rates are now probably around 2-3% which means there are a whole lot of typhoid Marys walking around with high viral loads.
      - neogodless 5y ago

by nanis 5y ago

neogodless 5y ago

Two minor adjustments: > Beginning May 1, 2021, CDC transitioned from monitoring all reported COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infections to investigating only those among patients who are hospitalized or die, thereby focusing on the cases of highest clinical and public health significance. This is just to keep in mind the % of cases that result in death will be higher based on the different focus of the monitoring. > 292 (26%) of 1,141 fatal cases reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19. So you're saying 1,141 - 292 = 849 or 430% increase over 160 deaths recorded before. Still significant. This is at the same time that Delta is increasingly dominant[0][1]. So it does seem like this Delta variant may be more deadly, even to the vaccinated, though still massively less deadly when compared directly to the unvaccinated. From April 30th through about yesterday, there were about 35,000 total deaths in the U.S. from COVID-19[2]. That number dwarfs the total 850 or so that have died while vaccinated since the beginning of vaccination availability. [0] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/07/17/us/delta-variant-us-growth.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/07/17/us/delta-vari... [1] https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021/07/15/us/delta-variant-us-growth-promo-1626401728082/delta-variant-us-growth-promo-1626401728082-superJumbo-v2.png https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021/07/15/us/delta-variant-... [2] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

nanis 5y ago
>> > 292 (26%) of 1,141 fatal cases reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19. > So you're saying 1,141 - 292 = 849 or 430% increase over 160 deaths recorded before. No, I was comparing apples to apples. If you want to do it this way, you need to also note: > 28 (18%) decedents were asymptomatic or died from a cause unrelated to COVID-19.[1] Therefore, (1,141 - 292)/(160 - 28) corresponding to 543% increase. Either way, the baseline went from 100 million fully vaccinated to 160 million fully vaccinated meaning a 60% increase in the population in question resulted in either 543% or 713% more deaths after breakthrough infections. Further, >> Beginning May 1, 2021, CDC transitioned from monitoring all reported COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infections this is only relevant insofar as we now have no measure of how many fully vaccinated individuals get infected, don't feel sick, and walk around with high viral loads. [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7021e3.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7021e3.htm
- neogodless 5y ago
  > Either way, the baseline went from 100 million fully vaccinated to 160 million fully vaccinated meaning a 60% increase in the population in question resulted in either 543% or 713% more deaths after breakthrough infections. Right - the only logical variable to account for the increase would be Delta. Unless you're implying some other cause for the increase?
  - nanis 5y ago
    > Unless you're implying some other cause for the increase? I am not particularly interested in the cause ... but, the Bayesian in me combines the fact that CDC stopped reporting number of breakthrough infections combined with the facts that chances of dying from Covid19 are low to being with and supposedly lowered by the vaccine gives me the gut feeling that breakthrough infection rates are now probably around 2-3% which means there are a whole lot of typhoid Marys walking around with high viral loads.
    - neogodless 5y ago