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Way to go to TSLA. I was a naysayer through 2020 and I lost a lot of money personally betting against this company ("but what about regulatory credits", ugh);

Way to go to TSLA. I was a naysayer through 2020 and I lost a lot of money personally betting against this company ("but what about regulatory credits", ugh); however, with over one billion in net income in a single quarter and growing revenues and declining reg. credits , I will admit that I couldn't have been more wrong.

nazka 5y ago
But with the market cap it’s at now it is really hard to phantom. I mean it’s the most valued car manufacturer in the world and beat Toyota by so much..! Even by being a bullish for a long long time. It’s hard to see a reasonable spot to enter now.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
  Read this: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/tesla-valuation-based-on-5-year-outlook.234307/ https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/tesla-valuation-base...
  - nazka 5y ago
    Thanks! Will do.
    - rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
      NB: this excludes robotaxi, so any revenues from an autonomous fleet would be cherry on top (it could double the profit, still).
- TheParkShark 5y ago
  I think Toyota backed the wrong horse. https://www.theverge.com/2021/7/26/22594235/toyota-lobbying-dc-ev-congress-biden-donation https://www.theverge.com/2021/7/26/22594235/toyota-lobbying-...
11thEarlOfMar 5y ago
I’ve noticed the number of Tesla cars on the road in SV is around 4%, possibly more. It surprising how quickly they’ve become commonplace, even on their home turf.
- spullara 5y ago
  Our entire neighborhood seems to have at least 1, sometimes 2 each in Cupertino/Los Altos.
  - bilal4hmed 5y ago
    Im in the suburbs of Houston, TX and I easily see that here too if not more.
- paxys 5y ago
  It is way more than 4% in SV.
slownews45 5y ago
I've always been bullish tesla and a lot of the arguments against them ignore the underlying ideas (will electric vehicles, power storage and solar be major areas?). I think the power storage piece is also going to just be huge and would love if they let their cars feed into a transfer switch etc. The stock price does seem very high though even if you DO buy into their story (which I do) - but a lot of the stock market feels high - just a lot of money sloshing around these days.
- cptskippy 5y ago
  > would love if they let their cars feed into a transfer switch etc I have to imagine that's a non trivial task that would require Permission To Operate from your power company. When you have solar/batteries installed, you have to be inspected and receive PTO from your energy provider. They only just opened up their Beta to allow your Powerwall to backfeed power to the grid on demand. If and when they allow vehicles to supply power to the grid, it is going to require the vehicle owner to have their setup inspected and PTO granted. I have a feeling this will dissuade people who don't already have solar/batteries from participating.
  - slownews45 5y ago
    I'm looking more for a replacement for the generator, you can usually get a generator + transfer switch without too much difficulty because you are not backfeeding grid, but you would be backfeeding your house. The capacity in these vehicles is actually relatively good relative to household loads. Their powerwall stuff with grid support / virtual power plant obviously has much bigger grid impacts / risks (ie, how do workers lock out feed to grid when working on lines etc).
    - cptskippy 5y ago
      > (ie, how do workers lock out feed to grid when working on lines etc) Part of PTO is an inspection and one of the requirements to pass is that there's an ED on the exterior of your home so the power company can come by and disconnect you from the grid. It's kind of the reverse of registering life support systems with the power company so they know not to shut off your power.
bob33212 5y ago
Thanks for being honest, far too many people cannot admit they are wrong and double down and call Tesla a fraud only making them look worse in the future. I've certainly been wrong about companies before. I shorted AAPL for a week in 2002.
- dylan604 5y ago
  I could have seen people doing that during the time before Jobs' return. By 2002, OS X had been released, and the wave of iMacs and what not had been around. What happened during that week in 2002 that I'm not remembering?
  - bob33212 5y ago
    I was in college and it seemed that the first IPOD was overpriced and just a "cool" thing to buy. There were other MP3 players that were cheaper coming on the market. But I quickly realized the risk is too high if AAPL continues to be popular even if their hardware is overpriced.
    - pstuart 5y ago
      The famous ipod review by CmdrTaco (creator of Slashdot): > No wireless. Less space than a nomad. Lame.
      - dylan604 5y ago
        True. True. Opinion. So a fairly accurate review, and the opinion is totally fair. Maybe a bit short sighted now with hindsight and what not, but at least he compared a nomad instead of a zune. That would have caused the review to not age well.
        marvin 5y ago
        I don't think most people would argue that his review aged well, in spite of getting the direction of gravity right.
dreamcompiler 5y ago
The Models 3 and Y are astonishingly good cars. I have an Audi S4 and a Model Y. The Audi now sits in the garage most of the time. Driving it feels like a giant step backwards compared to the Model Y. And the superior driving experience of the Model Y is in addition to the obvious benefit that I can refuel the car in my garage.
jraby3 5y ago
I was a huge Better Place fan and thought Tesla would definitely lose that battle. I also thought their initial government investment was a waste of taxpayer money. Happy to be wrong and see at least one winner.
- jfengel 5y ago
  I really liked the idea of Better Place. But I saw them on the cover of Wired, and knew that it wouldn't succeed. My rule of thumb is that if you're on the cover of Wired, either you've already succeeded, or you never will. They pick people who are already famous, or who want to be famous -- rather than people with the idea and ability to succeed. If you're on the cover and haven't already proven it, you're almost certainly better at selling yourself than your product. I didn't know what would be wrong with the product, but I knew there would be something before I even opened the magazine.

