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- I don't want to eat. - You need food. - Well, not _this_ food and not necessarily at this moment in time. Whether these particular vaccines are saving any

by nanis 5y ago

- I don't want to eat. - You need food. - Well, not _this_ food and not necessarily at this moment in time. Whether these particular vaccines are saving any lives is an open question. Given that 1) Given the number of deaths in the two major waves in the U.S. (Spring 2020 and Winter 2020-21) and the timing of most of the vaccinations, it is not clear how much of the improvement is due to vaccination and how much of the effect is due to a wave burning out. Over the long term, are these going to be as effective as measles vaccines? There is no way to know. However, there is some indication that the time between the first and second injection is particularly risky. Also, I would love to see a breakdown of how many of the "unvaccinated" are people who had their first shot and waiting for the second, or people who had their second shot, but two weeks have not passed. It is not unreasonable for people to want to wait and see before diving head first into the "volunteer for experimental treatment" end of the pool.

mavhc 5y ago
Not experimental when a billion people have had it. That's a 1000 times more than most medications
- throwawayboise 5y ago
  Yes but 999 million of those people are not being clinically monitored and side-effects/reactions to the vaccine are being reported anecdotally and are not really verifiable.
nawgz 5y ago
> Whether these particular vaccines are saving any lives is an open question In no world is this statement justifiable. It is obvious from hospitalization & fatality rates of unvaccinated vs. vaccinated people that the vaccine has already saved many lives and was also probably a strong contributor to that "wave burnout" in the first place, especially looking at a country like Canada > there is some indication that the time between the first and second injection is particularly risky. There is no indication that getting one shot puts you in a "particularly risky" position. It is clear the vaccine only achieves partial effectiveness in this time, but that is not "particularly risky", that's slightly reduced risk against the null hypothesis of being unvaccinated. I challenge you to post any literature which shows anything about increased susceptibility of one shot vs no shots. > It is not unreasonable for people to want to wait Tell me, what numbers have you set in your head to make it reasonable to "trust" the vaccination? To me, seeing the Phase 3 trials without significant side effects was plenty. Now, we have probably 10+x that data over 2-3x the timespan, and the risk picture has not changed. What tipping point(s) will you consider?
- breck 5y ago
  > In no world is this statement justifiable. It is obvious I have an idea. What if we did a randomized control placebo group and compared death rates. That is the gold standard, right? Well they did that, and the placebo group and vaccine group had the same death rate (their next move then was to end the placebo group). I would be surprised if it turns out the vaccines don't save lives, but I haven't seen any clear cut proof that they are, given that the one experiment that would have proven it conclusively didn't, and then was ended early. So I think it's a perfectly justifiable statement and point of view.
  - nawgz 5y ago
    > they did that, and the placebo group and vaccine group had the same death rate (their next move then was to end the placebo group). Who is "they" and why did you not source this claim? Regardless, given the current state where 99% of people hospitalized with COVID are unvaccinated, I find it nearly impossible to imagine the idea that "death rates are the same between vaccinated & unvaccinated" wouldn't just immediately fall apart under your proposed experiment.
    - nanis 5y ago
      Placebo-Controlled Trials of Covid-19 Vaccines — Why We Still Need Them[1]. Long-Term Studies Of COVID-19 Vaccines Hurt By Placebo Recipients Getting Immunized[2]: > Tens of thousands of people who volunteered to be in studies of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines are still participating in follow-up research. But some key questions won't be easily answered, because many people who had been in the placebo group have now opted to take the vaccine. Pfizer and BioNTech speed up timeline for offering Covid-19 vaccine to placebo volunteers[3]: > Pfizer and its partner BioNTech plan to offer their Covid-19 vaccine to any clinical trial volunteer who received placebo by March 1, several months earlier than initially planned. [1]: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2033538 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2033538 [2]: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/19/969143015/long-term-studies-of-covid-19-vaccines-hurt-by-placebo-recipients-getting-immuni https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/19/9691430... [3]: https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/01/pfizer-and-biontech-speed-up-timeline-for-offering-covid-19-to-placebo-volunteers/ https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/01/pfizer-and-biontech-spee...

by nanis 5y ago

mavhc 5y ago

Not experimental when a billion people have had it. That's a 1000 times more than most medications

throwawayboise 5y ago
Yes but 999 million of those people are not being clinically monitored and side-effects/reactions to the vaccine are being reported anecdotally and are not really verifiable.

nawgz 5y ago

> Whether these particular vaccines are saving any lives is an open question In no world is this statement justifiable. It is obvious from hospitalization & fatality rates of unvaccinated vs. vaccinated people that the vaccine has already saved many lives and was also probably a strong contributor to that "wave burnout" in the first place, especially looking at a country like Canada > there is some indication that the time between the first and second injection is particularly risky. There is no indication that getting one shot puts you in a "particularly risky" position. It is clear the vaccine only achieves partial effectiveness in this time, but that is not "particularly risky", that's slightly reduced risk against the null hypothesis of being unvaccinated. I challenge you to post any literature which shows anything about increased susceptibility of one shot vs no shots. > It is not unreasonable for people to want to wait Tell me, what numbers have you set in your head to make it reasonable to "trust" the vaccination? To me, seeing the Phase 3 trials without significant side effects was plenty. Now, we have probably 10+x that data over 2-3x the timespan, and the risk picture has not changed. What tipping point(s) will you consider?

breck 5y ago
> In no world is this statement justifiable. It is obvious I have an idea. What if we did a randomized control placebo group and compared death rates. That is the gold standard, right? Well they did that, and the placebo group and vaccine group had the same death rate (their next move then was to end the placebo group). I would be surprised if it turns out the vaccines don't save lives, but I haven't seen any clear cut proof that they are, given that the one experiment that would have proven it conclusively didn't, and then was ended early. So I think it's a perfectly justifiable statement and point of view.
- nawgz 5y ago
  > they did that, and the placebo group and vaccine group had the same death rate (their next move then was to end the placebo group). Who is "they" and why did you not source this claim? Regardless, given the current state where 99% of people hospitalized with COVID are unvaccinated, I find it nearly impossible to imagine the idea that "death rates are the same between vaccinated & unvaccinated" wouldn't just immediately fall apart under your proposed experiment.
  - nanis 5y ago
    Placebo-Controlled Trials of Covid-19 Vaccines — Why We Still Need Them[1]. Long-Term Studies Of COVID-19 Vaccines Hurt By Placebo Recipients Getting Immunized[2]: > Tens of thousands of people who volunteered to be in studies of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines are still participating in follow-up research. But some key questions won't be easily answered, because many people who had been in the placebo group have now opted to take the vaccine. Pfizer and BioNTech speed up timeline for offering Covid-19 vaccine to placebo volunteers[3]: > Pfizer and its partner BioNTech plan to offer their Covid-19 vaccine to any clinical trial volunteer who received placebo by March 1, several months earlier than initially planned. [1]: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2033538 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2033538 [2]: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/19/969143015/long-term-studies-of-covid-19-vaccines-hurt-by-placebo-recipients-getting-immuni https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/19/9691430... [3]: https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/01/pfizer-and-biontech-speed-up-timeline-for-offering-covid-19-to-placebo-volunteers/ https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/01/pfizer-and-biontech-spee...