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> All credit to her for an extremely strong ride. And a better strategy, which is a major part of competition. People commenting on her being lucky. She had a

by spodek 5y ago

> All credit to her for an extremely strong ride. And a better strategy, which is a major part of competition. People commenting on her being lucky. She had a better strategy.

TomK32 5y ago
Breaks are rarely a winning strategy (on mountains they are, but those are a pure display of strength and will-power). Granted she is a mathematician and might be literate in road racing strategy but I'm sure a lot of that strategy is down to experience which she doesn't have.
- throw_nbvc1234 5y ago
  https://youtu.be/mccKzTdfXts https://youtu.be/mccKzTdfXts But when they are it's amazing to watch. Completely different circumstances though.
- peterbonney 5y ago
  When you’re extremely unlikely to win by conventional means then a high variance strategy is the best way to maximize your chances of winning. Sure, if you play this race out 50 times maybe she only wins 1 time by breaking away and hoping other riders flub up their response. But what were her odds of winning by staying with the peloton? 1/100? 1/200? As you said, she’s a mathematician - she knew exactly what she was doing.
- gameswithgo 5y ago
  An early break is often very unlikely to get you a win and also the best chance you have for a win, at the same time.
jamincan 5y ago
I mean, it worked in this case, but winning from the break, especially for an important race like this, is rare. They were definitely lucky.
- boshomi 5y ago
  She was at least 40km alone in the wind. There she needed 20-30% more energy then the riders in the peleton. So this was a incredible performance while the peleton calculated wrong.
  - LiamHex 5y ago
    And she was in the wind regularly (in a small group of 3) for the other 100km. Incredible.
    - hprotagonist 5y ago
      all that TT training really paid off!
- OscarCunningham 5y ago
  If you're losing then it's a good idea to take actions that increase the variance of the possible outcomes.
  - gameswithgo 5y ago
    Exactly, she was one of many underdog competitors, best bet for her is not a good one, but it can work, get in a break and hope for screw ups behind. That doesn't get you a win very often, but its not very rare either.
- usrusr 5y ago
  Road cycling is one of the sports where giving luck room to happen is a perfectly legitimate part of the game. Did others have a better hand? Maybe, but they failed to play it.
croes 5y ago
The others had no strategy because they didn't know she were upfront.
- diskzero 5y ago
  Other than showing up on time for the race, step one of your plan for winning is knowing the position of your competitors. This is road racing 101.
  - TomVDB 5y ago
    You’re not wrong. Eating well and training hard is also racing 101. But that has nothing to do with having a better strategy.
- slms 5y ago
  They still shouldn't have given the breakaway 10 minutes in a race as hard to control as this (with teams of 4). In the men's race, the favourite teams (Belgium and Slovenia) sacrificed riders earlier (Greg van Avermaet and Jan Tratnik respectively) to maintain the breakaway on a leash. The dutch women were arrogant and they paid for it.
TomVDB 5y ago
She won deservedly. And it was very entertaining. But there was luck involved, and in 99% of the cases, it’d be terrible advice and strategy to count on a major communications breakdown within the team of top favorites and (apparently) within the organization of the race themselves? “Strategy” is one of those words that’s used way too much in hindsight.
- michaelt 5y ago
  In any other sport, being ahead of the favourite by a wide margin for much of a race, then crossing the finishing line so far ahead that the second-place athlete isn't even in view, would be called a "resounding victory" rather than "lucky"
  - xadhominemx 5y ago
    Ok, but it was lucky
  - TomVDB 5y ago
    Have you considered the option that “resounding victory” and “being lucky” aren’t mutually incompatible concepts?

by spodek 5y ago

> All credit to her for an extremely strong ride. And a better strategy, which is a major part of competition. People commenting on her being lucky. She had a better strategy.

TomK32 5y ago

Breaks are rarely a winning strategy (on mountains they are, but those are a pure display of strength and will-power). Granted she is a mathematician and might be literate in road racing strategy but I'm sure a lot of that strategy is down to experience which she doesn't have.

throw_nbvc1234 5y ago
https://youtu.be/mccKzTdfXts https://youtu.be/mccKzTdfXts But when they are it's amazing to watch. Completely different circumstances though.
peterbonney 5y ago
When you’re extremely unlikely to win by conventional means then a high variance strategy is the best way to maximize your chances of winning. Sure, if you play this race out 50 times maybe she only wins 1 time by breaking away and hoping other riders flub up their response. But what were her odds of winning by staying with the peloton? 1/100? 1/200? As you said, she’s a mathematician - she knew exactly what she was doing.
gameswithgo 5y ago
An early break is often very unlikely to get you a win and also the best chance you have for a win, at the same time.

jamincan 5y ago

I mean, it worked in this case, but winning from the break, especially for an important race like this, is rare. They were definitely lucky.

boshomi 5y ago
She was at least 40km alone in the wind. There she needed 20-30% more energy then the riders in the peleton. So this was a incredible performance while the peleton calculated wrong.
- LiamHex 5y ago
  And she was in the wind regularly (in a small group of 3) for the other 100km. Incredible.
  - hprotagonist 5y ago
    all that TT training really paid off!
OscarCunningham 5y ago
If you're losing then it's a good idea to take actions that increase the variance of the possible outcomes.
- gameswithgo 5y ago
  Exactly, she was one of many underdog competitors, best bet for her is not a good one, but it can work, get in a break and hope for screw ups behind. That doesn't get you a win very often, but its not very rare either.
usrusr 5y ago
Road cycling is one of the sports where giving luck room to happen is a perfectly legitimate part of the game. Did others have a better hand? Maybe, but they failed to play it.

croes 5y ago

The others had no strategy because they didn't know she were upfront.

diskzero 5y ago
Other than showing up on time for the race, step one of your plan for winning is knowing the position of your competitors. This is road racing 101.
- TomVDB 5y ago
  You’re not wrong. Eating well and training hard is also racing 101. But that has nothing to do with having a better strategy.
slms 5y ago
They still shouldn't have given the breakaway 10 minutes in a race as hard to control as this (with teams of 4). In the men's race, the favourite teams (Belgium and Slovenia) sacrificed riders earlier (Greg van Avermaet and Jan Tratnik respectively) to maintain the breakaway on a leash. The dutch women were arrogant and they paid for it.

TomVDB 5y ago

She won deservedly. And it was very entertaining. But there was luck involved, and in 99% of the cases, it’d be terrible advice and strategy to count on a major communications breakdown within the team of top favorites and (apparently) within the organization of the race themselves? “Strategy” is one of those words that’s used way too much in hindsight.

michaelt 5y ago
In any other sport, being ahead of the favourite by a wide margin for much of a race, then crossing the finishing line so far ahead that the second-place athlete isn't even in view, would be called a "resounding victory" rather than "lucky"
- xadhominemx 5y ago
  Ok, but it was lucky
- TomVDB 5y ago
  Have you considered the option that “resounding victory” and “being lucky” aren’t mutually incompatible concepts?