6 ms·

This may be an overly naive take on my behalf, but if it was 25% on a Model 3 specifically that means each one costs them $30K~ to build at a $40K price (and fr

This may be an overly naive take on my behalf, but if it was 25% on a Model 3 specifically that means each one costs them $30K~ to build at a $40K price (and frankly 25% is likely too optimistic for their lowest margin vehicle). That makes me think we're many, many years away from seeing $25K~ EVs. You can cut some things off of the Model 3, but battery reduction in particular is a headache since you risk damaging your reputation/EV's reputations if you make it too weak (particularly with normal degradation). I know this is proprietary/secret, but I'd love to see a pie chart of where each dollar on a Model 3 goes. In particular how much is pure battery/drive system, and basically the whole rest of the car.

toomuchtodo 5y ago
If the total cost of ownership is lower with an EV, you can drag the payments out longer with lower interest financing because the vehicle will last longer. The upfront cost is higher, but you hack around it with financial engineering. I don't mind an 84 month auto loan at <2% interest, as long as it's cheap to drive (EVs are half the cost per mile as combustion vehicles) and retains enough value to defend against negative equity as the loan balance and vehicle value decline roughly at the same rate. You might not see $25K new EVs, but you'll see used versions around that price with 100k+ miles on them that still drive like they're new (there are Model S and X vehicles with hundreds of thousands of miles on their drivetrain still going strong). TLDR We're financially engineering our way out of combustion based transportation.
- itsoktocry 5y ago
  Why do you assume they'll drive like new? It's wear and tear that makes a car feel old, and Tesla isn't known for high quality.
  - toomuchtodo 5y ago
    I have ridden in Teslas with hundreds of thousands of miles on them, and am able to compare between that and my own Teslas and their (lower) mileage.
- Someone1234 5y ago
  > If the total cost of ownership is lower with an EV, you can drag the payments out longer with lower interest financing because the vehicle will last longer. An EV is much less convenient than a conventional vehicle, it needs to have a lower CoO just to offset that. Once electric vehicles can charge in comparable times to gas for comparable miles, then we can talk, in the meantime you're gaining lower ownership cost for more hassle (and that's ok, but you cannot double-dip it). > I don't mind an 84 month auto loan at <2% interest That's available on gas vehicles too (and even better interest rates in some cases), largely offsetting whatever edge you're trying to argue. > You might not see $25K EVs, but you'll see used versions around that price with 100k+ miles on them that still drive like they're new Drive like? Yes. Range? Unlikely. Just look at the costs of a full battery module replacement, it would eat up over 50% of that $25K price. Plus the rate of technological advancement may hurt old EVs worse than gas vehicles, because one is advancing more rapidly than the other. I suspect a lot of people care that electric sedans costs almost $15K more than hybrid sedans, and I suspect you'll see sales explode if a "Model 2" that cost $25K~ were ever produced (with a few disclaimers on range, seat capacity, etc).
  - mason55 5y ago
    > An EV is much less convenient than a conventional vehicle Probably not true for a lot of people. I’d hit range limits maybe one or two days a year. In exchange I can have my car “full” all the time. It cuts out a lot of trips to the gas station, which aren’t always convenient.
  - cptskippy 5y ago
