7 ms·

Realistically, what stage of testing/maturity starship need to pass so that SLS is officially cancelled?

by gpt5 5y ago

Denvercoder9 5y ago
It's irrelevant. For Congress, SLS is primarily a jobs program. They want it to continue as long as they can make up any reason to do that, regardless of the practical use.
- akiselev 5y ago
  The jobs program is the practical use - national security requires maintaining an industrial base, or at least that's the theory (don't know how valid it is).
  - foobiekr 5y ago
    If only there was such a project for advanced fabrication for chips maybe we wouldn’t find ourselves in the current situation.
    - cma 5y ago
      We do, EUV LLC. was subsidized by the US govt (via DARPA) and a US industry consortium in the 90s. Lots of the tech went to European allies in I think a sale/collaboration at some point but we maintained power due to that initial seed and have used it for things like trade restrictions on the technology. (1998) https://www.semiconductoronline.com/doc/euv-llc-enters-development-agreement-with-new-0001 https://www.semiconductoronline.com/doc/euv-llc-enters-devel...
- nerdponx 5y ago
  I will never understand why jobs programs can't also be useful. Didn't we build a lot of infrastructure that way in the 30s?
khuey 5y ago
Senator Richard Shelby's retirement, for one.
themgt 5y ago
If Starship works, it's going to be almost a state-change moment in the space industry. They aren't just building a single test vehicle for a demo mission, they're building factories churning out engines, rockets, GSE, building launch pads, etc. They might take a few tries to nail a first orbital launch, once that happens (and assuming no undue regulatory hurdles) their launch cadence may start picking up dramatically within 3-6 months of a success. If eighteen months from now Starship has launched a ~dozen or more times and SLS once, I'd imagine they might wrap up SLS with Artemis 2, which should be mostly complete by then. At a total program cost of ~$24 billion for 2 flights it would be quite ... something, but it's hard to see them continuing much beyond that. They'd just figure out a way to use Crew Dragon/Starliner to get to Starship for lunar missions (assuming they're not going to want to launch/land humans on Earth on Starship for a while).
- paulsutter 5y ago
  When. When Starship works
  - flafla2 5y ago
    I share your optimism but I think it it is unrealistic to unquestionably assume that SpaceX will continue to succeed. The very nature of the problems that they are trying to solve is such that failure is always a possibility. I don’t say this as a slight to SpaceX… on the contrary the risk is what makes them so exciting!
    - sneak 5y ago
      I mean, the way they succeed with Starship is failing over and over again until they don't anymore. In that sense it is (now, not before SpaceX was scaled up) solely an issue of funding: will it work before the company runs out of cash? At this point, I imagine most every investor in Earth would be tripping over their own legs to buy SpaceX stock if they could. If they ever run low, their ability to raise more money is as sure a thing as anything in this world these days. Additionally, Starlink is going to be an absolute revenue monster very soon, even if Starship for some reason ends up taking another decade to get working. The only way Starship fails is if SpaceX goes broke. SpaceX is not going to go broke. Therefore, Starship will eventually work, after some variable and as yet indeterminate number of prototype failures.

Realistically, what stage of testing/maturity starship need to pass so that SLS is officially cancelled?

by gpt5 5y ago

Realistically, what stage of testing/maturity starship need to pass so that SLS is officially cancelled?

It's irrelevant. For Congress, SLS is primarily a jobs program. They want it to continue as long as they can make up any reason to do that, regardless of the practical use.

akiselev 5y ago
The jobs program is the practical use - national security requires maintaining an industrial base, or at least that's the theory (don't know how valid it is).
- foobiekr 5y ago
  If only there was such a project for advanced fabrication for chips maybe we wouldn’t find ourselves in the current situation.
  - cma 5y ago
    We do, EUV LLC. was subsidized by the US govt (via DARPA) and a US industry consortium in the 90s. Lots of the tech went to European allies in I think a sale/collaboration at some point but we maintained power due to that initial seed and have used it for things like trade restrictions on the technology. (1998) https://www.semiconductoronline.com/doc/euv-llc-enters-development-agreement-with-new-0001 https://www.semiconductoronline.com/doc/euv-llc-enters-devel...
nerdponx 5y ago
I will never understand why jobs programs can't also be useful. Didn't we build a lot of infrastructure that way in the 30s?

khuey 5y ago

Senator Richard Shelby's retirement, for one.

themgt 5y ago

If Starship works, it's going to be almost a state-change moment in the space industry. They aren't just building a single test vehicle for a demo mission, they're building factories churning out engines, rockets, GSE, building launch pads, etc. They might take a few tries to nail a first orbital launch, once that happens (and assuming no undue regulatory hurdles) their launch cadence may start picking up dramatically within 3-6 months of a success. If eighteen months from now Starship has launched a ~dozen or more times and SLS once, I'd imagine they might wrap up SLS with Artemis 2, which should be mostly complete by then. At a total program cost of ~$24 billion for 2 flights it would be quite ... something, but it's hard to see them continuing much beyond that. They'd just figure out a way to use Crew Dragon/Starliner to get to Starship for lunar missions (assuming they're not going to want to launch/land humans on Earth on Starship for a while).

paulsutter 5y ago
When. When Starship works
- flafla2 5y ago
  I share your optimism but I think it it is unrealistic to unquestionably assume that SpaceX will continue to succeed. The very nature of the problems that they are trying to solve is such that failure is always a possibility. I don’t say this as a slight to SpaceX… on the contrary the risk is what makes them so exciting!
  - sneak 5y ago
    I mean, the way they succeed with Starship is failing over and over again until they don't anymore. In that sense it is (now, not before SpaceX was scaled up) solely an issue of funding: will it work before the company runs out of cash? At this point, I imagine most every investor in Earth would be tripping over their own legs to buy SpaceX stock if they could. If they ever run low, their ability to raise more money is as sure a thing as anything in this world these days. Additionally, Starlink is going to be an absolute revenue monster very soon, even if Starship for some reason ends up taking another decade to get working. The only way Starship fails is if SpaceX goes broke. SpaceX is not going to go broke. Therefore, Starship will eventually work, after some variable and as yet indeterminate number of prototype failures.