7 ms·

The people aren't being cast aside, but their skills aren't as valuable as they were 10 or 20 years ago. That's true for many people as economies change. I hope

by dbt00 5y ago

The people aren't being cast aside, but their skills aren't as valuable as they were 10 or 20 years ago. That's true for many people as economies change. I hope people who make a living drilling for oil also see less demand for their skills in the future. Is it sensible to retire instead of re-train at 59? Maybe. But if they chose not to, or weren't able to, there should be resources available to learn new skills.

mjevans 5y ago
The literal motor part is different, but much of the rest of the car hasn't changed that much. Breaks, alignment, interior components, doors, glass; paint and body too. Edit: post archive.is link in thread. The article is focused more on the design specialists involved with ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) motors and related parts. They probably do need retraining, and it would be a better service to all in the economy if such training were part of a government lead plan for all workers in need of a new field, though still paid for by industries that are in sunset.
- bin_bash 5y ago
  Yep, my Tesla is in the shop far more often than my Euro/Japan/US cars have ever been. Last month the entire passenger seat had to be replaced due to an SRS warning. Perhaps Tesla's poor build quality can keep these folks employed?
  - numpad0 5y ago
    That’s like telling kernel developers to go back to tech support jobs. Most of those losing jobs are not assembly workers.
    - 8note 5y ago
      I think it's more akin to telling COBOL programmers that everyone has migrated and that their skills aren't needed anymore
    - bin_bash 5y ago
      You're right, I hadn't considered that. It takes a lot more skill to build a transmission than a car seat.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- frosted-flakes 5y ago
  From the article: > Engine and transmission plants accounted for about 44% of all automotive factories globally in 2018, according to data from research firm IHS Markit. A Morgan Stanley report in 2019 estimated that a full transition to electric vehicles could lead to three million lost automotive jobs and cost auto makers tens of billions of dollars in restructuring costs.
  - mjevans 5y ago
    Those numbers are only extremely weakly correlated to specific jobs and specializations for those jobs. As a non-expert in this field it also does nothing to inform me of how readily those workers might transition to roughly equivalent jobs and how many are in need of a greater skills assessment and adaption of experiential knowledge to a proper field.
- petermcneeley 5y ago
  Nit: Breaks do change because of regenerative breaking.
  - bin_bash 5y ago
    Nit: Brakes (you both made this mistake)
    - chillwaves 5y ago
      Sometimes I also misspell words out of a misguided sense of solidarity. It's like having a conversation and someone keeps mispronouncing a word. Do you just imitate what they are saying and avoid correcting them or do you tell them they are wrong?
      - petermcneeley 5y ago
        Your right. Sometimes its nice to give people a brake.
        discordance 5y ago
        That’s your view and you’re very kind.
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
  - boatmansloth 5y ago
    Nobody in this thread can spell brakes it seems. The regenerative braking is done in the electric motor, not the calliper/disc. Nothing has changed there.
    - petermcneeley 5y ago
      When you push the 'brakes' on the an electric (or even hybrid) you simply engage the electric motor. There is a limit to how strong this form of braking can be so in certain cases you will need emergency brakes (disks or otherwise). So the brakes on an electric vehicle would be very different. I would guess in the future they wont even exist. It will just be the motors. Motors to wheels so no drive train either.
- adrianN 5y ago
  The motor and gearbox probably keep dozens of completely different companies busy though. There are lots of different bits and bobs in there that are manufactured by very specialized companies. Many of those jobs will go away in the next ten to twenty years.
- sliken 5y ago
  Seems like much more than just the motor. Tesla's have no gas tank, fuel pump, turbo, engine, transmission, catalytic converter, or exhaust. Even differentials are decreasing in number. Tesla is pushing for other simplifications as well. Things like touch screens instead of a complex dashboard. Air vectoring instead of a bunch of valves/grills for airflow. Even door handles seem to be on the way out.
  - xiphias2 5y ago
    There's lots of work and innovation to do on those simplifications. It's just a 58 year old person is not able to be as innovative as he was at 30 because of health reasons, and getting tired of hard working. I'm 40, far over my peak because of a chronic illness, but at least I invested my money well enough to live off of it.
dghughes 5y ago
Re-training is just a way to console someone to get them out the door of the company and then keep them busy for a year or two. It kicks the can down the road and puts the problem into the hands of someone else. No company will willingly hire people in their 50s (I'm 52 btw) unless it's a government job. They only other way would be to be given preferential treatment via quota/diversity; female, minority.
- dbt00 5y ago
  I'm 45 and not completely unfamiliar with the problem.
- pocw 5y ago
  This in no way matches my experience. My best employee is in his fifties. He has more experience and knowledge than the next three people put together. We call him in for difficult and subtle problems (he's a data tier expert and damn good at what he does). I'd love to have five more like him. Actually, I just signed a big contract yesterday so make that ten.
  - dghughes 5y ago
    I'm not arguing that people in their 50s are bad or stupid I'm saying the opposite. But I find and hear of businesses especially technology-based won't hire older people due to their age. Even back when I was in my early 30s at job fairs the recruiters wouldn't even speak to me. It could be because the people who hire at some businesses believe older workers are out of touch or get sick or maybe want to (or should) retire. But it's quite obvious there is a definite bias against older people wanting skilled work. Maybe not so bad if you were in the same field and try for a new job of the same but to re-train from assembly line worker to networking...no. I think it would be fine but many hiring for companies do not. Like I said I'm 52 I went back to school and work in IT. I've been a technician all my life in electronics and computers. I've had many jobs but mainly as a technician so for me it's not too bad.
    - dghughes 5y ago
bigmattystyles 5y ago
Retire at 59? Good luck.
redis_mlc 5y ago
> Is it sensible to retire instead of re-train at 59? Maybe. But if they chose not to, or weren't able to, there should be resources available to learn new skills. Retraining is largely (ie. 99%) a fantasy in the US for older workers. Career counsellors generally try to get them on long-term disability rather than blow smoke up their ass.

