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> Whether these particular vaccines are saving any lives is an open question In no world is this statement justifiable. It is obvious from hospitalization & fa

by nawgz 5y ago

> Whether these particular vaccines are saving any lives is an open question In no world is this statement justifiable. It is obvious from hospitalization & fatality rates of unvaccinated vs. vaccinated people that the vaccine has already saved many lives and was also probably a strong contributor to that "wave burnout" in the first place, especially looking at a country like Canada > there is some indication that the time between the first and second injection is particularly risky. There is no indication that getting one shot puts you in a "particularly risky" position. It is clear the vaccine only achieves partial effectiveness in this time, but that is not "particularly risky", that's slightly reduced risk against the null hypothesis of being unvaccinated. I challenge you to post any literature which shows anything about increased susceptibility of one shot vs no shots. > It is not unreasonable for people to want to wait Tell me, what numbers have you set in your head to make it reasonable to "trust" the vaccination? To me, seeing the Phase 3 trials without significant side effects was plenty. Now, we have probably 10+x that data over 2-3x the timespan, and the risk picture has not changed. What tipping point(s) will you consider?

breck 5y ago
> In no world is this statement justifiable. It is obvious I have an idea. What if we did a randomized control placebo group and compared death rates. That is the gold standard, right? Well they did that, and the placebo group and vaccine group had the same death rate (their next move then was to end the placebo group). I would be surprised if it turns out the vaccines don't save lives, but I haven't seen any clear cut proof that they are, given that the one experiment that would have proven it conclusively didn't, and then was ended early. So I think it's a perfectly justifiable statement and point of view.
- nawgz 5y ago
  > they did that, and the placebo group and vaccine group had the same death rate (their next move then was to end the placebo group). Who is "they" and why did you not source this claim? Regardless, given the current state where 99% of people hospitalized with COVID are unvaccinated, I find it nearly impossible to imagine the idea that "death rates are the same between vaccinated & unvaccinated" wouldn't just immediately fall apart under your proposed experiment.
  - nanis 5y ago
    Placebo-Controlled Trials of Covid-19 Vaccines — Why We Still Need Them[1]. Long-Term Studies Of COVID-19 Vaccines Hurt By Placebo Recipients Getting Immunized[2]: > Tens of thousands of people who volunteered to be in studies of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines are still participating in follow-up research. But some key questions won't be easily answered, because many people who had been in the placebo group have now opted to take the vaccine. Pfizer and BioNTech speed up timeline for offering Covid-19 vaccine to placebo volunteers[3]: > Pfizer and its partner BioNTech plan to offer their Covid-19 vaccine to any clinical trial volunteer who received placebo by March 1, several months earlier than initially planned. [1]: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2033538 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2033538 [2]: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/19/969143015/long-term-studies-of-covid-19-vaccines-hurt-by-placebo-recipients-getting-immuni https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/19/9691430... [3]: https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/01/pfizer-and-biontech-speed-up-timeline-for-offering-covid-19-to-placebo-volunteers/ https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/01/pfizer-and-biontech-spee...
    - nawgz 5y ago
      None of these articles support the claim that "death rates are the same in fully vaccinated vs un/partially vaccinated populations". Probably because no such literature exists.
      - nanis 5y ago
        > None of these articles support the claim that "death rates are the same in fully vaccinated vs un/partially vaccinated populations". Probably because no such literature exists. The documents show that the placebo arms were terminated prematurely and the fact that there is agreement that they are still needed. Here is Moderna[1]. If you look at Table 19, Vaccine Placebo Death* 4/15184 (<0.1) 4/15165 (<0.1) Here is Pfizer[2]. If you look at Table 14, Vaccine Placebo Deaths 2/21621 (0.0) 4/21631 (0.0) Locating relevant information for other vaccines is left as an exercise for the readers. [1]: https://www.fda.gov/media/144434/download https://www.fda.gov/media/144434/download [2]: https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
nanis 5y ago
> It is obvious from hospitalization & fatality rates of unvaccinated vs. vaccinated people that the vaccine has already saved many lives Note: >> For this surveillance, a vaccine breakthrough infection is defined as the detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA or antigen in a respiratory specimen collected from a person ≥14 days after receipt of all recommended doses of an FDA-authorized COVID-19 vaccine.[1] Officially, the "unvaccinated" is a mishmash of three groups: a) received no doses; b) received one dose; and c) received two doses but less than two weeks passed since second dose. Therefore, the comparisons of the "vaccinated" and "unvaccinated" rates are confounded by the fact that the latter group includes substantial numbers of people who have been injected with the vaccine. Note that the breakthrough infection rate seems to be about 0.01%: > A total of 10,262 SARS-CoV-2 vaccine breakthrough infections had been reported from 46 U.S. states and territories as of April 30, 2021. ... > As of April 30, 2021, approximately 101 million persons in the United States had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19. If memory serves me, the "eager to get the shot" crowd were not very eager to circulate in the population by April 30. I do not know how many break through infections have occurred since then and there isn't much clarity around the question of side-effects. Also, note that while breakthrough infection in measles-vaccinated individuals result in low viral load[2], the exact opposite seems to be true for the Covid19 vaccines. [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7021e3.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7021e3.htm [2]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6628760/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6628760/

