3 ms·

Japan could make it easier and more social acceptable for married women to work, but I know of no country that has been able to get its citizens to have more ch

Japan could make it easier and more social acceptable for married women to work, but I know of no country that has been able to get its citizens to have more children, once they have been reduced (on the contrary, it seems the world over women are having fewer children in just about every country, as the economy of that country becomes more prosperous). And of course any child not born, is also a child that does not grow up to have children.

thaumasiotes 5y ago
I hear the Czech Republic is back above replacement.
mschuster91 5y ago
> on the contrary, it seems the world over women are having fewer children in just about every country, as the economy of that country becomes more prosperous That observation seems to be generally correct: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility An aspect that is missing from the Wikipedia article however is being able to afford moving out or having children - a problem that is really prevalent in the poorer EU countries (see e.g. https://www.handelszeitung.ch/panorama/hotel-mama-warum-junge-sudeuropaer-nicht-ausziehen https://www.handelszeitung.ch/panorama/hotel-mama-warum-jung...). When lots of young people are unemployed/underemployed and rents astronomical, they have to stay at their parents' home for very long time (in Croatia, average is 32 years). Hard to procreate when you don't have your own space and privacy to have sex in, and even harder to raise children in such conditions. Many Western countries seem to have adopted immigration as a band-aid fix against employment vacancy (Germany recruits its healthcare staff from countries as far away as the Philippines ffs), but exploiting migrants isn't sustainable in the long term - the "brain drain" kills the origin countries slowly (good luck finding a nurse on the Balkans). The real fix would be to improve on the conditions that parents need to have children: build affordable housing, (US specific) increase employment security by killing off "at will employment", raise minimum wages to a level where a single worker can feed a family on their wage, and provide assistance to parents.
- chillacy 5y ago
  > The real fix would be to improve on the conditions that parents need to have children I hear this a lot, but have difficulty squaring that with observational evidence: France for instance great employment security but is hovering at similar fertility with the US and UK (1.88 births/woman vs 1.73 US and 1.68 UK). The nordic countries are around the same (1.76 Sweden, 1.41 Finland). Singapore has gone through great lengths to try to raise fertility, having affordable housing and various social programs and government cheerleading, and it's at 1.14. Maybe each of these cases have other factors, and maybe observational evidence is not right way to look at this. Is there other evidence of this path leading to more fertility?
- tomjen3 5y ago
  A Japaneses salaryman has about the highest job security ever. Japan has not produced above 2 children per woman since the early 1970's[0]. I don't disagree with you that we need rent and housing to come down, but people who live in section 8 housing in the US are not known for having few children and if you raise the minimum wage too much, you are going to increase the number of people who are unemployed. [0]: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=JP https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?location...

thaumasiotes 5y ago

I hear the Czech Republic is back above replacement.

mschuster91 5y ago

> on the contrary, it seems the world over women are having fewer children in just about every country, as the economy of that country becomes more prosperous That observation seems to be generally correct: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility An aspect that is missing from the Wikipedia article however is being able to afford moving out or having children - a problem that is really prevalent in the poorer EU countries (see e.g. https://www.handelszeitung.ch/panorama/hotel-mama-warum-junge-sudeuropaer-nicht-ausziehen https://www.handelszeitung.ch/panorama/hotel-mama-warum-jung...). When lots of young people are unemployed/underemployed and rents astronomical, they have to stay at their parents' home for very long time (in Croatia, average is 32 years). Hard to procreate when you don't have your own space and privacy to have sex in, and even harder to raise children in such conditions. Many Western countries seem to have adopted immigration as a band-aid fix against employment vacancy (Germany recruits its healthcare staff from countries as far away as the Philippines ffs), but exploiting migrants isn't sustainable in the long term - the "brain drain" kills the origin countries slowly (good luck finding a nurse on the Balkans). The real fix would be to improve on the conditions that parents need to have children: build affordable housing, (US specific) increase employment security by killing off "at will employment", raise minimum wages to a level where a single worker can feed a family on their wage, and provide assistance to parents.

chillacy 5y ago
> The real fix would be to improve on the conditions that parents need to have children I hear this a lot, but have difficulty squaring that with observational evidence: France for instance great employment security but is hovering at similar fertility with the US and UK (1.88 births/woman vs 1.73 US and 1.68 UK). The nordic countries are around the same (1.76 Sweden, 1.41 Finland). Singapore has gone through great lengths to try to raise fertility, having affordable housing and various social programs and government cheerleading, and it's at 1.14. Maybe each of these cases have other factors, and maybe observational evidence is not right way to look at this. Is there other evidence of this path leading to more fertility?
tomjen3 5y ago
A Japaneses salaryman has about the highest job security ever. Japan has not produced above 2 children per woman since the early 1970's[0]. I don't disagree with you that we need rent and housing to come down, but people who live in section 8 housing in the US are not known for having few children and if you raise the minimum wage too much, you are going to increase the number of people who are unemployed. [0]: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=JP https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?location...