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> Experts said it meant the national statistics, published daily on the government website and frequently referred to by ministers, may far overstate the levels

by pavon 5y ago

> Experts said it meant the national statistics, published daily on the government website and frequently referred to by ministers, may far overstate the levels of pressures on the NHS. I don't understand this part. Isn't the important number here the total number of people in the hospital (or ICU or other ward) relative to the total number that the hospital (or ICU or other ward) can accommodate? Or alternatively, the total excess relative to normal years. I can see the utility in differentiating these numbers for other reasons, although the accounting could be tricky, to handle cases where people are admitted for one thing then develop another, or show symptoms that could have a number of causes.

simonh 5y ago
The reason to population numbers and trends are important is to work out what's happening in the population, and therefore plan for dealing with changes in case load. Measuring current pressure on the NHS is important yes, but knowing that cases in the population are rising or not, and if so by how much, is also vital information for resource planning. Having said that, clearly the tests are being recalibrated and their usage adjusted as new information becomes available. These adjustments in tests seem to have increased accuracy. Isn't that what we want? There's no conspiracy or scandal here.
willyt 5y ago
> I don't understand this part. Isn't the important number here the total number of people in the hospital (or ICU or other ward) relative to the total number that the hospital (or ICU or other ward) can accommodate? Or alternatively, the total excess relative to normal years. I agree with this point and the article doesn't seem to mention this, surely the important statistic is number of in-patients per week comparing week by week with 2019. If it's much higher then there is a big problem regardless of whether these patients have covid or not as we haven't built any significant hospital capacity or trained a lot more medical staff since then.
beerandt 5y ago
"Available" beds/ hospital capacity is usually a floating number, and it's not an absolute capacity, it's just the instant capacity at that moment. It changes in response to demand. Hospitals don't count closed wards/wings/floors that can be staffed and "activated." Same goes for converting other areas/depts of the hospital to covid units. Which is why it's better to monitor absolute cases or deaths, not % "capacity".

by pavon 5y ago

simonh 5y ago

The reason to population numbers and trends are important is to work out what's happening in the population, and therefore plan for dealing with changes in case load. Measuring current pressure on the NHS is important yes, but knowing that cases in the population are rising or not, and if so by how much, is also vital information for resource planning. Having said that, clearly the tests are being recalibrated and their usage adjusted as new information becomes available. These adjustments in tests seem to have increased accuracy. Isn't that what we want? There's no conspiracy or scandal here.

willyt 5y ago

> I don't understand this part. Isn't the important number here the total number of people in the hospital (or ICU or other ward) relative to the total number that the hospital (or ICU or other ward) can accommodate? Or alternatively, the total excess relative to normal years. I agree with this point and the article doesn't seem to mention this, surely the important statistic is number of in-patients per week comparing week by week with 2019. If it's much higher then there is a big problem regardless of whether these patients have covid or not as we haven't built any significant hospital capacity or trained a lot more medical staff since then.

beerandt 5y ago

"Available" beds/ hospital capacity is usually a floating number, and it's not an absolute capacity, it's just the instant capacity at that moment. It changes in response to demand. Hospitals don't count closed wards/wings/floors that can be staffed and "activated." Same goes for converting other areas/depts of the hospital to covid units. Which is why it's better to monitor absolute cases or deaths, not % "capacity".