4 ms·

If you inflate infections, you are therefore are also inflating deaths, it's a 1 to X correlation.

javagram 5y ago
Wrong, all-cause death statistics are tracked separately from infections. See for instance https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
- nickthemagicman 5y ago
  How does reporting things that have nothing to do with covid separately have anything to do with it? Cause of illness is linked to cause of death and they will track proportionally.
  - javagram 5y ago
    You can see that covid-19 related deaths aren’t “inflated” by comparing the numbers to excess deaths and seeing they correlate (not just nationally, but by region and time). When 100,000 people are reported to die of covid in the USA or another western country with a high quality reporting system, in the same region and time around 100,000 more deaths from any cause are recorded than would normally be expected. Therefore, there’s no reason to believe the covid-19 deaths are inflated (the “with covid not from covid” theory). Edit: see for instance https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/core/lw/2.0/html/tileshop_pmc/tileshop_pmc_inline.html?title=Click%20on%20image%20to%20zoom&p=PMC3&id=8185602_nihpp-2021.01.27.21250604v3-f0004.jpg https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/core/lw/2.0/html/tileshop_pmc/t... which is visually quite striking. Figure found in https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7852240/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7852240/
    - nickthemagicman 5y ago
      Ah that's interesting. Thanks for sharing. Here's a good visualization as well. That looks pretty indisputable. https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid "The raw death count helps give us a sense of scale: for example, the US suffered roughly 360,000 more deaths than the five-year average between 26 January and 3 October 2020, compared to 209,000 confirmed COVID-19 deaths during that period." The Covid death counts may be correct or a even little lower than expected then. Further confirms my thoughts that I would not like to be an 80 year old with two co-morbidities around Covid.
      - pwinnski 5y ago
        So you quote an eight-month figure, ignoring the nearly-nine months since then, and still cling to your narrative even when presented with facts that directly contradict your earlier assertions. Okay. Try some math: 360,000 deaths higher than average over 251 days is 1434 excess deaths per day. From Oct 4 through yesterday is another 296 days, and 1434x296=424,464, so we're talking about a scale of around 780,000, which very much supports the total US COVID death count of 627,370. If you think that's all 80-year-olds with multiple pre-existing conditions, and that you therefore have nothing to worry about, then I hope for your sake and the sake of those around you that you aren't proven wrong by an ICU stay.
        nickthemagicman 5y ago
        ???? Read my comment again.

Wrong, all-cause death statistics are tracked separately from infections. See for instance https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

nickthemagicman 5y ago
How does reporting things that have nothing to do with covid separately have anything to do with it? Cause of illness is linked to cause of death and they will track proportionally.
- javagram 5y ago
  You can see that covid-19 related deaths aren’t “inflated” by comparing the numbers to excess deaths and seeing they correlate (not just nationally, but by region and time). When 100,000 people are reported to die of covid in the USA or another western country with a high quality reporting system, in the same region and time around 100,000 more deaths from any cause are recorded than would normally be expected. Therefore, there’s no reason to believe the covid-19 deaths are inflated (the “with covid not from covid” theory). Edit: see for instance https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/core/lw/2.0/html/tileshop_pmc/tileshop_pmc_inline.html?title=Click%20on%20image%20to%20zoom&p=PMC3&id=8185602_nihpp-2021.01.27.21250604v3-f0004.jpg https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/core/lw/2.0/html/tileshop_pmc/t... which is visually quite striking. Figure found in https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7852240/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7852240/
  - nickthemagicman 5y ago
    Ah that's interesting. Thanks for sharing. Here's a good visualization as well. That looks pretty indisputable. https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid "The raw death count helps give us a sense of scale: for example, the US suffered roughly 360,000 more deaths than the five-year average between 26 January and 3 October 2020, compared to 209,000 confirmed COVID-19 deaths during that period." The Covid death counts may be correct or a even little lower than expected then. Further confirms my thoughts that I would not like to be an 80 year old with two co-morbidities around Covid.
    - pwinnski 5y ago
      So you quote an eight-month figure, ignoring the nearly-nine months since then, and still cling to your narrative even when presented with facts that directly contradict your earlier assertions. Okay. Try some math: 360,000 deaths higher than average over 251 days is 1434 excess deaths per day. From Oct 4 through yesterday is another 296 days, and 1434x296=424,464, so we're talking about a scale of around 780,000, which very much supports the total US COVID death count of 627,370. If you think that's all 80-year-olds with multiple pre-existing conditions, and that you therefore have nothing to worry about, then I hope for your sake and the sake of those around you that you aren't proven wrong by an ICU stay.
      - nickthemagicman 5y ago
        ???? Read my comment again.