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Toyota should pull an Intel, and become the TSMC of automobiles. I've waggishly said I'd buy a Tesla made by Toyota. Surely there are other EV efforts that woul

Toyota should pull an Intel, and become the TSMC of automobiles. I've waggishly said I'd buy a Tesla made by Toyota. Surely there are other EV efforts that would benefit from Toyota's manufacturing prowess and capacity. -- Solid hydrogen fuels will be the next wave. Specifically non-gaseous, before anyone has a spaz attack. We know! Storage, transportation, distribution of H2 is not practical. Plasma Kinetics' has a light activated fuel cell. https://plasmakinetics.com https://plasmakinetics.com There are many other nanomaterial research efforts. Like consumable silicas and reusable graphenes. Am less than noob, so can't guess which notions have most potential. Pay attention to the technology maturation lifecycle. Solid hydrogen today is maybe comparable to Li-ion in 2005. Imagine we hit "peak" Li-ion around 2030, producing 75 tWh annually. (Amazing, right?) That'd buy us some time to develop solid hydrogen, which will hopefully be shipping in actual products by then. And hopefully address use cases and applications poorly served by Li-ion. Like trucking, rail, maritime, whatever. Remove any remaining excuses for the die-hard fossil fuel hold outs. -- Toyota just got the timing wrong. And maybe they were too optimistic about H2. Trying to hold back EV is a dick move. Pisses me off. Not having a portfolio of technology platforms, something to span the gap from hybrids to hydrogen, was just incompetent.

