4 ms·

We are beginning to see the real costs of Global warming, the exact thing activists were bull horning about and the same thing corporations were denying.

mikewarot 5y ago
Mostly we're seeing the costs of not managing forest in a sustainable manner. But, yes, climate change is making that stupidity worse.
- shusaku 5y ago
  The costs of not managing forests well, the costs of building cities so close to the ocean, the cost of growing food in what is now a desert, the cost of having population centers in areas which reach 50 degrees in the summer, global warming is going to “uncover” quite a lot of costs.
  - loopz 5y ago
    Not to mention warming and acidication of the oceans: https://www.quora.com/When-will-the-world-s-oceans-lose-their-ability-to-absorb-carbon-dioxide-and-what-will-be-the-consequences?share=1 https://www.quora.com/When-will-the-world-s-oceans-lose-thei... https://www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/ocean-coasts/ocean-acidification https://www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/ocean-co... https://knowledge.insead.edu/blog/insead-blog/the-ocean-cannot-absorb-much-more-co2-4990 https://knowledge.insead.edu/blog/insead-blog/the-ocean-cann...
nickysielicki 5y ago
https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/IF10244.pdf https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/IF10244.pdf https://www.fs.fed.us/psw/publications/mckelvey/mckelvey3.pdf https://www.fs.fed.us/psw/publications/mckelvey/mckelvey3.pd... Look at figure 41.2 in the second pdf. Wildfires are not historically worse than they have ever been. You're falling victim to recency bias. You can absolutely credibly claim that wildfires are not more or less common than they have been historically, it's all in the noise. The activists have not been proven right, and the corporations have not been proven wrong. edit: note that I'm not denying the existence of climate change nor denying that it may eventually have an effect on forest fires. I'm merely claiming that the data does not support what you're saying.
- kumarvvr 5y ago
  Even a cursory reading of both the documents that you present shows the following points. 1. While the number of fires have reduced, the total area consumed by fires is still rising. 2. The average area fired up is increasing at an alarming rate (Fig. 41.3, still upto 2000 only.) Refer the first document. Fig. I, the trend in forest fire area affected is increasing, from about 2 million acres in 1990 to about 10 million acres in 2020. Also, fig 41.2 is data from 1908 to 1988. Edit : Please see the 10 million acre figure in the first PDF. Think of the enormous costs related to containing the fire. The data is not in isolation. Fire-fighting techniques and costs have to be taken into account. https://www.fs.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2015-Fire-Budget-Report.pdf https://www.fs.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2015-Fire-Budget... This document from US govt explains how much they are spending fighting forest fires. Budget for wildfire management rose from 15% in 1995 to about 52% in 2015, with more increase projected upto 2025. Also, the cost of wildfires is enormous. https://www.nfpa.org/News-and-Research/Publications-and-media/NFPA-Journal/2020/November-December-2020/Features/Wildfire https://www.nfpa.org/News-and-Research/Publications-and-medi...
- boulos 5y ago
  I’m going to assume good faith, but Figure 41.2 only has data through 1992 (the paper is from 1995). 30-ish years of hotter, drier seasons might change that picture. In fact, Figure 1 in your first pdf says just that: the “count” of fires is similar to that in 1991, but the area burned has more than tripled. That is what people are talking about: the past few years have had mega fires and “complex fires”.
- wonnage 5y ago
  On top of the other responses, I don't think the two sources use comparable data to begin with. The first source says that there were ~2m acres burned in both of 1991 and 1992, whereas the latter peaks at 100 k/ha, which converts to about 240k acres, nowhere near 2m.
  - kumarvvr 5y ago
    The second document is only related to forest service. Does not include other types of lands.
dang 5y ago
"Eschew flamebait. Avoid generic tangents." https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

mikewarot 5y ago

Mostly we're seeing the costs of not managing forest in a sustainable manner. But, yes, climate change is making that stupidity worse.

shusaku 5y ago
The costs of not managing forests well, the costs of building cities so close to the ocean, the cost of growing food in what is now a desert, the cost of having population centers in areas which reach 50 degrees in the summer, global warming is going to “uncover” quite a lot of costs.
- loopz 5y ago
  Not to mention warming and acidication of the oceans: https://www.quora.com/When-will-the-world-s-oceans-lose-their-ability-to-absorb-carbon-dioxide-and-what-will-be-the-consequences?share=1 https://www.quora.com/When-will-the-world-s-oceans-lose-thei... https://www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/ocean-coasts/ocean-acidification https://www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/ocean-co... https://knowledge.insead.edu/blog/insead-blog/the-ocean-cannot-absorb-much-more-co2-4990 https://knowledge.insead.edu/blog/insead-blog/the-ocean-cann...

nickysielicki 5y ago

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/IF10244.pdf https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/IF10244.pdf https://www.fs.fed.us/psw/publications/mckelvey/mckelvey3.pdf https://www.fs.fed.us/psw/publications/mckelvey/mckelvey3.pd... Look at figure 41.2 in the second pdf. Wildfires are not historically worse than they have ever been. You're falling victim to recency bias. You can absolutely credibly claim that wildfires are not more or less common than they have been historically, it's all in the noise. The activists have not been proven right, and the corporations have not been proven wrong. edit: note that I'm not denying the existence of climate change nor denying that it may eventually have an effect on forest fires. I'm merely claiming that the data does not support what you're saying.

kumarvvr 5y ago
Even a cursory reading of both the documents that you present shows the following points. 1. While the number of fires have reduced, the total area consumed by fires is still rising. 2. The average area fired up is increasing at an alarming rate (Fig. 41.3, still upto 2000 only.) Refer the first document. Fig. I, the trend in forest fire area affected is increasing, from about 2 million acres in 1990 to about 10 million acres in 2020. Also, fig 41.2 is data from 1908 to 1988. Edit : Please see the 10 million acre figure in the first PDF. Think of the enormous costs related to containing the fire. The data is not in isolation. Fire-fighting techniques and costs have to be taken into account. https://www.fs.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2015-Fire-Budget-Report.pdf https://www.fs.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2015-Fire-Budget... This document from US govt explains how much they are spending fighting forest fires. Budget for wildfire management rose from 15% in 1995 to about 52% in 2015, with more increase projected upto 2025. Also, the cost of wildfires is enormous. https://www.nfpa.org/News-and-Research/Publications-and-media/NFPA-Journal/2020/November-December-2020/Features/Wildfire https://www.nfpa.org/News-and-Research/Publications-and-medi...
boulos 5y ago
I’m going to assume good faith, but Figure 41.2 only has data through 1992 (the paper is from 1995). 30-ish years of hotter, drier seasons might change that picture. In fact, Figure 1 in your first pdf says just that: the “count” of fires is similar to that in 1991, but the area burned has more than tripled. That is what people are talking about: the past few years have had mega fires and “complex fires”.
wonnage 5y ago
On top of the other responses, I don't think the two sources use comparable data to begin with. The first source says that there were ~2m acres burned in both of 1991 and 1992, whereas the latter peaks at 100 k/ha, which converts to about 240k acres, nowhere near 2m.
- kumarvvr 5y ago
  The second document is only related to forest service. Does not include other types of lands.

dang 5y ago

"Eschew flamebait. Avoid generic tangents." https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html