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Excess deaths may come from the restrictions that were placed upon businesses, not from COVID itself. Especially in a place with many food-insecure people like

Excess deaths may come from the restrictions that were placed upon businesses, not from COVID itself. Especially in a place with many food-insecure people like India. Edit: since people downvote anything that goes against their narrative, here’s a link. > “For eight days, there was not a single grain in our house to eat and my sister became very weak during this time,” reflects Pooja Kumari, 15. > “We were all worried about her deteriorating condition but due to our lack of money, we could neither feed her or get her treated at any nearby hospital.” https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/first-coronavirus-now-starvation-hunger-stalks-millions-indians/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-diseas...

cunthorpe 5y ago
I don't doubt death from starvation is a possibility, but probably not the majority cause.
- baybal2 5y ago
  > I don't doubt death from starvation is a possibility, but probably not the majority cause. There is quite a possibility it is.
  - laumars 5y ago
    A lot of the remoter and poor regions grow their own crops. What they lack is - education (understanding how to slow the spread the virus with many not even wearing a mask when looking after family members who are ill) - money (to pay for any medical care needed to treat COVID victims) And in the poorer but non-remote areas you have population density and hygiene issues. I’m not saying there aren’t going to be cases where famine is an issue. But it’s certainly not the majority killer — COVID is an effective enough killer on its own if it’s not handled carefully.
    - baybal2 5y ago
      India is much less of an agricultural economy than how it appears to people in the West. People may be living in villages, but fully reliant on city jobs for income to feed themselves. I doubt even a distant relative will lend a hand to a starving person in India. The society is extremely stratified. People just a step away on the income ladder live completely separate lives.
      - laumars 5y ago
        I’m not talking about farmland. I’m talking about the basics like having a few trees that grow fruit. Yes it’s not much, but it can be the difference between life and death when you’re talking about starvation.
        baybal2 5y ago
        Most people in villages do not own any land, not even an inch of it to plant a single tree.
        laumars 5y ago
        I didn’t say “people”, I said “regions”. Indians generally have a large and collaborative communities, which is a concept totally alien to many westerners who don’t even talk to their neighbours. This is also part of the reason COVID is so rampant there. And yes, I’m aware I’ve now reduced the discussion down to massive generalisations about a massive country with a diverse populous and I’m sorry. Obviously there will be a great many counter examples that disproves my point. But from the perspective of my friends and family who have other friends and family in poorer regions of India (and I do mean poorer by Indian standards not poorer but ours but relatively rich by Indians) what I’ve said is fair and accurate. Im sure what you’ve said is also true by virtue of the size of the country.
      - aww_dang 5y ago
        Also remittances from abroad.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- leereeves 5y ago
  > I don't doubt death from starvation is a possibility, but probably not the majority cause. "Probably"? Is that pure speculation or are you basing it on something? A year ago Oxfam predicted "By the end of the year 12,000 people per day [worldwide] could die from hunger linked to COVID-19." https://archive.ph/zsYXy#selection-785.127-785.212 https://archive.ph/zsYXy#selection-785.127-785.212
- ceilingcorner 5y ago
  Starvation, depression, lack of medical care, lack of future economic prospects, etc. are only a few possible causes.
  - bamboozled 5y ago
    Not to mention just general comfort, if it's 38c and you have a high fever, it's pretty hard to deal with as apposed to sitting in and air conditioned building in a nice bed.
    - nicoburns 5y ago
      I imagine high air temperature would be beneficial for these with fever. You get hot for a reason. Artificially cooling yourself will not help.
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
      - pbak 5y ago
        You are not a freezer. Your basal metabolism doesn't switch off as if it had a thermostat. So no, it's not a beneficial, it compounds, and you die faster.
        nicoburns 5y ago
        I guess it depends how hot. But you're probably right that India goes above the point that it helpful.
        Aboh33 5y ago
        In the past, when I had certain fevers I would go into a dry sauna or steam and it helped but I think it depends on the type of fever though.
        pbak 5y ago
- ben_w 5y ago
  I don’t have reason to be confident about any particular percentage. In 2019, 7.7% of the Indian population had incomes lower than $1.9 PPP. A literally undocumented homeless person in Berlin could make more by collecting forgotten drinks bottles and claiming the deposit for recycling them (this is an actual thing that happens: I’ve had beggars asking for my empty bottles since I came here). 7.7% of India in 2019 is ~105 million, so if 4% of the poorest people in India starved as a side-effect of the pandemic, that’s still 4 million excess deaths. I would be willing to believe 4 million deaths caused by any of bad harvests, loss of labour opportunities due to economic slow-downs in other countries, COVID directly, the response to COVID, or by diseases that developed economies would consider minor and easily remedied.
detaro 5y ago
"may not be from COVID itself" is already clearly stated in the article.
- ceilingcorner 5y ago
  Right, and the headline surely isn’t designed to make you think it’s from COVID...
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - detaro 5y ago
    It's from the pandemic, excess death and "people are dying because they didn't get medical care for other things" has been a regular talking point, ... At least on HN, commenting on just some snap impression from the headline shouldn't quite cut it, commenting things the article already covers, and a large previous subthread already covers, doesn't really tell us anything new.
    - ceilingcorner 5y ago
      No, they may not be “from the pandemic”, they may be from the actions taken in response to the pandemic. These aren’t the same things.
      - detaro 5y ago
        Matter of perspective I guess. Deaths directly from COVID also depend on the actions taken in response to the pandemic, so in both cases they are (potentially avoidable) consequences of the pandemic and societies reaction to it.
        ceilingcorner 5y ago
        No other cause of death is reported this way.
        5y ago
srean 5y ago
Covid would still be implicated in that case, because its the Covid lockdowns that would have disrupted that. This is a counterfactual analysis with and without Covid, that certainly does not rule out indirect ways that Covid could have increased mortality. If anyone reads this without taking that into consideration, that's either dumb or agenda motivated, very likely both. Its fairly straightforward. The number of deaths under a given circumstance have its natural uncertainty and fluctuation that's captured by its statistical variance. One compares the recorded deaths during Covid period against the typical number of deaths during a comparable situation, account for the natural fluctuation, what remains is the excess death that cannot be explained by natural fluctuation of these numbers. With presence of Covid being the significant way in which the scenarios are different, it can be claimed with statistical accuracy which are the excess deaths that happened as a result of Covid, either directly or because of other factors influenced by Covid (Oxygen shortage being one such example). That said, those close to the government and its agenda will leave no stone unturned to dispute and discredit this study. As long that's an informed, good faith and rational argument I dont mind at all. I do have serious doubts on whether majority of the disputing and discrediting will be based on good faith. Ah! downvotes. Why am I not surprised.