sokoloff 5y ago
How much of Toyota's very good outcomes are a matter of Toyota manufacturing versus Toyota design (to including continual improvement based on experience in the field)? Many of Tesla's teething pains are self-inflicted at the design stage rather than being solely a manufacturing problem.
- specialist 5y ago
  As a huge fan, I'm very keen to hear the story of Toyota. How'd they lose their edge? Is decline inevitable once you peak? Is death-by-bureaucracy just what happens once you have entrenched stakeholders? I now feel that Tesla is more Toyota than Toyota (continuous improvement). And becoming more Apple than Apple (monopsony). Plus a dash of Samsung (vertical integration). [h/t Sandy Munro's teardowns, The Limiting Factor, both on youtube.] -- Tesla somehow champions Wright's Law better than any one else. (Coupled with financial acumen bordering on fraud.) They're maniacal about efficiency, ramping up production, above all else. They eschew model years and just roll out improvements as fast as possible. I've never worked at place that both scaled up and focused cost reduction; it was always either-or. Even with the human cost, it's kind of exciting. (I worked in hypergrowth orgs in my 20s, at great personal cost. If I was 20 again, I'd be at Tesla (or SpaceX).) -- Tesla has also embraced Apple's monopsony strategy. For iPod, Apple bought out all mini HDDs. For unibody laptops, Apple bought every milling machine. You couldn't compete even if you wanted to. Why did Apple pursue thinness, past the point of reason? Because they could and no one else could copy them. In the same way, Tesla has embraced casting giant parts, by using the giant gigapresses. Acknowledging the obvious benefits like reduced part counts, improved quality... The deeper genius is any one who wants to copy them has to wait years to even buy their own gigapress. I'm sure there are other steps in their production pipeline which competitors cannot easily copy. Because the tools, materials, skills simply are not available at any cost. -- Tesla will be mining their own lithium. That's insane! Who else in the world will own the entire lifecycle of their products? And because Tesla is so vertically integrated, they'll be able to optimize globally. They'll have manufacturing steps done on site at the mines. Reducing shipping and handling costs. And since Tesla makes their own solar panels, they'll provide their own power. Such audacity! -- Plus some kind of crazy. Their misadventures with automation and robots should have killed the company. And yet they pivoted, compressing 40 years of manufacturing experience into 5 years. How the hell did Tesla pull it off? They've had so many near death experiences. And at every critical juncture, they double down. I feel like there's a lesson here, but I have no clue what it might be.
nebula8804 5y ago
Plasma Kinetics is a company I only hear about in the presence of one Sandy Munro. Is there anything more than just some renders and hypothetical spec sheets? >Toyota should pull an Intel, and become the TSMC of automobiles. I've waggishly said I'd buy a Tesla made by Toyota. Surely there are other EV efforts that would benefit from Toyota's manufacturing prowess and capacity. We already have that. Magna Steyr builds custom runs for many auto companies big and small.
nickik 5y ago
> Surely there are other EV efforts that would benefit from Toyota's manufacturing prowess and capacity. They are not actually that exceptional anymore. At best they are marginally better. Tesla new architecture of structural cells in a pack connected to massive castings is far better then Toyota EV have. > Solid hydrogen fuels will be the next wave. I really don't think that will be the cast. > Imagine we hit "peak" Li-ion around 2030, producing 75 tWh annually. (Amazing, right?) > From their website: Storage is 30% lighter, 7% smaller, and 17% less expensive than Lithium-ion battery per kWh. By the time this technology is even remotely feasible. Li-Air, Li-Sulfer batteries and a whole bunch of other potential chemistries could be ready. All these more advanced chemistries can beat these advantages without issue. Li-Sulfer battery could be 2-4x as dense ad current LiIon far smaller and far cheaper. Even current High Nickel Cathode-Silicon Anode that will roll into the market will beat the numbers advertised by the company. Why would anybody go refuel with solid hydrogen when you can have better range then Tesla Model S with a battery small battery pack you can put in your trunk and a tiny powerful EV motor? A car based on the technology is simply worst along every single dimension.
- specialist 5y ago
  I agree with you that betting against lithium is dumb. The ceiling is probably a lot higher yet. I forget the rationale for why Toyota (and by extension Japan) bet on hydrogen. Probably something to do with access to resources. Constraints that apply to many economies. We simply have to get off fossil fuels. Zero carbon will involve hydrogen. Maybe not personal transportation. But definitely agriculture. And maybe manufacturing, heavy transportation. At some point we'll have excess electricity. Using that to produce methane (carbon capture) and ammonia (replace fossil fuels) has to happen. Then we'll have abundant cheap hydrogen. Maybe not solid hydrogen fuel cells. Maybe ammonia is practical enough. Optimistic me knows someone(s) will do something useful.
  - Hypx_ 5y ago
    Hydrogen is simple a better element to build a battery around than lithium. That and more availability and less dependency on rare elements.
WorldMaker 5y ago
> Toyota should pull an Intel, and become the TSMC of automobiles. I've waggishly said I'd buy a Tesla made by Toyota. Surely there are other EV efforts that would benefit from Toyota's manufacturing prowess and capacity. Arguably Tesla already bought that in spirit if not fact by acquiring the NUMMI plant from Toyota. (The NUMMI plant was the co-venture Toyota built in Fremont, CA in the 80s with General Motors that built Geo brand vehicles and taught 90s GM some of Toyota's agility in manufacturing. Tesla likely didn't get as much direct experience from Toyota in buying the several years shut-down plant at that point, but symbolically it feels related.)

sokoloff 5y ago

How much of Toyota's very good outcomes are a matter of Toyota manufacturing versus Toyota design (to including continual improvement based on experience in the field)? Many of Tesla's teething pains are self-inflicted at the design stage rather than being solely a manufacturing problem.

