4 ms·

> In no world is this statement justifiable. It is obvious I have an idea. What if we did a randomized control placebo group and compared death rates. That is

by breck 5y ago

> In no world is this statement justifiable. It is obvious I have an idea. What if we did a randomized control placebo group and compared death rates. That is the gold standard, right? Well they did that, and the placebo group and vaccine group had the same death rate (their next move then was to end the placebo group). I would be surprised if it turns out the vaccines don't save lives, but I haven't seen any clear cut proof that they are, given that the one experiment that would have proven it conclusively didn't, and then was ended early. So I think it's a perfectly justifiable statement and point of view.

nawgz 5y ago
> they did that, and the placebo group and vaccine group had the same death rate (their next move then was to end the placebo group). Who is "they" and why did you not source this claim? Regardless, given the current state where 99% of people hospitalized with COVID are unvaccinated, I find it nearly impossible to imagine the idea that "death rates are the same between vaccinated & unvaccinated" wouldn't just immediately fall apart under your proposed experiment.
- nanis 5y ago
  Placebo-Controlled Trials of Covid-19 Vaccines — Why We Still Need Them[1]. Long-Term Studies Of COVID-19 Vaccines Hurt By Placebo Recipients Getting Immunized[2]: > Tens of thousands of people who volunteered to be in studies of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines are still participating in follow-up research. But some key questions won't be easily answered, because many people who had been in the placebo group have now opted to take the vaccine. Pfizer and BioNTech speed up timeline for offering Covid-19 vaccine to placebo volunteers[3]: > Pfizer and its partner BioNTech plan to offer their Covid-19 vaccine to any clinical trial volunteer who received placebo by March 1, several months earlier than initially planned. [1]: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2033538 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2033538 [2]: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/19/969143015/long-term-studies-of-covid-19-vaccines-hurt-by-placebo-recipients-getting-immuni https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/19/9691430... [3]: https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/01/pfizer-and-biontech-speed-up-timeline-for-offering-covid-19-to-placebo-volunteers/ https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/01/pfizer-and-biontech-spee...
  - nawgz 5y ago
    None of these articles support the claim that "death rates are the same in fully vaccinated vs un/partially vaccinated populations". Probably because no such literature exists.
    - nanis 5y ago
      > None of these articles support the claim that "death rates are the same in fully vaccinated vs un/partially vaccinated populations". Probably because no such literature exists. The documents show that the placebo arms were terminated prematurely and the fact that there is agreement that they are still needed. Here is Moderna[1]. If you look at Table 19, Vaccine Placebo Death* 4/15184 (<0.1) 4/15165 (<0.1) Here is Pfizer[2]. If you look at Table 14, Vaccine Placebo Deaths 2/21621 (0.0) 4/21631 (0.0) Locating relevant information for other vaccines is left as an exercise for the readers. [1]: https://www.fda.gov/media/144434/download https://www.fda.gov/media/144434/download [2]: https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download
    - breck 5y ago
      > Probably because no such literature exists. It's literally in the FDA reports (https://t.co/tIJN9pkE1B?amp=1 https://t.co/tIJN9pkE1B?amp=1). The relevant line highlighted: https://twitter.com/breckyunits/status/1348080756921303041/photo/1 https://twitter.com/breckyunits/status/1348080756921303041/p... Again, I'd be surprised if it turns out they don't save lives, but I think it's a very reasonable position to be skeptical of that claim.
      - nawgz 5y ago
        > I think it's a very reasonable position to be skeptical of that claim And you believe this based entirely on wildly outdated data that tracks deaths per cohort without tracking infections per cohort, despite this same literature showing a 0.01% breakthrough infection rate and the disease itself causing a higher death rate for 2020 than any recent year in spite of massive lockdown & social isolation efforts that almost eliminated flu? I don't really understand this position even if I do concede that there exist a couple line items from 2020 that show two similarly sized groups with similar death rates despite being on opposite ends of the vaccinated or not spectrum.

by breck 5y ago

nawgz 5y ago

> they did that, and the placebo group and vaccine group had the same death rate (their next move then was to end the placebo group). Who is "they" and why did you not source this claim? Regardless, given the current state where 99% of people hospitalized with COVID are unvaccinated, I find it nearly impossible to imagine the idea that "death rates are the same between vaccinated & unvaccinated" wouldn't just immediately fall apart under your proposed experiment.

nanis 5y ago
Placebo-Controlled Trials of Covid-19 Vaccines — Why We Still Need Them[1]. Long-Term Studies Of COVID-19 Vaccines Hurt By Placebo Recipients Getting Immunized[2]: > Tens of thousands of people who volunteered to be in studies of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines are still participating in follow-up research. But some key questions won't be easily answered, because many people who had been in the placebo group have now opted to take the vaccine. Pfizer and BioNTech speed up timeline for offering Covid-19 vaccine to placebo volunteers[3]: > Pfizer and its partner BioNTech plan to offer their Covid-19 vaccine to any clinical trial volunteer who received placebo by March 1, several months earlier than initially planned. [1]: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2033538 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2033538 [2]: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/19/969143015/long-term-studies-of-covid-19-vaccines-hurt-by-placebo-recipients-getting-immuni https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/19/9691430... [3]: https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/01/pfizer-and-biontech-speed-up-timeline-for-offering-covid-19-to-placebo-volunteers/ https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/01/pfizer-and-biontech-spee...
- nawgz 5y ago
  None of these articles support the claim that "death rates are the same in fully vaccinated vs un/partially vaccinated populations". Probably because no such literature exists.
  - nanis 5y ago
    > None of these articles support the claim that "death rates are the same in fully vaccinated vs un/partially vaccinated populations". Probably because no such literature exists. The documents show that the placebo arms were terminated prematurely and the fact that there is agreement that they are still needed. Here is Moderna[1]. If you look at Table 19, Vaccine Placebo Death* 4/15184 (<0.1) 4/15165 (<0.1) Here is Pfizer[2]. If you look at Table 14, Vaccine Placebo Deaths 2/21621 (0.0) 4/21631 (0.0) Locating relevant information for other vaccines is left as an exercise for the readers. [1]: https://www.fda.gov/media/144434/download https://www.fda.gov/media/144434/download [2]: https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download
  - breck 5y ago
    > Probably because no such literature exists. It's literally in the FDA reports (https://t.co/tIJN9pkE1B?amp=1 https://t.co/tIJN9pkE1B?amp=1). The relevant line highlighted: https://twitter.com/breckyunits/status/1348080756921303041/photo/1 https://twitter.com/breckyunits/status/1348080756921303041/p... Again, I'd be surprised if it turns out they don't save lives, but I think it's a very reasonable position to be skeptical of that claim.
    - nawgz 5y ago
      > I think it's a very reasonable position to be skeptical of that claim And you believe this based entirely on wildly outdated data that tracks deaths per cohort without tracking infections per cohort, despite this same literature showing a 0.01% breakthrough infection rate and the disease itself causing a higher death rate for 2020 than any recent year in spite of massive lockdown & social isolation efforts that almost eliminated flu? I don't really understand this position even if I do concede that there exist a couple line items from 2020 that show two similarly sized groups with similar death rates despite being on opposite ends of the vaccinated or not spectrum.