4 ms·

Even in the countries with the highest adoption, it's only around 50% https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html#tab=per-country-ipv6-adoption https://

Even in the countries with the highest adoption, it's only around 50% https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html#tab=per-country-ipv6-adoption https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html#tab=per-...

scratcheee 5y ago
At the current rate (approximately linear over the last 10 years), in just 30 more years we'll have 100% adoption. Realistically adoption will slow down if nothing changes, everyone willing to put the effort in for zero immediate reward has already done so, and some will allow their support to degrade due to low usage. At some point I guess ipv4 availability will really start to collapse and adoption will speed up again. Not sure which will come first to be honest, but better if adoption is relatively high when the shit evebtually hits the fan, to avoid the temptation of insane NAT solutions.
- mprovost 5y ago
  Adoption is already slowing down, by half in 2020 vs 2019. https://blog.apnic.net/2021/02/08/ipv6-in-2020/ https://blog.apnic.net/2021/02/08/ipv6-in-2020/
  - GolDDranks 5y ago
    I bet that at some point we'll have another inflection point, as the IPv4 prices soar and the IPv6 becomes commonplace enough for some (free/hobbyist-run?) services to say: "sorry, IPv6 only".
    - netr0ute 5y ago
      Why even pay for IPv4 addresses? Who says who gets to "use" them?
      - ShrigmaMale 5y ago
        Markets generally are good for determining allocation of scarce resources. They push people with the ability to substitute to do that, in this case, use ipv6. Pay for ipv4 so nobody takes more than he needs. Imperfect but probably the least bad option, just waiting to get ipv6 over time hasnt worked so maybe scarcity and high prices do it.
        netr0ute 5y ago
        How do you even pay for IPv4? You should just be able to advertise BGP routes to whatever you want.
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
    - mprovost 5y ago
      An inflexion point can go either way, the question is have we already passed that point with v6 or is this the start of a decline that ends with it failing to replace v4? (Stealing this from Geoff Huston, see page 41 of his presentation [0]) [0] https://www.potaroo.net/presentations/2021-03-02-ipv6-deployment-status-apnic51.pdf https://www.potaroo.net/presentations/2021-03-02-ipv6-deploy...
    - oblio 5y ago
      You're quite the optimist. Or someone less tech savvy but legally savvy figures out that IPv4s are scarce resources, just like, for example, housing, and finds a way to impose their use through regulation in some contexts and to ban their use in other contexts.
- hutrdvnj 5y ago
  > At some point I guess ipv4 availability will really start to collapse and adoption will speed up again. I think this will be more like a linear function. As the IPv4 prices increase, the IPv6 adoption increases until it reaches 100%. I don't think that there will be a collapse.
DaiPlusPlus 5y ago
IPv6 adoption figures are artificially inflated by LTE and 5G smartphone connections (which are invariably IPv6) whereas landline/DSL/DOCSIS connections are still IPv4 on so many ISPs. I'll say one thing about Comcast in the US: they have atrocious customer service, scummy upselling, and that horrid wi-fi network sharing... but they do 2 things that mean I'll forever give them a free-pass: 1. They have CBC channels in the US so I can watch the Olympics without watching NBC's horribly dumbed-down, artificially time-shifted, and condescending feed. 2. They have a rock solid IPv6 network for everyone.
sedatk 5y ago
And many countries have zero adoption.

scratcheee 5y ago

At the current rate (approximately linear over the last 10 years), in just 30 more years we'll have 100% adoption. Realistically adoption will slow down if nothing changes, everyone willing to put the effort in for zero immediate reward has already done so, and some will allow their support to degrade due to low usage. At some point I guess ipv4 availability will really start to collapse and adoption will speed up again. Not sure which will come first to be honest, but better if adoption is relatively high when the shit evebtually hits the fan, to avoid the temptation of insane NAT solutions.

mprovost 5y ago
Adoption is already slowing down, by half in 2020 vs 2019. https://blog.apnic.net/2021/02/08/ipv6-in-2020/ https://blog.apnic.net/2021/02/08/ipv6-in-2020/
- GolDDranks 5y ago
  I bet that at some point we'll have another inflection point, as the IPv4 prices soar and the IPv6 becomes commonplace enough for some (free/hobbyist-run?) services to say: "sorry, IPv6 only".
  - netr0ute 5y ago
    Why even pay for IPv4 addresses? Who says who gets to "use" them?
    - ShrigmaMale 5y ago
      Markets generally are good for determining allocation of scarce resources. They push people with the ability to substitute to do that, in this case, use ipv6. Pay for ipv4 so nobody takes more than he needs. Imperfect but probably the least bad option, just waiting to get ipv6 over time hasnt worked so maybe scarcity and high prices do it.
      - netr0ute 5y ago
        How do you even pay for IPv4? You should just be able to advertise BGP routes to whatever you want.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
  - mprovost 5y ago
    An inflexion point can go either way, the question is have we already passed that point with v6 or is this the start of a decline that ends with it failing to replace v4? (Stealing this from Geoff Huston, see page 41 of his presentation [0]) [0] https://www.potaroo.net/presentations/2021-03-02-ipv6-deployment-status-apnic51.pdf https://www.potaroo.net/presentations/2021-03-02-ipv6-deploy...
  - oblio 5y ago
    You're quite the optimist. Or someone less tech savvy but legally savvy figures out that IPv4s are scarce resources, just like, for example, housing, and finds a way to impose their use through regulation in some contexts and to ban their use in other contexts.
hutrdvnj 5y ago
> At some point I guess ipv4 availability will really start to collapse and adoption will speed up again. I think this will be more like a linear function. As the IPv4 prices increase, the IPv6 adoption increases until it reaches 100%. I don't think that there will be a collapse.

DaiPlusPlus 5y ago

IPv6 adoption figures are artificially inflated by LTE and 5G smartphone connections (which are invariably IPv6) whereas landline/DSL/DOCSIS connections are still IPv4 on so many ISPs. I'll say one thing about Comcast in the US: they have atrocious customer service, scummy upselling, and that horrid wi-fi network sharing... but they do 2 things that mean I'll forever give them a free-pass: 1. They have CBC channels in the US so I can watch the Olympics without watching NBC's horribly dumbed-down, artificially time-shifted, and condescending feed. 2. They have a rock solid IPv6 network for everyone.

sedatk 5y ago

And many countries have zero adoption.