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Storage is flat to modestly in decline. Battery storage is a competitive, commodity business. Not sure how huge it will be.

nickik 5y ago
No it isn't. Look at year over year. They have massive demand they can't deliver. Quarter over Quarter grid storage is very depended on when project finish. > Battery storage is a competitive, commodity business. No isn't. There is really not that much Li-Ion grid storage being deployed right now and not by that many companies. That market is growing fast. > Not sure how huge it will be. The amount of needed grid storage is gigantic. Edit: Elon just said on the call that they are massively limited on production. Partly because of the chip issue, same chips are used in the cars and the cars have higher margin. But cell supply is also limited. So the demand is growing but they can't increase production as fast.
- marvin 5y ago
  Assuming that the world will eventually transition to 100% renewable energy, it's not unreasonable to estimate the eventual total market size to be higher than the world's nightly power consumption.
epistasis 5y ago
I agree that storage will be a commodity business, but so is oil and that seems to be fairly profitable. Battery construction is incredibly intricate and has a huuuuge amount of process tech. There's already a huge moat around it because of the level of knowledge needed and a severe lack of talent. That moat will only grow as more and more in house tech is developed for production and for chemistries. There's a solid chance that all the players of one of our biggest new economic sectors this century are already producing.
- cma 5y ago
  What's the moat? So far their cells are Panasonic and something prismatic off the shelf from other suppliers for China. They are working on their own cell now, yet to be proven out (debuting in the car that is supposed to fly around with compressed air).

nickik 5y ago

No it isn't. Look at year over year. They have massive demand they can't deliver. Quarter over Quarter grid storage is very depended on when project finish. > Battery storage is a competitive, commodity business. No isn't. There is really not that much Li-Ion grid storage being deployed right now and not by that many companies. That market is growing fast. > Not sure how huge it will be. The amount of needed grid storage is gigantic. Edit: Elon just said on the call that they are massively limited on production. Partly because of the chip issue, same chips are used in the cars and the cars have higher margin. But cell supply is also limited. So the demand is growing but they can't increase production as fast.

marvin 5y ago
Assuming that the world will eventually transition to 100% renewable energy, it's not unreasonable to estimate the eventual total market size to be higher than the world's nightly power consumption.

epistasis 5y ago

I agree that storage will be a commodity business, but so is oil and that seems to be fairly profitable. Battery construction is incredibly intricate and has a huuuuge amount of process tech. There's already a huge moat around it because of the level of knowledge needed and a severe lack of talent. That moat will only grow as more and more in house tech is developed for production and for chemistries. There's a solid chance that all the players of one of our biggest new economic sectors this century are already producing.

cma 5y ago
What's the moat? So far their cells are Panasonic and something prismatic off the shelf from other suppliers for China. They are working on their own cell now, yet to be proven out (debuting in the car that is supposed to fly around with compressed air).