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Would this not be considered out of the ordinary then [1]? I couldn't care less about the conspiratorial rhetoric. I just think he does a good job of finding

Would this not be considered out of the ordinary then [1]? I couldn't care less about the conspiratorial rhetoric. I just think he does a good job of finding and synthesizing interesting news on crops. [1]https://www.forbes.com/sites/salgilbertie/2021/04/28/shrinking-global-grain-supplies-have-little-hope-of-replenishment-until-2022or-beyond/?sh=5edea174378a https://www.forbes.com/sites/salgilbertie/2021/04/28/shrinki...

colechristensen 5y ago
The abnormal is normal with ag production. There’s always a drought or a flood somewhere or over or under supply, market forces and bad predictions. Volatility is normal when you are beholden to the weather, pests, and shifting demand. People choose what to plant or to plant at all in marginal land, they choose cultivars targeting specific weather patterns that are right or wrong, or a weather pattern makes a great year or a terrible one. This is all situation normal. A lot of market analysis is just filling space with words or inventing attribution.
- briefcomment 5y ago
  I see. So you would say that cutting farmers off from access to water they've had access to before, as stated in the featured article, is reasonable then in the current circumstances?
  - colechristensen 5y ago
    Probably. The status quo of how water is used and where people live and farm in california is inappropriate for the old climate (much less how the climate will change) and how much water there is and where it is. Climate change and population growth are making this worse and the need for people to not live some places and not farm some places seems inevitable. Change is hard but necessary and will involve some difficult choices.
  - resonantjacket5 5y ago
    If there's a water drought every year -- it's not really a temporary drought. There's permanently less water now. Some person/industries needs to use less water and the urban sector is only using 10~15% even major cuts there aren't enough to make up the shortfall.

colechristensen 5y ago

The abnormal is normal with ag production. There’s always a drought or a flood somewhere or over or under supply, market forces and bad predictions. Volatility is normal when you are beholden to the weather, pests, and shifting demand. People choose what to plant or to plant at all in marginal land, they choose cultivars targeting specific weather patterns that are right or wrong, or a weather pattern makes a great year or a terrible one. This is all situation normal. A lot of market analysis is just filling space with words or inventing attribution.

briefcomment 5y ago
I see. So you would say that cutting farmers off from access to water they've had access to before, as stated in the featured article, is reasonable then in the current circumstances?
- colechristensen 5y ago
  Probably. The status quo of how water is used and where people live and farm in california is inappropriate for the old climate (much less how the climate will change) and how much water there is and where it is. Climate change and population growth are making this worse and the need for people to not live some places and not farm some places seems inevitable. Change is hard but necessary and will involve some difficult choices.
- resonantjacket5 5y ago
  If there's a water drought every year -- it's not really a temporary drought. There's permanently less water now. Some person/industries needs to use less water and the urban sector is only using 10~15% even major cuts there aren't enough to make up the shortfall.