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> The big rig / semi market is the exact opposite of experiencing exponential growth Non of those are EV now. > EV sales are overwhelmingly replacement sales,
by nickik 5y ago
> The big rig / semi market is the exact opposite of experiencing exponential growth
Non of those are EV now.
> EV sales are overwhelmingly replacement sales, largely taking up the sales from the ICE vehicle market.
All those need to be replaced by EVs. Tesla has no ICE vehicles so for them its simply growth.
Tesla can scale EV faster and they can reach better margin then current companies. Currently these manufactures can subsidies their EV with ICE sales, but their ICE infrastructure will turn into a liability soon.
At the same time they build out global charging infrastructure to fuel all those cars giving them a long term income at great margin.
> What's Panasonic's entire battery business worth today? Now increase that 5x or 10x.
We are only just at 2% EV in the market and Panasonic is only a part of that market. Add grid and home storage, industrial vehicles and so on. And eventually also planes.
> Tesla is still at an inferior position to both Ford and GM when it comes to industrial scale
Who wouldn't want all those distributed factories with union workers demonstrating while giving most of the profits to the dealers and suppliers.
> (to say nothing of political connections).
Yeah California and Texas where Tesla produces all the jobs are politically so weak. Elon Musk is also not on of the most famous people in the world and a twitter profile more powerful then GM/Ford marketing budget.
> Tesla represents a very small share of the auto industry globally.
Yes and they are already at industry leading operating margin while still being comparatively small and they continue to grow very fast.
> The past decade was the easy part for Tesla, not the hard part.
And just continuing to produce ICE vehicles and ignoring EV was the easy part for the competition. Repeatably in history we have seen how difficult massive technology transitions are and how established players ran into a lot of issues.