    > An EV is much less convenient than a conventional vehicle... Once electric vehicles can charge in comparable times to gas for comparable miles, then we can talk... I wish this argument would just die. It's so ignorant and assine. The convenience is different, not less. I haven't had to stop at a gas station to fuel up either of my cars since Nov 2018. I haven't used a charger outside of my home since last August to charge my Nissan Leaf, and in 2020 I only used chargers twice. That's 2 times since Nov of 2019 on a vehicle with an 80 mile range. Our Model 3 was driven across country and kept time with a box truck moving all of our belongings. I plug my cars in when I need a charge at home. I don't have to run out for gas the night before a trip or on the way. I don't have to make planned or unplanned stops at gas stations. I don't have to go to gas stations at all. But EVs are less convenient because you can imagine scenarios in your head.
- Wheaties466 5y ago
  Completely agreed on all points. I just bought a model 3 a month ago or so. I don't drive often but I have been looking to drive my car because I now love driving the thing. back to my point. I have been using this app optiwatt which, very conservatively, tracks my charging efficiency and how much it costs me to charge. In the first month i've saved almost $80 in what it would cost a gasoline car. This is coming from someone who doesn't drive very much. I can definitely see this number adding up for someone who has a 45min-1h commute.
bryanlarsen 5y ago
When we can have $40K F-150 Lightning's and Cybertrucks, with their massive batteries, I think $25K electric econo-boxes will also be possible. The $70K F-150 Lightnings and Cybertrucks are coming next year, the $40K ones will take a little longer.
nickik 5y ago
What you are missing is that a $25K would be quite a bit smaller then the Model 3, just as the Model 3 is quite a bit smaller then the Model S. The advantage there will come from a number of places over the current Model 3. Structural battery will make the car lighter, cheaper and of course efficient. The perspective $25K car will also likely use a cheaper battery chemistry produced by Tesla themselves and a much smaller overall pack. The range should be the same or slightly only slightly less. Put those things together, smaller, lighter, lower production cost and slightly lower margin (15%) makes this very much possible. Of course this car would have upgrades to, in the car industry the base model has much worse margin then the upgrade models. > I know this is proprietary/secret, but I'd love to see a pie chart of where each dollar on a Model 3 goes. In particular how much is pure battery/drive system, and basically the whole rest of the car. You can go to Munro & Associates and they will sell you a report with a detailed break down of the cost for literally every screw and how much it cost to screw it in. You can even get reports on the difference between China/US and so on. They also have a lot of video very you can learn about this. They don't show all the numbers of course but they do show a lot of interesting numbers. See: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCj--iMtToRO_cGG_fpmP5XQ https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCj--iMtToRO_cGG_fpmP5XQ (Currently they are working on Ford Mach-E) If you are more interested in EV in general, not just Model 3, they have actually made their report of the BMW i3 almost free. You can literally get a report that used to be $50k for $10. See here: https://munrolive.com/support-%2F-store/ols/products/bmw-i3-reports https://munrolive.com/support-%2F-store/ols/products/bmw-i3-... You can go and build your own BMW i3.
- ryathal 5y ago
  Structural battery sounds like Pinto 2.0.
yuppie_scum 5y ago
If you take incentives into account, you can get a Chevy Bolt under 25k out the door today.
mempko 5y ago
Cheap EVs are already here, made in China. Here is a $1k EV, that's right, $1k. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1GG1RC7GV0Y https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1GG1RC7GV0Y

