6 ms·

We should reduce crime in our cities and end homelessness so our cities are appealing places to live. As a conservative minded urbanist, it is disheartening to

We should reduce crime in our cities and end homelessness so our cities are appealing places to live. As a conservative minded urbanist, it is disheartening to see people leave cities because many american cities are descending into chaos and many people are not as dedicated to urban living as I am. Frankly if it weren't for my absolute hatred of car commiting, I would probably follow them. The suburbs offer a superior quality of life other than proximity of conveniences. That is all at this point. Covid destroyed culture. Homelessness and crime destroyed a true sense of community and shared ownership of public property.

trog 5y ago
> We should reduce crime in our cities and end homelessness so our cities are appealing places to live. The thing that would make my [Australian] city more appealing to live would be removing most of the cars from it. One of my big dislikes of inner city living is the noise, fumes and congestion from vehicles.
- iammisc 5y ago
  Well you live in Australia. In Portland where I live, murders have spiked and many of my local businesses have armed security now due to the decline in social cohesion due to the proliferation of false narratives.
whakim 5y ago
> As a conservative minded urbanist, it is disheartening to see people leave cities because many american cities are descending into chaos and many people are not as dedicated to urban living as I am. Total crime rates as well as violent crime rates have been declining almost continuously for about 30 years. In the early 90s, crime rates were more than double what they are today. Rates of homelessness are harder to measure, but the most comprehensive statistics (as measured annually by the Department of Housing and Urban Development) show that the total number of unhoused individuals hasn't changed drastically since 2007 when reporting began. While I do not deny that homelessness and crime are problems, American cities are not "descending into chaos" on the basis of rates of crime and homelessness.
- iammisc 5y ago
  Sure. I agree. But crime is measured by individuals relatively. The cities were very safe until the summer riots and the defund the police nonsense. Now crime is very clearly increasing despite the initial persistent denial of this obvious fact by certain politicians. Regardless of what the stats say, anyone with sense realizes this will drive people away from cities. Yes they are descending into chaos in the only way that matters... Relatively. Just today, my pregnant wife and daughter couldn't use our local public restroom because a junkie was shooting up. These sorts of interactions didn't even happen a year and a half ago. Now they're common. Surely you can see how this using to end if we keep up the denial that this is a problem by resting on our laurels.
  - whakim 5y ago
    But this isn't how people actually perceive crime: Pew has been polling Americans for decades about it [1], and Americans have consistently said that crime is rising even though that's almost never been the case. So as "measured by individuals relatively," nothing has changed. [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/11/20/facts-about-crime-in-the-u-s/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/11/20/facts-about...
    - iammisc 5y ago
      Okay, but crime is actually rising now in 2021 and late 2020, at least in my city of Portland. Again, I was not part of the people who have said over the last decade that crime is rising, because it's not. I'm just pointing out that it is right now, so these same people are going to become even more concerned, spooked, and make choices respecting that. This is what I don't understand about most people, especially those who look to the government for solutions. Instead of accepting people as they are, the arguments are over whether those people are wrong. If you want to influence human behavior, first you have to understand how they behave, not tell them their behavior is wrong.
      - whakim 5y ago
        > So these same people are going to become even more concerned, spooked, and make choices respecting that. That's exactly what I'm arguing against - where is the evidence that people are "more concerned"? The evidence suggests that people's concerns have no relationship to actual crime rates. Your statements about cities "descending into chaos" could have just as easily come from 1995, or 2005, or 2015. > This is what I don't understand about most people, especially those who look to the government for solutions. Instead of accepting people as they are, the arguments are over whether those people are wrong. If you want to influence human behavior, first you have to understand how they behave, not tell them their behavior is wrong. I'm not telling anyone their behavior is wrong. I'm saying that I don't think it's a good idea to base public policy primarily on peoples' perceptions of crime rates when those perceptions don't seem to have any bearing on reality. (Consider the counterfactual: if crime rates were continuously rising, and everyone thought they were decreasing, should we do nothing?) I think we should instead look at the actual facts on the ground before going crazy with the "cities decesnding into chaos" narrative: 1) violent crime rose 3% in 2020; 2) nonviolent crime actually fell in 2020; 3) the rise in violent crime was fueled by a rise in murder specifically - but murder rates have actually been rising since 2014 so this isn't a new phenomenon. This isn't a policy prescription and crime is not a simple subject, but I think if we want to solve issues (crime and homelessness) we have to be able to agree about a basic set of facts on the ground without resorting to hyperbole.

