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I've always been bullish tesla and a lot of the arguments against them ignore the underlying ideas (will electric vehicles, power storage and solar be major are

I've always been bullish tesla and a lot of the arguments against them ignore the underlying ideas (will electric vehicles, power storage and solar be major areas?). I think the power storage piece is also going to just be huge and would love if they let their cars feed into a transfer switch etc. The stock price does seem very high though even if you DO buy into their story (which I do) - but a lot of the stock market feels high - just a lot of money sloshing around these days.

cptskippy 5y ago
> would love if they let their cars feed into a transfer switch etc I have to imagine that's a non trivial task that would require Permission To Operate from your power company. When you have solar/batteries installed, you have to be inspected and receive PTO from your energy provider. They only just opened up their Beta to allow your Powerwall to backfeed power to the grid on demand. If and when they allow vehicles to supply power to the grid, it is going to require the vehicle owner to have their setup inspected and PTO granted. I have a feeling this will dissuade people who don't already have solar/batteries from participating.
- slownews45 5y ago
  I'm looking more for a replacement for the generator, you can usually get a generator + transfer switch without too much difficulty because you are not backfeeding grid, but you would be backfeeding your house. The capacity in these vehicles is actually relatively good relative to household loads. Their powerwall stuff with grid support / virtual power plant obviously has much bigger grid impacts / risks (ie, how do workers lock out feed to grid when working on lines etc).
  - cptskippy 5y ago
    > (ie, how do workers lock out feed to grid when working on lines etc) Part of PTO is an inspection and one of the requirements to pass is that there's an ED on the exterior of your home so the power company can come by and disconnect you from the grid. It's kind of the reverse of registering life support systems with the power company so they know not to shut off your power.
  - wffurr 5y ago
    Doesn't the new electric Ford truck do this?
    - cptskippy 5y ago
      It can output AC, I believe the new Hyundai can as well. This isn't the same as backfeeding to the grid. If you have a cut over in your home you could run your house off the car power but without PTO you can't backfeed the grid. That requires inspection of your installation and external ED installed so your energy provider can disconnect your home from the grid when doing service.
      - wffurr 5y ago
        From the post I'm replying to: "not backfeeding grid, but you would be backfeeding your house."
        cptskippy 5y ago
        Ah, sorry I missed that. Then to answer your question more succinctly "yes".
itsoktocry 5y ago
Storage is flat to modestly in decline. Battery storage is a competitive, commodity business. Not sure how huge it will be.
- nickik 5y ago
  No it isn't. Look at year over year. They have massive demand they can't deliver. Quarter over Quarter grid storage is very depended on when project finish. > Battery storage is a competitive, commodity business. No isn't. There is really not that much Li-Ion grid storage being deployed right now and not by that many companies. That market is growing fast. > Not sure how huge it will be. The amount of needed grid storage is gigantic. Edit: Elon just said on the call that they are massively limited on production. Partly because of the chip issue, same chips are used in the cars and the cars have higher margin. But cell supply is also limited. So the demand is growing but they can't increase production as fast.
  - marvin 5y ago
    Assuming that the world will eventually transition to 100% renewable energy, it's not unreasonable to estimate the eventual total market size to be higher than the world's nightly power consumption.
- epistasis 5y ago
  I agree that storage will be a commodity business, but so is oil and that seems to be fairly profitable. Battery construction is incredibly intricate and has a huuuuge amount of process tech. There's already a huge moat around it because of the level of knowledge needed and a severe lack of talent. That moat will only grow as more and more in house tech is developed for production and for chemistries. There's a solid chance that all the players of one of our biggest new economic sectors this century are already producing.
  - cma 5y ago
    What's the moat? So far their cells are Panasonic and something prismatic off the shelf from other suppliers for China. They are working on their own cell now, yet to be proven out (debuting in the car that is supposed to fly around with compressed air).

cptskippy 5y ago

> would love if they let their cars feed into a transfer switch etc I have to imagine that's a non trivial task that would require Permission To Operate from your power company. When you have solar/batteries installed, you have to be inspected and receive PTO from your energy provider. They only just opened up their Beta to allow your Powerwall to backfeed power to the grid on demand. If and when they allow vehicles to supply power to the grid, it is going to require the vehicle owner to have their setup inspected and PTO granted. I have a feeling this will dissuade people who don't already have solar/batteries from participating.

slownews45 5y ago
I'm looking more for a replacement for the generator, you can usually get a generator + transfer switch without too much difficulty because you are not backfeeding grid, but you would be backfeeding your house. The capacity in these vehicles is actually relatively good relative to household loads. Their powerwall stuff with grid support / virtual power plant obviously has much bigger grid impacts / risks (ie, how do workers lock out feed to grid when working on lines etc).
- cptskippy 5y ago
  > (ie, how do workers lock out feed to grid when working on lines etc) Part of PTO is an inspection and one of the requirements to pass is that there's an ED on the exterior of your home so the power company can come by and disconnect you from the grid. It's kind of the reverse of registering life support systems with the power company so they know not to shut off your power.
- wffurr 5y ago
  Doesn't the new electric Ford truck do this?
  - cptskippy 5y ago
    It can output AC, I believe the new Hyundai can as well. This isn't the same as backfeeding to the grid. If you have a cut over in your home you could run your house off the car power but without PTO you can't backfeed the grid. That requires inspection of your installation and external ED installed so your energy provider can disconnect your home from the grid when doing service.
    - wffurr 5y ago
      From the post I'm replying to: "not backfeeding grid, but you would be backfeeding your house."
      - cptskippy 5y ago
        Ah, sorry I missed that. Then to answer your question more succinctly "yes".

itsoktocry 5y ago

Storage is flat to modestly in decline. Battery storage is a competitive, commodity business. Not sure how huge it will be.

nickik 5y ago
No it isn't. Look at year over year. They have massive demand they can't deliver. Quarter over Quarter grid storage is very depended on when project finish. > Battery storage is a competitive, commodity business. No isn't. There is really not that much Li-Ion grid storage being deployed right now and not by that many companies. That market is growing fast. > Not sure how huge it will be. The amount of needed grid storage is gigantic. Edit: Elon just said on the call that they are massively limited on production. Partly because of the chip issue, same chips are used in the cars and the cars have higher margin. But cell supply is also limited. So the demand is growing but they can't increase production as fast.
- marvin 5y ago
  Assuming that the world will eventually transition to 100% renewable energy, it's not unreasonable to estimate the eventual total market size to be higher than the world's nightly power consumption.
epistasis 5y ago
I agree that storage will be a commodity business, but so is oil and that seems to be fairly profitable. Battery construction is incredibly intricate and has a huuuuge amount of process tech. There's already a huge moat around it because of the level of knowledge needed and a severe lack of talent. That moat will only grow as more and more in house tech is developed for production and for chemistries. There's a solid chance that all the players of one of our biggest new economic sectors this century are already producing.
- cma 5y ago
  What's the moat? So far their cells are Panasonic and something prismatic off the shelf from other suppliers for China. They are working on their own cell now, yet to be proven out (debuting in the car that is supposed to fly around with compressed air).