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There is actually a phenomenon colloquially called "extend and pretend," where it's better for commercial properties to sit vacant or half-vacant than lower the
by burlesona 5y ago
There is actually a phenomenon colloquially called "extend and pretend," where it's better for commercial properties to sit vacant or half-vacant than lower the rent.
The reason is, the building is financed based on it's calculated property value, and commercial property value is simply a multiple of the listed rent. Whether or not you're collecting the rent is immaterial -- after all it's perfectly normal to buy a vacant lot and built a building on it, or to buy an old warehouse etc. and refurbish it, etc., such that the bank has to make the lending decision based on projected rent rather than actual rent. So this is what they do.
The problem is only when the projections are proven false, such as when you lower the rent to fill the space. If you do that, the bank must now lower the value of the building, which can easily make the building worth less than the loan.
Further complicating things, commercial properties are usually on short-term financing, for example a 5-year "revolving" loan where the developer pays interest only for 5-years and then is expected to pay off the loan all at once (unlikely) or refinance (99% of the time).
So, suppose the building has a $8M loan based on a theoretical $10M valuation. The developer is making the payments, whether from the partial rent, or his personal bank account, even though the building is vacant. The loan is now due to be refinanced.
If the developer says, "I'll get a tenant in here any day now," the banker can nod and say "I believe you," and refinance the building. The developer keeps paying the payments and doesn't have to go bankrupt. The banker doesn't have to foreclose and write off the loan as a loss.
Conversely, if the developer had cut the rent in half to get the building full, the banker now has to lower the building's value from $10M to $5M, and therefore the maximum loan is reduced to $4M. But the developer owes $8M to the bank, and doesn't have the money to pay it off. Not even the $4M to cover the difference and refinance the rest.
In this scenario, the developer goes bankrupt and the bank has to foreclose on the property.
Thus both parties choose "extend and pretend" as the rational action, even though it's not good for the developer and terrible for the surrounding community.
From my friends in the real estate business, my understanding is that a shocking percentage of commercial real estate is currently operating in this "extend and pretend mode," which ironically just reinforces the pattern, since all the players involved know that if the banks started forcing the issue they would likely kick off a chain reaction of bankruptcies, write-offs, and a destabilized real estate market that would lead to huge losses for most or all of them.
So instead, "this is fine."
- el_nahual 5y agoThis makes a lot of sense--it seems that the real problem is rent "stickiness." And there's a lot of factors making rent sticky: the financing structure you mentioned, maybe the bimodal distribution of tenants I'd hypothesized. In residential there's also the "unintended consequence" of quite a few tenant's rights laws that makes rent extra sticky (why do you think NYC landlords require proof of 40x monthly rent as income?!) But what doesn't seem to bek the case is simply chalking it up to "tax breaks" which is a common boogyman.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- clairity 5y agothere is certainly a tension between the bank and the developer/owner over potential default, but the mechanism isn't simply the developer/owner presenting financial projections and bankers being relegated to only accepting their word and being stuck with a bankruptcy ultimatum if the deal goes sour. commercial appraisers must validate the assumptions and calculations based on prevailing conditions and comps. the question is really who should take the risk of getting the projections wrong, and the answer is straightforwardly the bank, although the developer/owner has to act in good faith in both the financing and the operations. a new development is basically a finite business, and projecting the cash flows, and therefore the ultimate valuation, is risky. loan officers' principal job is to assess (and accept/reject) that risk. all that said, we need to stop propping up banks and loans gone bad. without real downside consequences, we get misallocation, as we plainly see in many commercial real estate markets.
- pasabagi 5y agoIt seems to me that real estate is the locus of a colossal regulatory failure that has already created one trainwreck (2008) and will just continue to spawn more until people start taking a look at the system and honestly evaluating how much of it is rational. Making everybody who wants to live in a stable home get involved in the real estate market is sort of like making everybody who wants a computer buy tech stocks. It's insane, and leads to a completely insane market. I own a house despite the fact I know nothing about houses and don't want to own a house, because the alternatives are far worse. When you get a situation where the incentives are all set up to make people act in a way that's not only destructive, but also blatantly unsustainable for everybody involved, it means the government is sleeping at the wheel.