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Well, if it's been in place since 2011, we should be able to see a sizeable drop in crime in then? #murders in Pasco County, FL in 2011: 13 #murders in Pasco C

Well, if it's been in place since 2011, we should be able to see a sizeable drop in crime in then? #murders in Pasco County, FL in 2011: 13 #murders in Pasco County, FL in 2019: 14 annual links available here: http://www.fdle.state.fl.us/FSAC/County-Profiles/Pasco.aspx http://www.fdle.state.fl.us/FSAC/County-Profiles/Pasco.aspx Now murder's only one crime, and I haven't done any sophisticated comparison (e.g. how does this compare to population growth, national or state trends, etc.). But it's not obvious that this is a program that is paying off. If you're doing something this obnoxious, you'd better have a really big, positive payoff to point to.

cartoonworld 5y ago
More than that, it would have to have to be statistically significant versus crime in similar counties, cities, and the country as a whole. Some quick searches[0] show an overall crime drop in the USA since 1999, ~2010, and certainly the beginning of the reporting period. Unless this activity is nationwide, which given the usual nature of the policing policy, I reject out of hand. One consideration about the 1990s crime drop should be the Lead-crime hypothesis[1], which basically refers to the banning and reduction of lead in fuel and consumer products in the 1970's bearing fruits a couple of decades later as people begin to mature in a less toxic environment. The information I have reviewed[2] about the US and even internationally[3] is quite compelling to me. Motherjones has collected all of this information.[4] There could be a similar phenomenon (not necessarily environmental, but prop65 passed in 1986 and there is also the 1974 SDWA[5] with substantial amendments in 1986, and 1996, as well as numerous changes in the period about the 1990s) affecting the country after about ~2000 and again ~2010, but I do not know of any other information supporting this analysis. [0] - https://www.statista.com/statistics/191219/reported-violent-crime-rate-in-the-usa-since-1990/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/191219/reported-violent-... [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead%E2%80%93crime_hypothesis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead%E2%80%93crime_hypothesis [2] - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412012000566 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016041201... [3] - https://pic.plover.com/Nevin/Nevin2007.pdf https://pic.plover.com/Nevin/Nevin2007.pdf [4] - https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposure-gasoline-crime-increase-children-health/ https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposur... [5] - http://www.epa.gov/laws-regulations/summary-safe-drinking-water-act http://www.epa.gov/laws-regulations/summary-safe-drinking-wa...

cartoonworld 5y ago

More than that, it would have to have to be statistically significant versus crime in similar counties, cities, and the country as a whole. Some quick searches[0] show an overall crime drop in the USA since 1999, ~2010, and certainly the beginning of the reporting period. Unless this activity is nationwide, which given the usual nature of the policing policy, I reject out of hand. One consideration about the 1990s crime drop should be the Lead-crime hypothesis[1], which basically refers to the banning and reduction of lead in fuel and consumer products in the 1970's bearing fruits a couple of decades later as people begin to mature in a less toxic environment. The information I have reviewed[2] about the US and even internationally[3] is quite compelling to me. Motherjones has collected all of this information.[4] There could be a similar phenomenon (not necessarily environmental, but prop65 passed in 1986 and there is also the 1974 SDWA[5] with substantial amendments in 1986, and 1996, as well as numerous changes in the period about the 1990s) affecting the country after about ~2000 and again ~2010, but I do not know of any other information supporting this analysis. [0] - https://www.statista.com/statistics/191219/reported-violent-crime-rate-in-the-usa-since-1990/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/191219/reported-violent-... [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead%E2%80%93crime_hypothesis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead%E2%80%93crime_hypothesis [2] - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412012000566 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016041201... [3] - https://pic.plover.com/Nevin/Nevin2007.pdf https://pic.plover.com/Nevin/Nevin2007.pdf [4] - https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposure-gasoline-crime-increase-children-health/ https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposur... [5] - http://www.epa.gov/laws-regulations/summary-safe-drinking-water-act http://www.epa.gov/laws-regulations/summary-safe-drinking-wa...