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While I don’t doubt that the actual deaths from covid is far higher than what’s officially reported, I find the attempts to come up with a multiplier amusing. I

While I don’t doubt that the actual deaths from covid is far higher than what’s officially reported, I find the attempts to come up with a multiplier amusing. India has never had high quality data to use as a baseline, even those reported from cities. Besides as others have pointed out, the actual cause of death reported isn’t necessarily accurate either. Which is why we see “studies” predicting the actual number to be anywhere from 3x to 10x.

srean 5y ago
Not having causes of death reported, or rather purposely obfuscated, is precisely the value of these excess-over-baseline mortality studies. The science and maths of these things are quite well understood and one can give Bayesian credible bounds, or frequentist prediction interval bounds for these quantities. I also have no doubt that those close to the government will no doubt try everything possible to deny, dispute and discredit these numbers because it does not show a pretty picture.
grecy 5y ago
What you're saying doesn't make any logical sense. We have data of how many people died (from all causes) for every year from around 1960 to now, getting more accurate as time went on. Certainly for 2000 until now the numbers are very dependable. We can graph it, see abnormalities, and have very accurate estimates of how many people are expected to die next year in any given country. Suddenly, for the first time in many, many decades, the estimates from 2019 about 2020 were wildly low. In virtually every country in the world more people died than would have ever been predicted, and suddenly decades and decades of accurate estimations are out the window. Again in 2021 the deaths are way up. How can you possibly explain so many "extra" or "unpredictable" deaths after decades of numbers that perfectly matched estimates based on previous years?
- eldaisfish 5y ago
  I don't think you understand how unreliable or easily fudged indian data is. Just during the pandemic, there are good reports of individual indian cities reporting more COVID infections than entire states with the population of a Germany or Brazil. https://www.newslaundry.com/2021/07/16/chintan-patel-vivek-kaul-covid-big-data-investigation-second-wave https://www.newslaundry.com/2021/07/16/chintan-patel-vivek-k... Indian data on deaths is so bad that deaths not being registered is par for the course. Your entire comment is built on the flawed assumption that data from dysfunctional countries like India is directly comparable to data from the west. It is not. A single death going unrecorded is highly unusual in the west. In India, not only do most indians die outside the hospital system but between 2 - 7 % of deaths are simply not recorded.
  - srean 5y ago
    Not fudged, deliberately and actively obfuscated, if we are talking Covid numbers. This is so that the enormity of the government does not come in the public domain. Their measures include instructing cremation places to record cause of death just as 'bimari' (Hindi for disease) and refrain from mentioning Covid, removing of shrouds over graves so that the otherwise unmarked thousands of shallow graves on riverine sandbars do not get counted by drone photography. There is good faith incompetence and then there is deliberate cover up. The government and their fanboys when describing government's purported achievements -- you are antinational, unpatriotic, treasonous to doubt our reliable data collected by our upstanding officials and members, you should go to Pakistan. Same government when questioned on Covid -- quality of data is very poor I reject all conclusions that do not show us in good light. @eldaisfish I hope you are aware that the story that you have linked to points towards the rampant undercounting bias. The bias will only lead to gross undercounting of the deaths.
    - fakedang 5y ago
      Can you give me proof of the two government measures that you quoted? I'm honestly shocked although at this point I know it's on par for this (or any) Indian govt.
      - srean 5y ago
        I can certainly show you enough video evidence, whether these are admissible in a court I am not sure. Most of the reporting is in local language, Hindi. Here is one such video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZiLzIuMsnW0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZiLzIuMsnW0 For those who cannot follow Hindi, what you see here is that the government is removing the burial shrouds over these shallow graves (thousands upon thousands) so that they cannot be counted from areal photography. For some context https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALO0VjfxXDA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALO0VjfxXDA (pardon the annoying and dramatic music) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DWWeOt4jWM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DWWeOt4jWM https://youtu.be/6iJPX6cYdPk?t=30 https://youtu.be/6iJPX6cYdPk?t=30 Let me find something in English to give context on these shallow graves https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Q6hYu3EsC0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Q6hYu3EsC0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JeeJXjv5nsI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JeeJXjv5nsI For the 'bimari' thing, Shekhar Gupta a reputed Indian journalist covered that on his YouTube channel. Since I dont bookmark any of these, the links are little hard to find again. You can give it a shot by searching youtube and ThePrint. If I find time I can add a few other links that show the same. UP government (a state that's run by the ruling party) was arresting and slapping terror charges (that allow holding the accused in jail indefinitely without trial) on those who were turning to social media to arrange oxygen cylinders for themselves or for their near relatives. The state government wanted to suppress the scale of their failure. In this particular case, the Supreme Court thankfully intervened and threatened the state contempt of court proceedings if anyone is charged according to these terror laws for asking for help on social media. You should have no trouble finding sources for this.