trog 5y ago

> We should reduce crime in our cities and end homelessness so our cities are appealing places to live. The thing that would make my [Australian] city more appealing to live would be removing most of the cars from it. One of my big dislikes of inner city living is the noise, fumes and congestion from vehicles.

iammisc 5y ago
Well you live in Australia. In Portland where I live, murders have spiked and many of my local businesses have armed security now due to the decline in social cohesion due to the proliferation of false narratives.

whakim 5y ago

> As a conservative minded urbanist, it is disheartening to see people leave cities because many american cities are descending into chaos and many people are not as dedicated to urban living as I am. Total crime rates as well as violent crime rates have been declining almost continuously for about 30 years. In the early 90s, crime rates were more than double what they are today. Rates of homelessness are harder to measure, but the most comprehensive statistics (as measured annually by the Department of Housing and Urban Development) show that the total number of unhoused individuals hasn't changed drastically since 2007 when reporting began. While I do not deny that homelessness and crime are problems, American cities are not "descending into chaos" on the basis of rates of crime and homelessness.

iammisc 5y ago
Sure. I agree. But crime is measured by individuals relatively. The cities were very safe until the summer riots and the defund the police nonsense. Now crime is very clearly increasing despite the initial persistent denial of this obvious fact by certain politicians. Regardless of what the stats say, anyone with sense realizes this will drive people away from cities. Yes they are descending into chaos in the only way that matters... Relatively. Just today, my pregnant wife and daughter couldn't use our local public restroom because a junkie was shooting up. These sorts of interactions didn't even happen a year and a half ago. Now they're common. Surely you can see how this using to end if we keep up the denial that this is a problem by resting on our laurels.
- whakim 5y ago
  But this isn't how people actually perceive crime: Pew has been polling Americans for decades about it [1], and Americans have consistently said that crime is rising even though that's almost never been the case. So as "measured by individuals relatively," nothing has changed. [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/11/20/facts-about-crime-in-the-u-s/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/11/20/facts-about...
  - iammisc 5y ago
    Okay, but crime is actually rising now in 2021 and late 2020, at least in my city of Portland. Again, I was not part of the people who have said over the last decade that crime is rising, because it's not. I'm just pointing out that it is right now, so these same people are going to become even more concerned, spooked, and make choices respecting that. This is what I don't understand about most people, especially those who look to the government for solutions. Instead of accepting people as they are, the arguments are over whether those people are wrong. If you want to influence human behavior, first you have to understand how they behave, not tell them their behavior is wrong.
    - whakim 5y ago
      > So these same people are going to become even more concerned, spooked, and make choices respecting that. That's exactly what I'm arguing against - where is the evidence that people are "more concerned"? The evidence suggests that people's concerns have no relationship to actual crime rates. Your statements about cities "descending into chaos" could have just as easily come from 1995, or 2005, or 2015. > This is what I don't understand about most people, especially those who look to the government for solutions. Instead of accepting people as they are, the arguments are over whether those people are wrong. If you want to influence human behavior, first you have to understand how they behave, not tell them their behavior is wrong. I'm not telling anyone their behavior is wrong. I'm saying that I don't think it's a good idea to base public policy primarily on peoples' perceptions of crime rates when those perceptions don't seem to have any bearing on reality. (Consider the counterfactual: if crime rates were continuously rising, and everyone thought they were decreasing, should we do nothing?) I think we should instead look at the actual facts on the ground before going crazy with the "cities decesnding into chaos" narrative: 1) violent crime rose 3% in 2020; 2) nonviolent crime actually fell in 2020; 3) the rise in violent crime was fueled by a rise in murder specifically - but murder rates have actually been rising since 2014 so this isn't a new phenomenon. This isn't a policy prescription and crime is not a simple subject, but I think if we want to solve issues (crime and homelessness) we have to be able to agree about a basic set of facts on the ground without resorting to hyperbole.