3 ms·

Yeah I just read stuff like that and tune out because it so resolutely silly. It takes a huge amount of energy to get into orbit. Other than satellites and a

Yeah I just read stuff like that and tune out because it so resolutely silly. It takes a huge amount of energy to get into orbit. Other than satellites and a space station, we have nothing in space. But we're gonna move heavy industry into space on any sort of foreseeable timeline? Sure, if we figure out anti-gravity or cold fusion or something. Meanwhile, it is actually achievable to reduce the environmental impact of heavy industry and agriculture on Earth, reduce consumption, etc. It would also be a lot more impactful to invest billions into stuff like that instead of space access.

jjoonathan 5y ago
> it so resolutely silly All technological leaps sound silly until they happen. > It takes a huge amount of energy to get into orbit Sure, for the initial resources that you haul up there, but heavy industry begets heavy industry -- and light industry, and everything inbetween. Once you can build in space without hauling resources up the gravity well, costs go down, and the cost floor is a lot lower than it is on Earth, in the long run. We'll probably never see the crossover but our grandchildren might. > Meanwhile, it is actually achievable to reduce the environmental impact of heavy industry and agriculture on Earth, reduce consumption We should chase those paths further than we have, but in the long run it's a game of diminishing returns. You can only be so efficient before the victories become pyrrhic and even then you will still be a long ways from zero-impact. Space scales all the way to turning Earth into a nature preserve (not that we would or should, but we could). > It would also be a lot more impactful to invest billions into stuff like that instead of space access. Today? Yes. A hundred years from now? Maybe. Two hundred? No way.
- shkkmo 5y ago
  > the cost floor is a lot lower than it is on Earth. Thia is pretty speculative. There are significant engineering overheads due to thermal and environmental design constraints that could easily place the cost floor for many industries higher in space than on earth. The truth of this assertion is wholey dependent of a bunch of speculative technologies of unknown feasibility. The major advantage of space is the capacity to scale production and resources beyond what earth can support. Thete is good reason to think we can do this, but also good reason to be skeptical of potential wishful thinking in this area.

jjoonathan 5y ago

> it so resolutely silly All technological leaps sound silly until they happen. > It takes a huge amount of energy to get into orbit Sure, for the initial resources that you haul up there, but heavy industry begets heavy industry -- and light industry, and everything inbetween. Once you can build in space without hauling resources up the gravity well, costs go down, and the cost floor is a lot lower than it is on Earth, in the long run. We'll probably never see the crossover but our grandchildren might. > Meanwhile, it is actually achievable to reduce the environmental impact of heavy industry and agriculture on Earth, reduce consumption We should chase those paths further than we have, but in the long run it's a game of diminishing returns. You can only be so efficient before the victories become pyrrhic and even then you will still be a long ways from zero-impact. Space scales all the way to turning Earth into a nature preserve (not that we would or should, but we could). > It would also be a lot more impactful to invest billions into stuff like that instead of space access. Today? Yes. A hundred years from now? Maybe. Two hundred? No way.

shkkmo 5y ago
> the cost floor is a lot lower than it is on Earth. Thia is pretty speculative. There are significant engineering overheads due to thermal and environmental design constraints that could easily place the cost floor for many industries higher in space than on earth. The truth of this assertion is wholey dependent of a bunch of speculative technologies of unknown feasibility. The major advantage of space is the capacity to scale production and resources beyond what earth can support. Thete is good reason to think we can do this, but also good reason to be skeptical of potential wishful thinking in this area.