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Could Vaccinating Young People Before Old People Save More Lives?

14 points by aidancooper 5y ago

melling 5y ago
That was the December 2020 question. In July 2021, supply far exceeds demand
- Tempest1981 5y ago
  In which countries? I was trying to find stats on that.
  - Tarsul 5y ago
    good question. Actually, I have a webpage bookmarked that should answer it for many countries: https://howmanyleft.info/ https://howmanyleft.info/ the page looks at the vaccinations in the last 2 weeks and extrapolates how long it would take to vaccinate 100 times per 100 adults (the website came before it became clear how tough the delta variant is, thus it's not as useful anymore but for your question it still is.) Definitely the US, UK, and the whole EU have more vaccinations than people who want to get a vaccine. this page might be helpful, too: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
    - rsynnott 5y ago
      > Definitely the US, UK, and the whole EU have more vaccinations than people who want to get a vaccine. This isn’t correct; while EU countries with low to medium demand have more vaccines than demand, countries with high demand still have a few weeks to go.
    - tobylane 5y ago
      Interesting site, but as nearly everyone is getting a two-dose type it's not helpful. The three you mention bought billions, with intentions for any one of them to be enough for domestic use and still have enough for the third world. The UK has only ever used two. Supply of jabs in the country would be an interesting stat to measure, I'm pretty sure the UK was supply limited until recently.
nickthemagicman 5y ago
Why would young people need to be vaccinated if the elderly have the vaccine and are the primary vulnerable population?
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- tgv 5y ago
  They die too, and suffer "long" covid. I have a colleague who was 23 when he caught it last year. Recovery took months: it just kept coming back. Then there's the possibility of damage to lung and neural tissue which can hamper you for the rest of your life. And young people spread more than elder, so there you go.
  - nickthemagicman 5y ago
    I wish people would be banned for passing off anecdotal stories as science. It's false information. 'Someones buddy' is not a scientific experimental group. Statistically it's equally as likely that 'someones buddy' is a huge hypochondriac. Young people do not 'spread more than elder'....if thats what it looks like it's supposed to mean.
- SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
  > Why would young people need to be vaccinated The article answers that as: to prevent them from spreading the disease to others who are more vulnerable to a bad outcome from the disease. I am safer because I am vaccinated. I am also safer when the people who I meet are also vaccinated and are less likely to spread the disease. Another good answer is that young people too can have bad outcomes from the disease. At a lower rate, but a lower rate times a large number of people is still a lot of bad outcomes.
  - nickthemagicman 5y ago
    I could see you point about restrictions on the young if there was no vaccine....but now placing the burden for other people's health on people who aren't vulnerable? It seems a bit repressive. It's simply up to the vulnerable populations to get the vaccine.
NoPie 5y ago
I don't think this has aged well. Theoretically it was an interesting idea but now we see that even in Israel where a big proportion of young people are now vaccinated, there still can be a great number of new covid cases. Fortunately hospitalizations and deaths are relatively very few but that's because the elderly have been almost 100% vaccinated. The main issue is that transmission still happens with the vaccine which means that superspreading events will be less active but will still happen. If elderly were not vaccinated they would succumb to illness and death. Maybe by QALY it would be net positive but I doubt even that.
postalrat 5y ago
No, but keeping them in school may have saved more lives.

14 points by aidancooper 5y ago

melling 5y ago

That was the December 2020 question. In July 2021, supply far exceeds demand

Tempest1981 5y ago
In which countries? I was trying to find stats on that.
- Tarsul 5y ago
  good question. Actually, I have a webpage bookmarked that should answer it for many countries: https://howmanyleft.info/ https://howmanyleft.info/ the page looks at the vaccinations in the last 2 weeks and extrapolates how long it would take to vaccinate 100 times per 100 adults (the website came before it became clear how tough the delta variant is, thus it's not as useful anymore but for your question it still is.) Definitely the US, UK, and the whole EU have more vaccinations than people who want to get a vaccine. this page might be helpful, too: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
  - rsynnott 5y ago
    > Definitely the US, UK, and the whole EU have more vaccinations than people who want to get a vaccine. This isn’t correct; while EU countries with low to medium demand have more vaccines than demand, countries with high demand still have a few weeks to go.
  - tobylane 5y ago
    Interesting site, but as nearly everyone is getting a two-dose type it's not helpful. The three you mention bought billions, with intentions for any one of them to be enough for domestic use and still have enough for the third world. The UK has only ever used two. Supply of jabs in the country would be an interesting stat to measure, I'm pretty sure the UK was supply limited until recently.

nickthemagicman 5y ago

Why would young people need to be vaccinated if the elderly have the vaccine and are the primary vulnerable population?

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
tgv 5y ago
They die too, and suffer "long" covid. I have a colleague who was 23 when he caught it last year. Recovery took months: it just kept coming back. Then there's the possibility of damage to lung and neural tissue which can hamper you for the rest of your life. And young people spread more than elder, so there you go.
- nickthemagicman 5y ago
  I wish people would be banned for passing off anecdotal stories as science. It's false information. 'Someones buddy' is not a scientific experimental group. Statistically it's equally as likely that 'someones buddy' is a huge hypochondriac. Young people do not 'spread more than elder'....if thats what it looks like it's supposed to mean.
SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
> Why would young people need to be vaccinated The article answers that as: to prevent them from spreading the disease to others who are more vulnerable to a bad outcome from the disease. I am safer because I am vaccinated. I am also safer when the people who I meet are also vaccinated and are less likely to spread the disease. Another good answer is that young people too can have bad outcomes from the disease. At a lower rate, but a lower rate times a large number of people is still a lot of bad outcomes.
- nickthemagicman 5y ago
  I could see you point about restrictions on the young if there was no vaccine....but now placing the burden for other people's health on people who aren't vulnerable? It seems a bit repressive. It's simply up to the vulnerable populations to get the vaccine.

NoPie 5y ago

I don't think this has aged well. Theoretically it was an interesting idea but now we see that even in Israel where a big proportion of young people are now vaccinated, there still can be a great number of new covid cases. Fortunately hospitalizations and deaths are relatively very few but that's because the elderly have been almost 100% vaccinated. The main issue is that transmission still happens with the vaccine which means that superspreading events will be less active but will still happen. If elderly were not vaccinated they would succumb to illness and death. Maybe by QALY it would be net positive but I doubt even that.

postalrat 5y ago

No, but keeping them in school may have saved more lives.