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This is one of those things that I just can't reconcile with my own experience. Studies say that crime is actually down but I'm witnessing more and more general

This is one of those things that I just can't reconcile with my own experience. Studies say that crime is actually down but I'm witnessing more and more general lawlessness. A few weeks ago I saw someone take a case of beer out of a supermarket without paying. They caught him on camera and no one tried to stop him. The manager told me it was pointless to call the police. Public urination is way more common than it used to be and I think NYC decriminalized it a while ago. So if a bunch of previously criminal acts are no longer being reported, can we truly have confidence that crime has actually gone down? This reminds me of all those news articles confidently declaring inflation wasn't a threat, and that, no, we are actually experiencing some deflation. But when I go to the grocery store I end up paying more for things like milk and meat. A strip steak went from about $9.99 a pound to $14.99 a pound.

danShumway 5y ago
Crime is definitely up, but even if we assume it's under-reported or the numbers are being fudged, it's still nowhere near the level of the 90s. It's up from a historic low. I think a lot of people either aren't really aware of or were sheltered growing up from how bad crime used to be. People's real-world experience is based on their recent memory, not on 90's levels of violence. There were a little less than 2,000 shootings in New York City in 2020. That's very bad, given that for a few years the city had managed to dip under 1,000 shootings. An extremely noticeable spike. But as a point of comparison, in 1991 there were over 5,000 shootings in NYC. And those numbers aren't taking into account three decades of population growth. Even when you look at crime overall and not just violent crimes, we were coming off of a ~5% national crime rate in 1991. From what I can see, GP is correct that we are mostly looking at a return to 2012-level crime stats, and in some areas maybe a return to 2000-2010 levels. I'm convinced that people just can't remember any earlier than that. The 90s were really bad, if ~55% of Americans think we're at those levels already, then ~55% of Americans are just wrong. They don't have an accurate grasp of what crime used to look like. When you look at >2015 rates, then you do see crime going up. That's a real thing, and it's worth paying attention to. But that doesn't really change anything about the overall trajectory of crime over the past decade. It especially doesn't change anything about the overall trajectory of crime over the past >1 decade. > But when I go to the grocery store I end up paying more for things like milk and meat. There's a much simpler explanation here, which is that food categories like milk and meat are completely excluded from many inflation calculations, specifically because their prices are highly volatile. An increase in the price of food won't be directly reflected in any reported inflation numbers, at least as far as I know. Like many high-level economy measures, inflation is not always a useful way to talk about how costs are changing and what regular people are experiencing. It's purposefully disconnected from many "on-the-ground" prices of goods that are important to consumers.

danShumway 5y ago

Crime is definitely up, but even if we assume it's under-reported or the numbers are being fudged, it's still nowhere near the level of the 90s. It's up from a historic low. I think a lot of people either aren't really aware of or were sheltered growing up from how bad crime used to be. People's real-world experience is based on their recent memory, not on 90's levels of violence. There were a little less than 2,000 shootings in New York City in 2020. That's very bad, given that for a few years the city had managed to dip under 1,000 shootings. An extremely noticeable spike. But as a point of comparison, in 1991 there were over 5,000 shootings in NYC. And those numbers aren't taking into account three decades of population growth. Even when you look at crime overall and not just violent crimes, we were coming off of a ~5% national crime rate in 1991. From what I can see, GP is correct that we are mostly looking at a return to 2012-level crime stats, and in some areas maybe a return to 2000-2010 levels. I'm convinced that people just can't remember any earlier than that. The 90s were really bad, if ~55% of Americans think we're at those levels already, then ~55% of Americans are just wrong. They don't have an accurate grasp of what crime used to look like. When you look at >2015 rates, then you do see crime going up. That's a real thing, and it's worth paying attention to. But that doesn't really change anything about the overall trajectory of crime over the past decade. It especially doesn't change anything about the overall trajectory of crime over the past >1 decade. > But when I go to the grocery store I end up paying more for things like milk and meat. There's a much simpler explanation here, which is that food categories like milk and meat are completely excluded from many inflation calculations, specifically because their prices are highly volatile. An increase in the price of food won't be directly reflected in any reported inflation numbers, at least as far as I know. Like many high-level economy measures, inflation is not always a useful way to talk about how costs are changing and what regular people are experiencing. It's purposefully disconnected from many "on-the-ground" prices of goods that are important to consumers.