I predicted a strong bullmarket in stocks, crypto and gold. Stocks and crypto turned out to be true, but I invested too much in gold. So that was an unpleasant

I predicted a strong bullmarket in stocks, crypto and gold. Stocks and crypto turned out to be true, but I invested too much in gold. So that was an unpleasant surprise. I predicted that corona wouldn't do much for environmental concerns. This is because the incentives are wrong. If you forbid people to fly they will want to fly. Forbid drugs they want drugs. One of the most famous and anecdotal stories is the story of how the potato became accepted as a crop in Europe: Count Dauphin, after surviving a prolonged prison stay and being sustained on solely potatoes, believed the potato was a miracle crop. He started a marketting campaign to get farmers to grow the crop. But all the farmers he asked balked at the idea. He even tried to pay farmers to grow the crop! The more he tried to push the crop on the farmers the more resistance he encountered. It was hopeless. Until he thought up a cunning plan: he planted a field with potatoes and made a big show of having guards guarding his "miracle crop". The guards were secretly instructed to not catch thieves though and within a few months all the farmers in the surrounding area had a potato crop growing. One prediction that I completely got wrong: that this pandemic would be different from the Spanish flu and that we would be in control in 6 months. The housing price bubble.