5 ms·

What happened to the solar companies in Germany?

by driton 5y ago

turbinerneiter 5y ago
We spent a lot of money on solar, lots of German companies started to fill the demand, the Chinese came in and dumped prices, Germany decided not to import-tax -> lots of German tax payer money spent on installing solar power, but all the German solar companies were priced out of the market by Chinese companies. Basically, Germany built Chinas solar industry, let our own die.
- Max-20 5y ago
  100%, sadly this is exactly how it played out.
- aembleton 5y ago
  Import taxes are decided by the EU, so it wouldn't have been simple for Germany to quickly react.
est31 5y ago
Germany entered a subsidy bidding war with China and eventually decided it's not worth the extreme skewing of the market and pulled out. This had the consequences that solar panels are now manufactured in China. IDK but from my point of view, solar panels are more dependent on salaries than chip manufacturing is.
- jansan 5y ago
  It's also low-tech compared to chip manufacturing.
corty 5y ago
Practically all went bancrupt between 10 and 12 years ago. Starting around 2000, Germany began to heavily subsidize private solar panel installations with guaranteed prices around 1Eur/kWh (later falling to 0.5Eur/kWh, now around 0.1Eur/kWh). With subsidies falling, demand dropped. And initial high subsidies (some claim, see [0]) made the industry too lazy to get competitive abroad, so around 2008 China began to ramp up production for cheaper panels at dumping prices. Politicians failed to react with import duties until it was too late (around 2013). Falling domestic demand, lower prices and higher production in China and political failure to protect domestic production all lead to the death of Germany's solar industry. Even big names such as Siemens solar branch, who could have easily weathered the storm and buy up their competition on the cheap, got out as fast as they could. Because political flailing signaled imminent doom and no betterment in the long term. Of course nowadays there is again political hypocrisy mounting around the need for shorter transport routes, domestic independence, more capacity, etc. But even so, measures to prop up European solar manufacturers are very weak, import duties have been lifted and China's production has now become too strong to oppose. So there is a little useless promising before an election, then silence. [0] https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/studie-zum-niedergang-deutsche-solarbranche-vor-der-sonnenfinsternis/6748936.html?ticket=ST-12845954-6UVnQ1rU7CDTjZZeR94f-ap6 https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/studie-zu... see also https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27942010#27943382 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27942010#27943382
- sabjut 5y ago
  I knew the Government mess up the solar market but I never knew just how much incompetence was at play there. Loosing industry to China (I am still furious about KUKA) is apparently a recreational sport for the CDU.
  - nkmnz 5y ago
    You got it wrong. The policies that heavily subsidized the solar industry were written by Merkel when she was the Minister for the Environmental Affairs in the 90s, but put in place by Minister Trittin from the Green Party after the '98 elections. The death of the German Solar industry was the result of KEEPING those subsidies TOO HIGH FOR TOO LONG. If the government makes sure that the demand is increasing at a very high pace, all you will do as a manufacturer is t put all the cash you can get your hands on into scaling your production with the current state of technology. You'll stop all R&D, because the immediate ROI of selling "state of the art crap" is much higher. In the mean time, China created competitive technology with lower cost and finally, at some point in time, they've even created the better solar panels.
    - Max-20 5y ago
      Thats sadly wrong, Chinas solar industry was heavily subsidized by the state to purposely crash the market prices of panels and ruin the solar industry of western countries. Once they succeeded they raised prices again to make profit.
      - yorwba 5y ago
        Have prices actually increased? Lazard's Levelized Cost of Energy analysis shows a steady decline in cost https://www.lazard.com/media/451447/grphx_lcoe-09-09.jpg https://www.lazard.com/media/451447/grphx_lcoe-09-09.jpg but that also includes operating costs. I can't find a source for the solar panels themselves.
        corty 5y ago

What happened to the solar companies in Germany?

by driton 5y ago

What happened to the solar companies in Germany?

We spent a lot of money on solar, lots of German companies started to fill the demand, the Chinese came in and dumped prices, Germany decided not to import-tax -> lots of German tax payer money spent on installing solar power, but all the German solar companies were priced out of the market by Chinese companies. Basically, Germany built Chinas solar industry, let our own die.

Max-20 5y ago
100%, sadly this is exactly how it played out.
aembleton 5y ago
Import taxes are decided by the EU, so it wouldn't have been simple for Germany to quickly react.

est31 5y ago

Germany entered a subsidy bidding war with China and eventually decided it's not worth the extreme skewing of the market and pulled out. This had the consequences that solar panels are now manufactured in China. IDK but from my point of view, solar panels are more dependent on salaries than chip manufacturing is.

jansan 5y ago
It's also low-tech compared to chip manufacturing.

corty 5y ago

Practically all went bancrupt between 10 and 12 years ago. Starting around 2000, Germany began to heavily subsidize private solar panel installations with guaranteed prices around 1Eur/kWh (later falling to 0.5Eur/kWh, now around 0.1Eur/kWh). With subsidies falling, demand dropped. And initial high subsidies (some claim, see [0]) made the industry too lazy to get competitive abroad, so around 2008 China began to ramp up production for cheaper panels at dumping prices. Politicians failed to react with import duties until it was too late (around 2013). Falling domestic demand, lower prices and higher production in China and political failure to protect domestic production all lead to the death of Germany's solar industry. Even big names such as Siemens solar branch, who could have easily weathered the storm and buy up their competition on the cheap, got out as fast as they could. Because political flailing signaled imminent doom and no betterment in the long term. Of course nowadays there is again political hypocrisy mounting around the need for shorter transport routes, domestic independence, more capacity, etc. But even so, measures to prop up European solar manufacturers are very weak, import duties have been lifted and China's production has now become too strong to oppose. So there is a little useless promising before an election, then silence. [0] https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/studie-zum-niedergang-deutsche-solarbranche-vor-der-sonnenfinsternis/6748936.html?ticket=ST-12845954-6UVnQ1rU7CDTjZZeR94f-ap6 https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/studie-zu... see also https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27942010#27943382 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27942010#27943382

sabjut 5y ago
I knew the Government mess up the solar market but I never knew just how much incompetence was at play there. Loosing industry to China (I am still furious about KUKA) is apparently a recreational sport for the CDU.
- nkmnz 5y ago
  You got it wrong. The policies that heavily subsidized the solar industry were written by Merkel when she was the Minister for the Environmental Affairs in the 90s, but put in place by Minister Trittin from the Green Party after the '98 elections. The death of the German Solar industry was the result of KEEPING those subsidies TOO HIGH FOR TOO LONG. If the government makes sure that the demand is increasing at a very high pace, all you will do as a manufacturer is t put all the cash you can get your hands on into scaling your production with the current state of technology. You'll stop all R&D, because the immediate ROI of selling "state of the art crap" is much higher. In the mean time, China created competitive technology with lower cost and finally, at some point in time, they've even created the better solar panels.
  - Max-20 5y ago
    Thats sadly wrong, Chinas solar industry was heavily subsidized by the state to purposely crash the market prices of panels and ruin the solar industry of western countries. Once they succeeded they raised prices again to make profit.
    - yorwba 5y ago
      Have prices actually increased? Lazard's Levelized Cost of Energy analysis shows a steady decline in cost https://www.lazard.com/media/451447/grphx_lcoe-09-09.jpg https://www.lazard.com/media/451447/grphx_lcoe-09-09.jpg but that also includes operating costs. I can't find a source for the solar panels themselves.
      - corty 5y ago