Imamoglu appears to be making much more headway into the conservative circles than any other secular leader, so it’s not obvious to me that he would lose if he

Imamoglu appears to be making much more headway into the conservative circles than any other secular leader, so it’s not obvious to me that he would lose if he tried. However, he is also a new name in Turkish politics, and only Istanbulites regularly hear of his name. While Istanbul is the heart of Turkey it’s not so dominant in a way that winning Istanbul practically guarantees the race — it doesn’t. In short, I’m hopeful about him, and he’s already doing a good job in the second most powerful post in TR in terms of visibility. I’m not entirely sure his time for presidency has come yet, but if he thinks it has, he would have a fair shot at it. > Is there a reason to worry about a possible coup or large scale voting fraud if Erdogan is likely to lose? Turkish elections are one of the most closely watched in the world by international observers and they have a world-leading participation rate at 80+%, which is unheard of in most western democracies. It likely very hard to pull off large scale election fraud. > The current constitution of Turkey gives a lot of power to the President. Is the opposition ready to draft a new constitution with more checks and balances? Yes, this is the priority #1 for any incoming president that would not be Erdogan. He wanted the system to be essentially an elected emperorship by way of the Holy Roman Empire and he got unexpectedly close. That needs to be patched up.