3 ms·
Devil's advocate response: As I read it, the values here are the date that cherry blossom are first witnessed in the year. There's probably a bell-shaped distr
by quietbritishjim 5y ago
Devil's advocate response:
As I read it, the values here are the date that cherry blossom are first witnessed in the year. There's probably a bell-shaped distribution of when blossom appears on a given tree i.e. there will be a very small number of trees that bloom really early. If you have more people looking for it, then there's a greater chance that someone will spot a really exceptionally early tree. So an alternative explanation for the trend is just an increase in the Japanese population.
(Counter argument: when the population gets high enough that essentially all trees are witnessed, further population increases would have no further effect.)
- genericuser314 5y agoI don't think its "first witnessed", I think its 80% of blossoms are open. https://twitter.com/sayakasofiamori/status/1373956577607131141 https://twitter.com/sayakasofiamori/status/13739565776071311...
- quietbritishjim 5y agoAh you're right, I'm not sure how I got that impression
- RaketenStadt 5y agoNo, the values are the "full-flowering date" not the "first"
- pavlov 5y agoJapan's population has declined since 2010, so somehow this explanation would have to account for why fewer people see blossoms earlier.
- brokencode 5y agoI haven’t dug into the data set, but the title of the graph says “peak bloom”, not first bloom, implying that outliers don’t significantly affect the results.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]