3 ms·

Lots of people took monetary obligations (mortgages mostly) thinking they'll make 6 figures for the next 20-30 years...what happens if that's no longer true?

KingMachiavelli 5y ago
Currently, mortgage debt evaporates faster from inflation/wage growth faster than outsourcing can realistically occur. In any case I don't see why software engineering should be exempt when the manufacturing and textile industries hit hard by outsourcing and automation. It sucks but that's just how capitalism works. SE's would probably have an easier time adapting than people in those industries anyway. There's a lot of factors slowing down the outsourcing of CS jobs. The most talented pretty much always immigrate to the US because of higher wages and higher standards of living. Security concerns mean a lot can't be outsourced at all. Language & cultural differences give the US & western countries a huge hold on CS education. Etc. Plus a lot of jobs could be WFH 99% of the time but the last 1% is very important. Even in the most extreme push of WFH or remote work, outsourcing would just be jobs moving from high COL areas like SF to lower COL areas of the US. Same culture/language, minimal timezone differences, etc. The pendulum is still very far on the side of favoring in-office work giving a few select areas a huge advantage & driving COL in those areas. The US is a huge country; even a 2x increase in WFH jobs wouldn't exhaust the number of low COL areas in the US.
- joelbluminator 5y ago
  You raise good points. I'll just counter this: you say currently and that's a very important word. Currently things are good in tech, in fact never have been better. Almost any startup with half decent product raises tens, often hundreds of millions of dollars with ease. With this loose finance (the causes of which are the low interest rate) of course paying a lot for developers doesn't matter much. I'm talking about a scenario in which if (when?) a lot of hot air is released from this bubble. This will terminate many companies that don't really produce much and will cause the rest to cut costs aggressively. I guess something similar to the dot com bubble only I think this time it will be worse. I do agree with you though that if the abundance of money continues, for the reasons you listed the current dynamic will probably prevail. After reading what I just wrote I fully realize this is one of those things that is impossible to predict and pointless to worry about. It can happen tomorrow, in 10 years or maybe never.

KingMachiavelli 5y ago

Currently, mortgage debt evaporates faster from inflation/wage growth faster than outsourcing can realistically occur. In any case I don't see why software engineering should be exempt when the manufacturing and textile industries hit hard by outsourcing and automation. It sucks but that's just how capitalism works. SE's would probably have an easier time adapting than people in those industries anyway. There's a lot of factors slowing down the outsourcing of CS jobs. The most talented pretty much always immigrate to the US because of higher wages and higher standards of living. Security concerns mean a lot can't be outsourced at all. Language & cultural differences give the US & western countries a huge hold on CS education. Etc. Plus a lot of jobs could be WFH 99% of the time but the last 1% is very important. Even in the most extreme push of WFH or remote work, outsourcing would just be jobs moving from high COL areas like SF to lower COL areas of the US. Same culture/language, minimal timezone differences, etc. The pendulum is still very far on the side of favoring in-office work giving a few select areas a huge advantage & driving COL in those areas. The US is a huge country; even a 2x increase in WFH jobs wouldn't exhaust the number of low COL areas in the US.

joelbluminator 5y ago
You raise good points. I'll just counter this: you say currently and that's a very important word. Currently things are good in tech, in fact never have been better. Almost any startup with half decent product raises tens, often hundreds of millions of dollars with ease. With this loose finance (the causes of which are the low interest rate) of course paying a lot for developers doesn't matter much. I'm talking about a scenario in which if (when?) a lot of hot air is released from this bubble. This will terminate many companies that don't really produce much and will cause the rest to cut costs aggressively. I guess something similar to the dot com bubble only I think this time it will be worse. I do agree with you though that if the abundance of money continues, for the reasons you listed the current dynamic will probably prevail. After reading what I just wrote I fully realize this is one of those things that is impossible to predict and pointless to worry about. It can happen tomorrow, in 10 years or maybe never.