srean 5y ago

Not having causes of death reported, or rather purposely obfuscated, is precisely the value of these excess-over-baseline mortality studies. The science and maths of these things are quite well understood and one can give Bayesian credible bounds, or frequentist prediction interval bounds for these quantities. I also have no doubt that those close to the government will no doubt try everything possible to deny, dispute and discredit these numbers because it does not show a pretty picture.

grecy 5y ago

What you're saying doesn't make any logical sense. We have data of how many people died (from all causes) for every year from around 1960 to now, getting more accurate as time went on. Certainly for 2000 until now the numbers are very dependable. We can graph it, see abnormalities, and have very accurate estimates of how many people are expected to die next year in any given country. Suddenly, for the first time in many, many decades, the estimates from 2019 about 2020 were wildly low. In virtually every country in the world more people died than would have ever been predicted, and suddenly decades and decades of accurate estimations are out the window. Again in 2021 the deaths are way up. How can you possibly explain so many "extra" or "unpredictable" deaths after decades of numbers that perfectly matched estimates based on previous years?

eldaisfish 5y ago
I don't think you understand how unreliable or easily fudged indian data is. Just during the pandemic, there are good reports of individual indian cities reporting more COVID infections than entire states with the population of a Germany or Brazil. https://www.newslaundry.com/2021/07/16/chintan-patel-vivek-kaul-covid-big-data-investigation-second-wave https://www.newslaundry.com/2021/07/16/chintan-patel-vivek-k... Indian data on deaths is so bad that deaths not being registered is par for the course. Your entire comment is built on the flawed assumption that data from dysfunctional countries like India is directly comparable to data from the west. It is not. A single death going unrecorded is highly unusual in the west. In India, not only do most indians die outside the hospital system but between 2 - 7 % of deaths are simply not recorded.
- srean 5y ago
  Not fudged, deliberately and actively obfuscated, if we are talking Covid numbers. This is so that the enormity of the government does not come in the public domain. Their measures include instructing cremation places to record cause of death just as 'bimari' (Hindi for disease) and refrain from mentioning Covid, removing of shrouds over graves so that the otherwise unmarked thousands of shallow graves on riverine sandbars do not get counted by drone photography. There is good faith incompetence and then there is deliberate cover up. The government and their fanboys when describing government's purported achievements -- you are antinational, unpatriotic, treasonous to doubt our reliable data collected by our upstanding officials and members, you should go to Pakistan. Same government when questioned on Covid -- quality of data is very poor I reject all conclusions that do not show us in good light. @eldaisfish I hope you are aware that the story that you have linked to points towards the rampant undercounting bias. The bias will only lead to gross undercounting of the deaths.
  - fakedang 5y ago
    Can you give me proof of the two government measures that you quoted? I'm honestly shocked although at this point I know it's on par for this (or any) Indian govt.
    - srean 5y ago
      I can certainly show you enough video evidence, whether these are admissible in a court I am not sure. Most of the reporting is in local language, Hindi. Here is one such video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZiLzIuMsnW0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZiLzIuMsnW0 For those who cannot follow Hindi, what you see here is that the government is removing the burial shrouds over these shallow graves (thousands upon thousands) so that they cannot be counted from areal photography. For some context https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALO0VjfxXDA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALO0VjfxXDA (pardon the annoying and dramatic music) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DWWeOt4jWM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DWWeOt4jWM https://youtu.be/6iJPX6cYdPk?t=30 https://youtu.be/6iJPX6cYdPk?t=30 Let me find something in English to give context on these shallow graves https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Q6hYu3EsC0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Q6hYu3EsC0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JeeJXjv5nsI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JeeJXjv5nsI For the 'bimari' thing, Shekhar Gupta a reputed Indian journalist covered that on his YouTube channel. Since I dont bookmark any of these, the links are little hard to find again. You can give it a shot by searching youtube and ThePrint. If I find time I can add a few other links that show the same. UP government (a state that's run by the ruling party) was arresting and slapping terror charges (that allow holding the accused in jail indefinitely without trial) on those who were turning to social media to arrange oxygen cylinders for themselves or for their near relatives. The state government wanted to suppress the scale of their failure. In this particular case, the Supreme Court thankfully intervened and threatened the state contempt of court proceedings if anyone is charged according to these terror laws for asking for help on social media. You should have no trouble finding sources for this.