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> There are people who live in very remote places where electric is not possible, and in some cases extremely dangerous. Not sure where that comes from. Modern

by danhor 5y ago

> There are people who live in very remote places where electric is not possible, and in some cases extremely dangerous. Not sure where that comes from. Modern EVs have > 400km of real range, which is already more than what you'd regularly want to drive in a day. Charging is fast enough for longer journeys and if you don't drive the full range every day, regular at-home charging should suffice. (The obvious factor is the price, which hopefully shouldn't be an issue by then, since EVs are currently coming down in price fast) The more interesting thing is that for people in the big city, EVs are maybe also not so great. You aren't gonna take a 15 min break while quickly charging on a few minute shopping trip and charging for street parking doesn't look like it's coming soon. Additionally, (at least here in germany) charging stations are way more expensive than at-home charging. > If the people who live in the big city make it economically infeasible to have anything that's not electric, I known this doesn't help, but regarding climate change: It's economically infeasible to have anything non electric already. The cost is simply deferred to the future. The additional question is if simply switching to EVs is enough, but there's not a lot of certainty in either direction.

freedomben 5y ago
When I lived in Alaska, there were villages that were hundreds of miles apart. Enough so that you had to bring extra gas with you in addition to your full tank. Until EVs can handle that range while keeping you warm at the same time, they're not going to work. For those people. And running out of charge could be deadly in -50 deg where there's little chance of people coming by to rescue you. Unless we want to have the government build of recharge stations in the middle of nowhere, those people will be entirely left behind. Perhaps in 5 years we'll be there. I hope so! But pretending those people don't exist won't make them disappear (I'm not suggesting that is what you are doing for the record, I'm speaking generally).
- danhor 5y ago
  Oh wow, thats quite a bit more remote than I imagined and goes far beyond the typical urban/rural spectrum, there's probably nothing that extreme in the EU. Since this is a very niche issue, I fear that will be a hard problem to solve. EVs will kill regular gasoline vehicles and AFAICT hydrogen cars won't work out at all (the latter regardless of any co2 related regulations, mostly due to low efficiency and high, not easily optimizable, costs) over the medium term. That area of concern will probably simply get "googled" (ignored since too niche) by the car manufacturers, so I'm not quite sure what will happen, but I can imagine a couple outcomes: 1. Tough luck, simply not workable with equipment affordable by "regular people". The "these people disappear [to somewhere else]" solution, locally unpopular but probably not significant enough to get a lot of attention from the federal government 2. Retaining old gasoline vehicles, with high taxes due to carbon emissions and high costs, due to gas stations and repair expertise disappearing. Would probably work for a couple decades, since I imagine that gasoline will still get produced for quite some time for niche legacy stuff with the issue being "how do you get it?", but very expensive and not sustainable due to vehicles dying 3. Recharge stations in the middle of nowhere: probably not in sufficient quantities, niche interest & very expensive with lots of them needed due to the large distances & high power demand when in use. Maybe something PV & battery based if traffic is low enough? Would still mean that they need a satellite connection and you'd probably need to "reserve" the charge beforehand, so no one gets stranded at one. Also probably not easy with very low temperatures. 4. Something conceptually to a modern power bank but hydrogen powered? Maybe a roof rack with some hydrogen & electrically connected to the charging socket. Would probably be cheaper than a special car & more feasible in lower quantities. I feel like retaining production for this is not gonna work out and there won't be a single solution, but a combination of them. In the worst case, it might be a combination of 1. & 2., with batteries having improved enough to retain a charge > 1000km while heating when 2. comes to an end.
  - freedomben 5y ago
    Very interesting analysis, thanks! I fully agree with your hypotheses about the future. I think that's the most likely outcome as well, barring some technological upset that changes the game somehow (unlikely, but possible). The hydrogen on the roof-top to charge a battery or power a motor is a fascinating idea. As you say, it won't be cheap but it does seem feasible/possible in a world where gas is rare and expensive. I do think many people will do what I did and move to a less rural area. There are a lot of native tribes up there who have been there as long as they've had history. It will no doubt be heart wrenching, but they'll have to move. A hundred years later perhaps our ancestors will be looking back at our time and apologizing for the cruelty of forcing them away from their ancestral homes, but it won't change anything now.

by danhor 5y ago

freedomben 5y ago

When I lived in Alaska, there were villages that were hundreds of miles apart. Enough so that you had to bring extra gas with you in addition to your full tank. Until EVs can handle that range while keeping you warm at the same time, they're not going to work. For those people. And running out of charge could be deadly in -50 deg where there's little chance of people coming by to rescue you. Unless we want to have the government build of recharge stations in the middle of nowhere, those people will be entirely left behind. Perhaps in 5 years we'll be there. I hope so! But pretending those people don't exist won't make them disappear (I'm not suggesting that is what you are doing for the record, I'm speaking generally).

danhor 5y ago
Oh wow, thats quite a bit more remote than I imagined and goes far beyond the typical urban/rural spectrum, there's probably nothing that extreme in the EU. Since this is a very niche issue, I fear that will be a hard problem to solve. EVs will kill regular gasoline vehicles and AFAICT hydrogen cars won't work out at all (the latter regardless of any co2 related regulations, mostly due to low efficiency and high, not easily optimizable, costs) over the medium term. That area of concern will probably simply get "googled" (ignored since too niche) by the car manufacturers, so I'm not quite sure what will happen, but I can imagine a couple outcomes: 1. Tough luck, simply not workable with equipment affordable by "regular people". The "these people disappear [to somewhere else]" solution, locally unpopular but probably not significant enough to get a lot of attention from the federal government 2. Retaining old gasoline vehicles, with high taxes due to carbon emissions and high costs, due to gas stations and repair expertise disappearing. Would probably work for a couple decades, since I imagine that gasoline will still get produced for quite some time for niche legacy stuff with the issue being "how do you get it?", but very expensive and not sustainable due to vehicles dying 3. Recharge stations in the middle of nowhere: probably not in sufficient quantities, niche interest & very expensive with lots of them needed due to the large distances & high power demand when in use. Maybe something PV & battery based if traffic is low enough? Would still mean that they need a satellite connection and you'd probably need to "reserve" the charge beforehand, so no one gets stranded at one. Also probably not easy with very low temperatures. 4. Something conceptually to a modern power bank but hydrogen powered? Maybe a roof rack with some hydrogen & electrically connected to the charging socket. Would probably be cheaper than a special car & more feasible in lower quantities. I feel like retaining production for this is not gonna work out and there won't be a single solution, but a combination of them. In the worst case, it might be a combination of 1. & 2., with batteries having improved enough to retain a charge > 1000km while heating when 2. comes to an end.
- freedomben 5y ago
  Very interesting analysis, thanks! I fully agree with your hypotheses about the future. I think that's the most likely outcome as well, barring some technological upset that changes the game somehow (unlikely, but possible). The hydrogen on the roof-top to charge a battery or power a motor is a fascinating idea. As you say, it won't be cheap but it does seem feasible/possible in a world where gas is rare and expensive. I do think many people will do what I did and move to a less rural area. There are a lot of native tribes up there who have been there as long as they've had history. It will no doubt be heart wrenching, but they'll have to move. A hundred years later perhaps our ancestors will be looking back at our time and apologizing for the cruelty of forcing them away from their ancestral homes, but it won't change anything now.