specialist 5y ago
As a huge fan, I'm very keen to hear the story of Toyota. How'd they lose their edge? Is decline inevitable once you peak? Is death-by-bureaucracy just what happens once you have entrenched stakeholders? I now feel that Tesla is more Toyota than Toyota (continuous improvement). And becoming more Apple than Apple (monopsony). Plus a dash of Samsung (vertical integration). [h/t Sandy Munro's teardowns, The Limiting Factor, both on youtube.] -- Tesla somehow champions Wright's Law better than any one else. (Coupled with financial acumen bordering on fraud.) They're maniacal about efficiency, ramping up production, above all else. They eschew model years and just roll out improvements as fast as possible. I've never worked at place that both scaled up and focused cost reduction; it was always either-or. Even with the human cost, it's kind of exciting. (I worked in hypergrowth orgs in my 20s, at great personal cost. If I was 20 again, I'd be at Tesla (or SpaceX).) -- Tesla has also embraced Apple's monopsony strategy. For iPod, Apple bought out all mini HDDs. For unibody laptops, Apple bought every milling machine. You couldn't compete even if you wanted to. Why did Apple pursue thinness, past the point of reason? Because they could and no one else could copy them. In the same way, Tesla has embraced casting giant parts, by using the giant gigapresses. Acknowledging the obvious benefits like reduced part counts, improved quality... The deeper genius is any one who wants to copy them has to wait years to even buy their own gigapress. I'm sure there are other steps in their production pipeline which competitors cannot easily copy. Because the tools, materials, skills simply are not available at any cost. -- Tesla will be mining their own lithium. That's insane! Who else in the world will own the entire lifecycle of their products? And because Tesla is so vertically integrated, they'll be able to optimize globally. They'll have manufacturing steps done on site at the mines. Reducing shipping and handling costs. And since Tesla makes their own solar panels, they'll provide their own power. Such audacity! -- Plus some kind of crazy. Their misadventures with automation and robots should have killed the company. And yet they pivoted, compressing 40 years of manufacturing experience into 5 years. How the hell did Tesla pull it off? They've had so many near death experiences. And at every critical juncture, they double down. I feel like there's a lesson here, but I have no clue what it might be.

nebula8804 5y ago

Plasma Kinetics is a company I only hear about in the presence of one Sandy Munro. Is there anything more than just some renders and hypothetical spec sheets? >Toyota should pull an Intel, and become the TSMC of automobiles. I've waggishly said I'd buy a Tesla made by Toyota. Surely there are other EV efforts that would benefit from Toyota's manufacturing prowess and capacity. We already have that. Magna Steyr builds custom runs for many auto companies big and small.

nickik 5y ago

> Surely there are other EV efforts that would benefit from Toyota's manufacturing prowess and capacity. They are not actually that exceptional anymore. At best they are marginally better. Tesla new architecture of structural cells in a pack connected to massive castings is far better then Toyota EV have. > Solid hydrogen fuels will be the next wave. I really don't think that will be the cast. > Imagine we hit "peak" Li-ion around 2030, producing 75 tWh annually. (Amazing, right?) > From their website: Storage is 30% lighter, 7% smaller, and 17% less expensive than Lithium-ion battery per kWh. By the time this technology is even remotely feasible. Li-Air, Li-Sulfer batteries and a whole bunch of other potential chemistries could be ready. All these more advanced chemistries can beat these advantages without issue. Li-Sulfer battery could be 2-4x as dense ad current LiIon far smaller and far cheaper. Even current High Nickel Cathode-Silicon Anode that will roll into the market will beat the numbers advertised by the company. Why would anybody go refuel with solid hydrogen when you can have better range then Tesla Model S with a battery small battery pack you can put in your trunk and a tiny powerful EV motor? A car based on the technology is simply worst along every single dimension.

specialist 5y ago
I agree with you that betting against lithium is dumb. The ceiling is probably a lot higher yet. I forget the rationale for why Toyota (and by extension Japan) bet on hydrogen. Probably something to do with access to resources. Constraints that apply to many economies. We simply have to get off fossil fuels. Zero carbon will involve hydrogen. Maybe not personal transportation. But definitely agriculture. And maybe manufacturing, heavy transportation. At some point we'll have excess electricity. Using that to produce methane (carbon capture) and ammonia (replace fossil fuels) has to happen. Then we'll have abundant cheap hydrogen. Maybe not solid hydrogen fuel cells. Maybe ammonia is practical enough. Optimistic me knows someone(s) will do something useful.
- Hypx_ 5y ago
  Hydrogen is simple a better element to build a battery around than lithium. That and more availability and less dependency on rare elements.

WorldMaker 5y ago

> Toyota should pull an Intel, and become the TSMC of automobiles. I've waggishly said I'd buy a Tesla made by Toyota. Surely there are other EV efforts that would benefit from Toyota's manufacturing prowess and capacity. Arguably Tesla already bought that in spirit if not fact by acquiring the NUMMI plant from Toyota. (The NUMMI plant was the co-venture Toyota built in Fremont, CA in the 80s with General Motors that built Geo brand vehicles and taught 90s GM some of Toyota's agility in manufacturing. Tesla likely didn't get as much direct experience from Toyota in buying the several years shut-down plant at that point, but symbolically it feels related.)