6 ms·
Things that are always 10 years away: [1] Those aeroplanes that can fly from London to Australia in 2 hours [2] Cold Fusion [3] Quantum computing
by gadders 5y ago
Things that are always 10 years away:
[1] Those aeroplanes that can fly from London to Australia in 2 hours
[2] Cold Fusion
[3] Quantum computing
- lr4444lr 5y agoCold fusion is still a hypothesis. As for that airplane ride, I dunno who was selling you that. What kind of fuel would the jet even use? Quantum Computing though is already here, it's just not practical for much outside of a lab setting.
- tsimionescu 5y agoQC is here in theory, but it is not practical for anything - the experiments so far were only intended to prove that the thing was an actual quantum computer in the complexity theory sense. But it is impossible to actually use Google's device or the one in China to compute anything at all, even something like factoring 4 using Shor's algorithm is beyond the current capabilities. There is perhaps some more debate about D-Wave's device,both its status as a QC and its usefulness.
- gswdh 5y agoDon’t forget solid state batteries.
- chki 5y agoThe distance from London to Sydney is 17.000km. The current flight airspeed record is 3.500km/h. I would doubt that anything close to 8.500km/h is physically possible without using rockets. That's the speed of the fastest missile.
- mrhyyyyde 5y agoThe X-15 has recorded 7,274 km/h airspeeds. I'm no airspeed record expert but did some reading.
- mcguire 5y agoExactly. That would be the point.
- chki 5y agoBut I would claim that nobody has ever said "flight times from London to Sydney will go down to 2-3 hours in 10 years". Si the above example does not really make sense.
- gadders 5y agoOh look: https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/flights-uk-australia-four-hours-hypersonic-jet-reaction-engines-a9119521.html https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/flights... "FLIGHTS FROM UK-AUSTRALIA COULD TAKE JUST FOUR HOURS BY 2030"
- gadders 5y agoI mis-spoke. 4.5 hours: "U.K.-based Reaction Engines is developing technology for Synergetic Air-Breathing Rocket Engines (SABRE), which could one day allow aircraft to fly up to five times faster than the speed of sound — that’s Mach 5 or 3,836 miles per hour. At that speed, hypersonic flights between London and Australia could be over in just four-and-a-half hours." https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/08/hypersonic-flight-technology-passes-a-hugely-significant-milestone.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/08/hypersonic-flight-technology...
- tsimionescu 5y agoI really don't understand your list. Are you trying to lump QCs in with pseudo-science gobbledygook like cold fusion or Musk's surface to surface starship rides?
- bawolff 5y agoIs anyone (not selling snake oil) claiming that large scale QC is actully only 10 years away? I certainly havent heard that.
- reikonomusha 5y agoGoogle just announced they plan to have a million qubits in less than 10 years. They’ve not yet demonstrated the ability to go past 100.
- Hedgemaster 5y agowell, Google's CEO also made a furore by stating that in 10 years quantum computer would break currently used encryption.. But guess what? In 10 years Sundar won't be with the company anyway ;)
- krastanov 5y agoI work in this field, and I would say anything between 20% and 70% percent of my colleagues believe that useful error corrected qubits will exist in less than 10 years (depending on what exactly you ask). So I guess the answer is yes, there are respected scientists that would wager that we will have enough useful qubits for interesting chemistry simulations in 10 years.