toomuchtodo 5y ago

If the total cost of ownership is lower with an EV, you can drag the payments out longer with lower interest financing because the vehicle will last longer. The upfront cost is higher, but you hack around it with financial engineering. I don't mind an 84 month auto loan at <2% interest, as long as it's cheap to drive (EVs are half the cost per mile as combustion vehicles) and retains enough value to defend against negative equity as the loan balance and vehicle value decline roughly at the same rate. You might not see $25K new EVs, but you'll see used versions around that price with 100k+ miles on them that still drive like they're new (there are Model S and X vehicles with hundreds of thousands of miles on their drivetrain still going strong). TLDR We're financially engineering our way out of combustion based transportation.

itsoktocry 5y ago
Why do you assume they'll drive like new? It's wear and tear that makes a car feel old, and Tesla isn't known for high quality.
- toomuchtodo 5y ago
  I have ridden in Teslas with hundreds of thousands of miles on them, and am able to compare between that and my own Teslas and their (lower) mileage.
Someone1234 5y ago
> If the total cost of ownership is lower with an EV, you can drag the payments out longer with lower interest financing because the vehicle will last longer. An EV is much less convenient than a conventional vehicle, it needs to have a lower CoO just to offset that. Once electric vehicles can charge in comparable times to gas for comparable miles, then we can talk, in the meantime you're gaining lower ownership cost for more hassle (and that's ok, but you cannot double-dip it). > I don't mind an 84 month auto loan at <2% interest That's available on gas vehicles too (and even better interest rates in some cases), largely offsetting whatever edge you're trying to argue. > You might not see $25K EVs, but you'll see used versions around that price with 100k+ miles on them that still drive like they're new Drive like? Yes. Range? Unlikely. Just look at the costs of a full battery module replacement, it would eat up over 50% of that $25K price. Plus the rate of technological advancement may hurt old EVs worse than gas vehicles, because one is advancing more rapidly than the other. I suspect a lot of people care that electric sedans costs almost $15K more than hybrid sedans, and I suspect you'll see sales explode if a "Model 2" that cost $25K~ were ever produced (with a few disclaimers on range, seat capacity, etc).
- mason55 5y ago
  > An EV is much less convenient than a conventional vehicle Probably not true for a lot of people. I’d hit range limits maybe one or two days a year. In exchange I can have my car “full” all the time. It cuts out a lot of trips to the gas station, which aren’t always convenient.
- cptskippy 5y ago
  > An EV is much less convenient than a conventional vehicle... Once electric vehicles can charge in comparable times to gas for comparable miles, then we can talk... I wish this argument would just die. It's so ignorant and assine. The convenience is different, not less. I haven't had to stop at a gas station to fuel up either of my cars since Nov 2018. I haven't used a charger outside of my home since last August to charge my Nissan Leaf, and in 2020 I only used chargers twice. That's 2 times since Nov of 2019 on a vehicle with an 80 mile range. Our Model 3 was driven across country and kept time with a box truck moving all of our belongings. I plug my cars in when I need a charge at home. I don't have to run out for gas the night before a trip or on the way. I don't have to make planned or unplanned stops at gas stations. I don't have to go to gas stations at all. But EVs are less convenient because you can imagine scenarios in your head.
Wheaties466 5y ago
Completely agreed on all points. I just bought a model 3 a month ago or so. I don't drive often but I have been looking to drive my car because I now love driving the thing. back to my point. I have been using this app optiwatt which, very conservatively, tracks my charging efficiency and how much it costs me to charge. In the first month i've saved almost $80 in what it would cost a gasoline car. This is coming from someone who doesn't drive very much. I can definitely see this number adding up for someone who has a 45min-1h commute.

bryanlarsen 5y ago

When we can have $40K F-150 Lightning's and Cybertrucks, with their massive batteries, I think $25K electric econo-boxes will also be possible. The $70K F-150 Lightnings and Cybertrucks are coming next year, the $40K ones will take a little longer.

nickik 5y ago

What you are missing is that a $25K would be quite a bit smaller then the Model 3, just as the Model 3 is quite a bit smaller then the Model S. The advantage there will come from a number of places over the current Model 3. Structural battery will make the car lighter, cheaper and of course efficient. The perspective $25K car will also likely use a cheaper battery chemistry produced by Tesla themselves and a much smaller overall pack. The range should be the same or slightly only slightly less. Put those things together, smaller, lighter, lower production cost and slightly lower margin (15%) makes this very much possible. Of course this car would have upgrades to, in the car industry the base model has much worse margin then the upgrade models. > I know this is proprietary/secret, but I'd love to see a pie chart of where each dollar on a Model 3 goes. In particular how much is pure battery/drive system, and basically the whole rest of the car. You can go to Munro & Associates and they will sell you a report with a detailed break down of the cost for literally every screw and how much it cost to screw it in. You can even get reports on the difference between China/US and so on. They also have a lot of video very you can learn about this. They don't show all the numbers of course but they do show a lot of interesting numbers. See: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCj--iMtToRO_cGG_fpmP5XQ https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCj--iMtToRO_cGG_fpmP5XQ (Currently they are working on Ford Mach-E) If you are more interested in EV in general, not just Model 3, they have actually made their report of the BMW i3 almost free. You can literally get a report that used to be $50k for $10. See here: https://munrolive.com/support-%2F-store/ols/products/bmw-i3-reports https://munrolive.com/support-%2F-store/ols/products/bmw-i3-... You can go and build your own BMW i3.

ryathal 5y ago
Structural battery sounds like Pinto 2.0.

yuppie_scum 5y ago

If you take incentives into account, you can get a Chevy Bolt under 25k out the door today.

mempko 5y ago

Cheap EVs are already here, made in China. Here is a $1k EV, that's right, $1k. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1GG1RC7GV0Y https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1GG1RC7GV0Y