by nawgz 5y ago

breck 5y ago

> In no world is this statement justifiable. It is obvious I have an idea. What if we did a randomized control placebo group and compared death rates. That is the gold standard, right? Well they did that, and the placebo group and vaccine group had the same death rate (their next move then was to end the placebo group). I would be surprised if it turns out the vaccines don't save lives, but I haven't seen any clear cut proof that they are, given that the one experiment that would have proven it conclusively didn't, and then was ended early. So I think it's a perfectly justifiable statement and point of view.

nawgz 5y ago
> they did that, and the placebo group and vaccine group had the same death rate (their next move then was to end the placebo group). Who is "they" and why did you not source this claim? Regardless, given the current state where 99% of people hospitalized with COVID are unvaccinated, I find it nearly impossible to imagine the idea that "death rates are the same between vaccinated & unvaccinated" wouldn't just immediately fall apart under your proposed experiment.
- nanis 5y ago
  Placebo-Controlled Trials of Covid-19 Vaccines — Why We Still Need Them[1]. Long-Term Studies Of COVID-19 Vaccines Hurt By Placebo Recipients Getting Immunized[2]: > Tens of thousands of people who volunteered to be in studies of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines are still participating in follow-up research. But some key questions won't be easily answered, because many people who had been in the placebo group have now opted to take the vaccine. Pfizer and BioNTech speed up timeline for offering Covid-19 vaccine to placebo volunteers[3]: > Pfizer and its partner BioNTech plan to offer their Covid-19 vaccine to any clinical trial volunteer who received placebo by March 1, several months earlier than initially planned. [1]: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2033538 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2033538 [2]: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/19/969143015/long-term-studies-of-covid-19-vaccines-hurt-by-placebo-recipients-getting-immuni https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/19/9691430... [3]: https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/01/pfizer-and-biontech-speed-up-timeline-for-offering-covid-19-to-placebo-volunteers/ https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/01/pfizer-and-biontech-spee...
  - nawgz 5y ago
    None of these articles support the claim that "death rates are the same in fully vaccinated vs un/partially vaccinated populations". Probably because no such literature exists.
    - nanis 5y ago
      > None of these articles support the claim that "death rates are the same in fully vaccinated vs un/partially vaccinated populations". Probably because no such literature exists. The documents show that the placebo arms were terminated prematurely and the fact that there is agreement that they are still needed. Here is Moderna[1]. If you look at Table 19, Vaccine Placebo Death* 4/15184 (<0.1) 4/15165 (<0.1) Here is Pfizer[2]. If you look at Table 14, Vaccine Placebo Deaths 2/21621 (0.0) 4/21631 (0.0) Locating relevant information for other vaccines is left as an exercise for the readers. [1]: https://www.fda.gov/media/144434/download https://www.fda.gov/media/144434/download [2]: https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

nanis 5y ago

> It is obvious from hospitalization & fatality rates of unvaccinated vs. vaccinated people that the vaccine has already saved many lives Note: >> For this surveillance, a vaccine breakthrough infection is defined as the detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA or antigen in a respiratory specimen collected from a person ≥14 days after receipt of all recommended doses of an FDA-authorized COVID-19 vaccine.[1] Officially, the "unvaccinated" is a mishmash of three groups: a) received no doses; b) received one dose; and c) received two doses but less than two weeks passed since second dose. Therefore, the comparisons of the "vaccinated" and "unvaccinated" rates are confounded by the fact that the latter group includes substantial numbers of people who have been injected with the vaccine. Note that the breakthrough infection rate seems to be about 0.01%: > A total of 10,262 SARS-CoV-2 vaccine breakthrough infections had been reported from 46 U.S. states and territories as of April 30, 2021. ... > As of April 30, 2021, approximately 101 million persons in the United States had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19. If memory serves me, the "eager to get the shot" crowd were not very eager to circulate in the population by April 30. I do not know how many break through infections have occurred since then and there isn't much clarity around the question of side-effects. Also, note that while breakthrough infection in measles-vaccinated individuals result in low viral load[2], the exact opposite seems to be true for the Covid19 vaccines. [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7021e3.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7021e3.htm [2]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6628760/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6628760/