4 ms·

1) All current variations of concern come from mostly unvaccinated countries. Apparently there's a serious issue with immunocompromised individuals and the vacc

by yyyk 5y ago

1) All current variations of concern come from mostly unvaccinated countries. Apparently there's a serious issue with immunocompromised individuals and the vaccines may help prevent that: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-variants-may-arise-in-people-with-compromised-immune-systems/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-variants-ma... 2) We can see with SARS and MERS that a more deadly form may actually reduce overall mortality, since the virus can't spread as effectively. However, we haven't had this effect so far.

erdewit 5y ago
From the article: > Analysis of samples from the patient showed that the virus evolved rapidly after the plasma therapy, developing mutations that changed how it could infect cells and resist antibodies. Seems to be that the plasma therapy (injecting antibodies) is responsible here.
- yyyk 5y ago
  There are cases of mutation in immunocompromised preceding plasma therapy, e.g.: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/02/05/964447070/where-did-the-coronavirus-variants-come-from https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/02/05/9644470...
jstanley 5y ago
> All current variations of concern come from mostly unvaccinated countries. Isn't it more significant not where they emerge (which is by random mutation) but where they do well? And don't they seem to do well in countries that have vaccinated more people? Is it even particularly easy to say where a variant originated? Could the mutations happen multiple times independently?
- yyyk 5y ago
  >Isn't it more significant not where they emerge (which is by random mutation) but where they do well? Random mutation happens more when we give it more chances, by letting it infect more unprotected people. We'd rather avoid that, so it's also important. >Is it even particularly easy to say where a variant originated? No, but we have gene sampling to help. >Could the mutations happen multiple times independently? They can and sometimes do happen independently.
- maxerickson 5y ago
  The Delta variant is a humanitarian crisis in less vaccinated India and a moderate public health concern in countries with higher rates of vaccination.
  - jstanley 5y ago
    From this page: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/india https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/india India seems to be doing better than the UK on basically every metric (switch to "Map" view for comparison).
    - mensetmanusman 5y ago
      Obesity rates correlate as well.
    - maxerickson 5y ago
      Do deaths per million over the last 3 months instead of the last 7 days.
    - pas 5y ago
      There are arguments that they seriously undercount/underreport: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/20/world/asia/india-covid-pandemic-excess-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/20/world/asia/india-covid-pa... https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/05/25/world/asia/india-covid-death-estimates.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/05/25/world/asia/in...
ignoramous 5y ago
> We can see with SARS and MERS that a more deadly form may actually reduce overall mortality, since the virus can't spread as effectively. However, we haven't had this effect so far. As GP pointed out, when the unvaccinated are at risk and vaccinated ones are carriers, the dynamics don't remain the same as in the case of Ebola / Nipah / MERS / J. Encephalitis, because the infection retains its virulence while evolutionary pressure selects for a fatal variant, a deadly combination.

by yyyk 5y ago

erdewit 5y ago

From the article: > Analysis of samples from the patient showed that the virus evolved rapidly after the plasma therapy, developing mutations that changed how it could infect cells and resist antibodies. Seems to be that the plasma therapy (injecting antibodies) is responsible here.

yyyk 5y ago
There are cases of mutation in immunocompromised preceding plasma therapy, e.g.: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/02/05/964447070/where-did-the-coronavirus-variants-come-from https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/02/05/9644470...

jstanley 5y ago

> All current variations of concern come from mostly unvaccinated countries. Isn't it more significant not where they emerge (which is by random mutation) but where they do well? And don't they seem to do well in countries that have vaccinated more people? Is it even particularly easy to say where a variant originated? Could the mutations happen multiple times independently?

yyyk 5y ago
>Isn't it more significant not where they emerge (which is by random mutation) but where they do well? Random mutation happens more when we give it more chances, by letting it infect more unprotected people. We'd rather avoid that, so it's also important. >Is it even particularly easy to say where a variant originated? No, but we have gene sampling to help. >Could the mutations happen multiple times independently? They can and sometimes do happen independently.
maxerickson 5y ago
The Delta variant is a humanitarian crisis in less vaccinated India and a moderate public health concern in countries with higher rates of vaccination.
- jstanley 5y ago
  From this page: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/india https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/india India seems to be doing better than the UK on basically every metric (switch to "Map" view for comparison).
  - mensetmanusman 5y ago
    Obesity rates correlate as well.
  - maxerickson 5y ago
    Do deaths per million over the last 3 months instead of the last 7 days.
  - pas 5y ago
    There are arguments that they seriously undercount/underreport: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/20/world/asia/india-covid-pandemic-excess-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/20/world/asia/india-covid-pa... https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/05/25/world/asia/india-covid-death-estimates.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/05/25/world/asia/in...

ignoramous 5y ago

> We can see with SARS and MERS that a more deadly form may actually reduce overall mortality, since the virus can't spread as effectively. However, we haven't had this effect so far. As GP pointed out, when the unvaccinated are at risk and vaccinated ones are carriers, the dynamics don't remain the same as in the case of Ebola / Nipah / MERS / J. Encephalitis, because the infection retains its virulence while evolutionary pressure selects for a fatal variant, a deadly combination.