by dbt00 5y ago

mjevans 5y ago

The literal motor part is different, but much of the rest of the car hasn't changed that much. Breaks, alignment, interior components, doors, glass; paint and body too. Edit: post archive.is link in thread. The article is focused more on the design specialists involved with ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) motors and related parts. They probably do need retraining, and it would be a better service to all in the economy if such training were part of a government lead plan for all workers in need of a new field, though still paid for by industries that are in sunset.

bin_bash 5y ago
Yep, my Tesla is in the shop far more often than my Euro/Japan/US cars have ever been. Last month the entire passenger seat had to be replaced due to an SRS warning. Perhaps Tesla's poor build quality can keep these folks employed?
- numpad0 5y ago
  That’s like telling kernel developers to go back to tech support jobs. Most of those losing jobs are not assembly workers.
  - 8note 5y ago
    I think it's more akin to telling COBOL programmers that everyone has migrated and that their skills aren't needed anymore
  - bin_bash 5y ago
    You're right, I hadn't considered that. It takes a lot more skill to build a transmission than a car seat.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
frosted-flakes 5y ago
From the article: > Engine and transmission plants accounted for about 44% of all automotive factories globally in 2018, according to data from research firm IHS Markit. A Morgan Stanley report in 2019 estimated that a full transition to electric vehicles could lead to three million lost automotive jobs and cost auto makers tens of billions of dollars in restructuring costs.
- mjevans 5y ago
  Those numbers are only extremely weakly correlated to specific jobs and specializations for those jobs. As a non-expert in this field it also does nothing to inform me of how readily those workers might transition to roughly equivalent jobs and how many are in need of a greater skills assessment and adaption of experiential knowledge to a proper field.
petermcneeley 5y ago
Nit: Breaks do change because of regenerative breaking.
- bin_bash 5y ago
  Nit: Brakes (you both made this mistake)
  - chillwaves 5y ago
    Sometimes I also misspell words out of a misguided sense of solidarity. It's like having a conversation and someone keeps mispronouncing a word. Do you just imitate what they are saying and avoid correcting them or do you tell them they are wrong?
    - petermcneeley 5y ago
      Your right. Sometimes its nice to give people a brake.
      - discordance 5y ago
        That’s your view and you’re very kind.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
- boatmansloth 5y ago
  Nobody in this thread can spell brakes it seems. The regenerative braking is done in the electric motor, not the calliper/disc. Nothing has changed there.
  - petermcneeley 5y ago
    When you push the 'brakes' on the an electric (or even hybrid) you simply engage the electric motor. There is a limit to how strong this form of braking can be so in certain cases you will need emergency brakes (disks or otherwise). So the brakes on an electric vehicle would be very different. I would guess in the future they wont even exist. It will just be the motors. Motors to wheels so no drive train either.
adrianN 5y ago
The motor and gearbox probably keep dozens of completely different companies busy though. There are lots of different bits and bobs in there that are manufactured by very specialized companies. Many of those jobs will go away in the next ten to twenty years.
sliken 5y ago
Seems like much more than just the motor. Tesla's have no gas tank, fuel pump, turbo, engine, transmission, catalytic converter, or exhaust. Even differentials are decreasing in number. Tesla is pushing for other simplifications as well. Things like touch screens instead of a complex dashboard. Air vectoring instead of a bunch of valves/grills for airflow. Even door handles seem to be on the way out.
- xiphias2 5y ago
  There's lots of work and innovation to do on those simplifications. It's just a 58 year old person is not able to be as innovative as he was at 30 because of health reasons, and getting tired of hard working. I'm 40, far over my peak because of a chronic illness, but at least I invested my money well enough to live off of it.

dghughes 5y ago

Re-training is just a way to console someone to get them out the door of the company and then keep them busy for a year or two. It kicks the can down the road and puts the problem into the hands of someone else. No company will willingly hire people in their 50s (I'm 52 btw) unless it's a government job. They only other way would be to be given preferential treatment via quota/diversity; female, minority.

dbt00 5y ago
I'm 45 and not completely unfamiliar with the problem.
pocw 5y ago
This in no way matches my experience. My best employee is in his fifties. He has more experience and knowledge than the next three people put together. We call him in for difficult and subtle problems (he's a data tier expert and damn good at what he does). I'd love to have five more like him. Actually, I just signed a big contract yesterday so make that ten.
- dghughes 5y ago
  I'm not arguing that people in their 50s are bad or stupid I'm saying the opposite. But I find and hear of businesses especially technology-based won't hire older people due to their age. Even back when I was in my early 30s at job fairs the recruiters wouldn't even speak to me. It could be because the people who hire at some businesses believe older workers are out of touch or get sick or maybe want to (or should) retire. But it's quite obvious there is a definite bias against older people wanting skilled work. Maybe not so bad if you were in the same field and try for a new job of the same but to re-train from assembly line worker to networking...no. I think it would be fine but many hiring for companies do not. Like I said I'm 52 I went back to school and work in IT. I've been a technician all my life in electronics and computers. I've had many jobs but mainly as a technician so for me it's not too bad.
  - dghughes 5y ago

bigmattystyles 5y ago

Retire at 59? Good luck.

redis_mlc 5y ago

> Is it sensible to retire instead of re-train at 59? Maybe. But if they chose not to, or weren't able to, there should be resources available to learn new skills. Retraining is largely (ie. 99%) a fantasy in the US for older workers. Career counsellors generally try to get them on long-term disability rather than blow smoke up their ass.