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> Our economic incentive to entangle ourselves in Taiwan is even greater, but the stakes of military confrontation with China would be more dangerous. > How mu
by baybal2 5y ago
> Our economic incentive to entangle ourselves in Taiwan is even greater, but the stakes of military confrontation with China would be more dangerous.
> How much would you pay to avert such a conflict -- or worse, to avert the consequences of acquiescing to China's expansionism?
These are questions easier to answer than what most people think.
There are countless unclassified defence studies with very good estimates of how much would USA loose in case of an all out war with a nuclear state for worst, medium, best scenarios. I'll encourage readers to check them themselves.
Washington defence planners are most well aware of these things.
The later question is much more important, and with more real world relevance.
> consequences of acquiescing to China's expansionism?
There is no limit on on how much "acquiescing" you can do before such states will come up with more claims.
Remember "Finlandisation" precluding the WW2, and how it ended.
Giving the most minimal concessions to such opponent will instantly lead to them wanting more, and more, until you will have to retaliate, but now against much stronger enemy.
There is no "strategy," no political trick that works against opponent planning to attack you from the start no matter what. All treaties, political manoeuvres, compromise moves, even overt tribute payments will be only delaying the inevitable encounter in cul de sac.
In Russia, people gave a simple way to characterise behaviour of such people: "A guy who wouldn't stop until punched in the face."
- distances 5y ago> Remember "Finlandisation" precluding the WW2, and how it ended. Finlandization means strong country affecting a small neighbour, not applicable to pre-WW2 appeasement policies.
- baybal2 5y agoFinlandization started very much before the WW2, as major power were making compromises with regional hegemons, acceding to their claims on their neighbours "as something natural" It's big power saying "let them have it" basically, and to disastrous results every time.
- distances 5y agoYes that happened, but that's not called Finlandization. I know this is pedantry now but the term is pretty specific and not applicable to countries of roughly equal power.