nazka 5y ago

But with the market cap it’s at now it is really hard to phantom. I mean it’s the most valued car manufacturer in the world and beat Toyota by so much..! Even by being a bullish for a long long time. It’s hard to see a reasonable spot to enter now.

rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
Read this: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/tesla-valuation-based-on-5-year-outlook.234307/ https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/tesla-valuation-base...
- nazka 5y ago
  Thanks! Will do.
  - rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
    NB: this excludes robotaxi, so any revenues from an autonomous fleet would be cherry on top (it could double the profit, still).
TheParkShark 5y ago
I think Toyota backed the wrong horse. https://www.theverge.com/2021/7/26/22594235/toyota-lobbying-dc-ev-congress-biden-donation https://www.theverge.com/2021/7/26/22594235/toyota-lobbying-...

11thEarlOfMar 5y ago

I’ve noticed the number of Tesla cars on the road in SV is around 4%, possibly more. It surprising how quickly they’ve become commonplace, even on their home turf.

spullara 5y ago
Our entire neighborhood seems to have at least 1, sometimes 2 each in Cupertino/Los Altos.
- bilal4hmed 5y ago
  Im in the suburbs of Houston, TX and I easily see that here too if not more.
paxys 5y ago
It is way more than 4% in SV.

slownews45 5y ago

I've always been bullish tesla and a lot of the arguments against them ignore the underlying ideas (will electric vehicles, power storage and solar be major areas?). I think the power storage piece is also going to just be huge and would love if they let their cars feed into a transfer switch etc. The stock price does seem very high though even if you DO buy into their story (which I do) - but a lot of the stock market feels high - just a lot of money sloshing around these days.

cptskippy 5y ago
> would love if they let their cars feed into a transfer switch etc I have to imagine that's a non trivial task that would require Permission To Operate from your power company. When you have solar/batteries installed, you have to be inspected and receive PTO from your energy provider. They only just opened up their Beta to allow your Powerwall to backfeed power to the grid on demand. If and when they allow vehicles to supply power to the grid, it is going to require the vehicle owner to have their setup inspected and PTO granted. I have a feeling this will dissuade people who don't already have solar/batteries from participating.
- slownews45 5y ago
  I'm looking more for a replacement for the generator, you can usually get a generator + transfer switch without too much difficulty because you are not backfeeding grid, but you would be backfeeding your house. The capacity in these vehicles is actually relatively good relative to household loads. Their powerwall stuff with grid support / virtual power plant obviously has much bigger grid impacts / risks (ie, how do workers lock out feed to grid when working on lines etc).
  - cptskippy 5y ago
    > (ie, how do workers lock out feed to grid when working on lines etc) Part of PTO is an inspection and one of the requirements to pass is that there's an ED on the exterior of your home so the power company can come by and disconnect you from the grid. It's kind of the reverse of registering life support systems with the power company so they know not to shut off your power.

bob33212 5y ago

Thanks for being honest, far too many people cannot admit they are wrong and double down and call Tesla a fraud only making them look worse in the future. I've certainly been wrong about companies before. I shorted AAPL for a week in 2002.

dylan604 5y ago
I could have seen people doing that during the time before Jobs' return. By 2002, OS X had been released, and the wave of iMacs and what not had been around. What happened during that week in 2002 that I'm not remembering?
- bob33212 5y ago
  I was in college and it seemed that the first IPOD was overpriced and just a "cool" thing to buy. There were other MP3 players that were cheaper coming on the market. But I quickly realized the risk is too high if AAPL continues to be popular even if their hardware is overpriced.
  - pstuart 5y ago
    The famous ipod review by CmdrTaco (creator of Slashdot): > No wireless. Less space than a nomad. Lame.
    - dylan604 5y ago
      True. True. Opinion. So a fairly accurate review, and the opinion is totally fair. Maybe a bit short sighted now with hindsight and what not, but at least he compared a nomad instead of a zune. That would have caused the review to not age well.
      - marvin 5y ago
        I don't think most people would argue that his review aged well, in spite of getting the direction of gravity right.

dreamcompiler 5y ago

The Models 3 and Y are astonishingly good cars. I have an Audi S4 and a Model Y. The Audi now sits in the garage most of the time. Driving it feels like a giant step backwards compared to the Model Y. And the superior driving experience of the Model Y is in addition to the obvious benefit that I can refuel the car in my garage.

jraby3 5y ago

I was a huge Better Place fan and thought Tesla would definitely lose that battle. I also thought their initial government investment was a waste of taxpayer money. Happy to be wrong and see at least one winner.

jfengel 5y ago
I really liked the idea of Better Place. But I saw them on the cover of Wired, and knew that it wouldn't succeed. My rule of thumb is that if you're on the cover of Wired, either you've already succeeded, or you never will. They pick people who are already famous, or who want to be famous -- rather than people with the idea and ability to succeed. If you're on the cover and haven't already proven it, you're almost certainly better at selling yourself than your product. I didn't know what would be wrong with the product, but I knew there would be something before I even opened the magazine.