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The endless stream of EV pr pretending EV's are the inevitable future is getting pretty annoying. Used car sales are at an all time high in the US. power grids

The endless stream of EV pr pretending EV's are the inevitable future is getting pretty annoying. Used car sales are at an all time high in the US. power grids in most western countries and certainly in the USA are incapable of supporting a massive wave of EV's even if government sweeteners and ICE poison pills force 'adoption'. Cars today are far too tech heavy. People want simple, robust and long lived vehicles with far fewer bells and whistles. When you look back even 25 years it's very revealing how simple and longer lived they were.

toomuchtodo 5y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehicles#Places_with_planned_fossil-fuel_vehicle_bans https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehic... (Phase-out of fossil fuel vehicles: Places with planned fossil-fuel vehicle bans) Note, you don't have to ban combustion vehicles everywhere, but only in enough markets where there is no point for automakers to make them anymore for the remaining smaller markets. Once supply chains are reconfigured towards EVs, and light vehicle petroleum demand is on the decline, the death spiral for combustion vehicles is locked in. They're even half the cost per mile to operate versus a combustion vehicle (per the US DOE Alternative Fuels Data Center). Suppliers are already contemplating what the future looks like [1] [2]. [1] https://europe.autonews.com/suppliers/bosch-may-close-german-factory-amid-move-evs-report-says https://europe.autonews.com/suppliers/bosch-may-close-german... (Bosch may close German factory amid move to EVs, report says: Demand for the plant's electric fuel pumps and injection valves will decline) [2] https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2021/04/27/suppliers-group-urges-slow-shift-electric-autos-cites-job-concerns/4860450001/ https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2021/04/27/... (An advocacy group representing auto suppliers urged Congress on Tuesday not to back a speedy phase-out of gas-powered vehicles, arguing the shift will cost up to 30% of supplier jobs.) (my note: overlaps with this thread's article, but still has some novel information)
adrianN 5y ago
What alternative do you propose? Fossil fuels are out because of climate change. Hydrogen is out because of terrible energy efficiency. Synthetic fuels have even worse efficiency. A massive reduction in car ownership probably won't happen in the next twenty years either.
- taxicabjesus 5y ago
  Cities should be built for people, not cars. If people lived in cities that are as dense as pre-automobile cities were, most people could get by without their own personal automobile. Trains are relatively efficient and clean. I think of asphalt as a waste product of petroleum refining. What are roads supposed to be paved with, when there is not any asphalt to cover them? "'Non-exhaust particulate matter (PM) emissions by source and car size.' Electric vehicles will solve nothing of these problems." - https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/1386491243413135362 https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/1386491243413135362
  - adrianN 5y ago
    That is of course a good idea that I fully support, but remodeling cities will take way too long to meet climate targets. Also, a rather large fraction of the kilometers driven don't happen in cities. Public transportation in rural areas is quite difficult to set up because of the low density.
- olivermarks 5y ago
  @adrianN cheap, efficient vehicles with far less electronics, think VW Beetle, very basic, frugal and easy to maintain. ICE engines have never been more efficient, while EVs are at a very early stage of mass viability. I also feel connected cars should be optional, we are staring into a near future where all travel will be pre permission based and controlled via this apparatus which also tracks your every move regardless of power plant. The most urgent elements of EVs that need to be looked into are fire risk and control of wrecked vehicles, toxic battery element mining, processing and disposal and cost as previously mentioned. The sheer weight of EVs make tire pollution (a massive problem in urban areas from all vehicles) a big concern. All cars should revert back to a far more recyclable manufacturing state: the alloys and plastics modern vehicles are made from are not
  - adrianN 5y ago
    Sure, smaller, simpler, more recyclable cars are good. But ICEs are a no-go for climate change reasons. It doesn't matter if they're more efficient than ever, there is no viable path to get them carbon neutral.

toomuchtodo 5y ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehicles#Places_with_planned_fossil-fuel_vehicle_bans https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehic... (Phase-out of fossil fuel vehicles: Places with planned fossil-fuel vehicle bans) Note, you don't have to ban combustion vehicles everywhere, but only in enough markets where there is no point for automakers to make them anymore for the remaining smaller markets. Once supply chains are reconfigured towards EVs, and light vehicle petroleum demand is on the decline, the death spiral for combustion vehicles is locked in. They're even half the cost per mile to operate versus a combustion vehicle (per the US DOE Alternative Fuels Data Center). Suppliers are already contemplating what the future looks like [1] [2]. [1] https://europe.autonews.com/suppliers/bosch-may-close-german-factory-amid-move-evs-report-says https://europe.autonews.com/suppliers/bosch-may-close-german... (Bosch may close German factory amid move to EVs, report says: Demand for the plant's electric fuel pumps and injection valves will decline) [2] https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2021/04/27/suppliers-group-urges-slow-shift-electric-autos-cites-job-concerns/4860450001/ https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2021/04/27/... (An advocacy group representing auto suppliers urged Congress on Tuesday not to back a speedy phase-out of gas-powered vehicles, arguing the shift will cost up to 30% of supplier jobs.) (my note: overlaps with this thread's article, but still has some novel information)

adrianN 5y ago

What alternative do you propose? Fossil fuels are out because of climate change. Hydrogen is out because of terrible energy efficiency. Synthetic fuels have even worse efficiency. A massive reduction in car ownership probably won't happen in the next twenty years either.

taxicabjesus 5y ago
Cities should be built for people, not cars. If people lived in cities that are as dense as pre-automobile cities were, most people could get by without their own personal automobile. Trains are relatively efficient and clean. I think of asphalt as a waste product of petroleum refining. What are roads supposed to be paved with, when there is not any asphalt to cover them? "'Non-exhaust particulate matter (PM) emissions by source and car size.' Electric vehicles will solve nothing of these problems." - https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/1386491243413135362 https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/1386491243413135362
- adrianN 5y ago
  That is of course a good idea that I fully support, but remodeling cities will take way too long to meet climate targets. Also, a rather large fraction of the kilometers driven don't happen in cities. Public transportation in rural areas is quite difficult to set up because of the low density.
olivermarks 5y ago
@adrianN cheap, efficient vehicles with far less electronics, think VW Beetle, very basic, frugal and easy to maintain. ICE engines have never been more efficient, while EVs are at a very early stage of mass viability. I also feel connected cars should be optional, we are staring into a near future where all travel will be pre permission based and controlled via this apparatus which also tracks your every move regardless of power plant. The most urgent elements of EVs that need to be looked into are fire risk and control of wrecked vehicles, toxic battery element mining, processing and disposal and cost as previously mentioned. The sheer weight of EVs make tire pollution (a massive problem in urban areas from all vehicles) a big concern. All cars should revert back to a far more recyclable manufacturing state: the alloys and plastics modern vehicles are made from are not
- adrianN 5y ago
  Sure, smaller, simpler, more recyclable cars are good. But ICEs are a no-go for climate change reasons. It doesn't matter if they're more efficient than ever, there is no viable path to get them carbon neutral.