When you’re extremely unlikely to win by conventional means then a high variance strategy is the best way to maximize your chances of winning. Sure, if you play

When you’re extremely unlikely to win by conventional means then a high variance strategy is the best way to maximize your chances of winning. Sure, if you play this race out 50 times maybe she only wins 1 time by breaking away and hoping other riders flub up their response. But what were her odds of winning by staying with the peloton? 1/100? 1/200? As you said, she’s a mathematician - she knew exactly what she was doing.