cunthorpe 5y ago

I don't doubt death from starvation is a possibility, but probably not the majority cause.

baybal2 5y ago
> I don't doubt death from starvation is a possibility, but probably not the majority cause. There is quite a possibility it is.
- laumars 5y ago
  A lot of the remoter and poor regions grow their own crops. What they lack is - education (understanding how to slow the spread the virus with many not even wearing a mask when looking after family members who are ill) - money (to pay for any medical care needed to treat COVID victims) And in the poorer but non-remote areas you have population density and hygiene issues. I’m not saying there aren’t going to be cases where famine is an issue. But it’s certainly not the majority killer — COVID is an effective enough killer on its own if it’s not handled carefully.
  - baybal2 5y ago
    India is much less of an agricultural economy than how it appears to people in the West. People may be living in villages, but fully reliant on city jobs for income to feed themselves. I doubt even a distant relative will lend a hand to a starving person in India. The society is extremely stratified. People just a step away on the income ladder live completely separate lives.
    - laumars 5y ago
      I’m not talking about farmland. I’m talking about the basics like having a few trees that grow fruit. Yes it’s not much, but it can be the difference between life and death when you’re talking about starvation.
      - baybal2 5y ago
        Most people in villages do not own any land, not even an inch of it to plant a single tree.
        laumars 5y ago
        I didn’t say “people”, I said “regions”. Indians generally have a large and collaborative communities, which is a concept totally alien to many westerners who don’t even talk to their neighbours. This is also part of the reason COVID is so rampant there. And yes, I’m aware I’ve now reduced the discussion down to massive generalisations about a massive country with a diverse populous and I’m sorry. Obviously there will be a great many counter examples that disproves my point. But from the perspective of my friends and family who have other friends and family in poorer regions of India (and I do mean poorer by Indian standards not poorer but ours but relatively rich by Indians) what I’ve said is fair and accurate. Im sure what you’ve said is also true by virtue of the size of the country.
    - aww_dang 5y ago
      Also remittances from abroad.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
leereeves 5y ago
> I don't doubt death from starvation is a possibility, but probably not the majority cause. "Probably"? Is that pure speculation or are you basing it on something? A year ago Oxfam predicted "By the end of the year 12,000 people per day [worldwide] could die from hunger linked to COVID-19." https://archive.ph/zsYXy#selection-785.127-785.212 https://archive.ph/zsYXy#selection-785.127-785.212
ceilingcorner 5y ago
Starvation, depression, lack of medical care, lack of future economic prospects, etc. are only a few possible causes.
- bamboozled 5y ago
  Not to mention just general comfort, if it's 38c and you have a high fever, it's pretty hard to deal with as apposed to sitting in and air conditioned building in a nice bed.
  - nicoburns 5y ago
    I imagine high air temperature would be beneficial for these with fever. You get hot for a reason. Artificially cooling yourself will not help.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - pbak 5y ago
      You are not a freezer. Your basal metabolism doesn't switch off as if it had a thermostat. So no, it's not a beneficial, it compounds, and you die faster.
      - nicoburns 5y ago
        I guess it depends how hot. But you're probably right that India goes above the point that it helpful.
      - Aboh33 5y ago
        In the past, when I had certain fevers I would go into a dry sauna or steam and it helped but I think it depends on the type of fever though.
        pbak 5y ago
ben_w 5y ago
I don’t have reason to be confident about any particular percentage. In 2019, 7.7% of the Indian population had incomes lower than $1.9 PPP. A literally undocumented homeless person in Berlin could make more by collecting forgotten drinks bottles and claiming the deposit for recycling them (this is an actual thing that happens: I’ve had beggars asking for my empty bottles since I came here). 7.7% of India in 2019 is ~105 million, so if 4% of the poorest people in India starved as a side-effect of the pandemic, that’s still 4 million excess deaths. I would be willing to believe 4 million deaths caused by any of bad harvests, loss of labour opportunities due to economic slow-downs in other countries, COVID directly, the response to COVID, or by diseases that developed economies would consider minor and easily remedied.

detaro 5y ago

"may not be from COVID itself" is already clearly stated in the article.

ceilingcorner 5y ago
Right, and the headline surely isn’t designed to make you think it’s from COVID...
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- detaro 5y ago
  It's from the pandemic, excess death and "people are dying because they didn't get medical care for other things" has been a regular talking point, ... At least on HN, commenting on just some snap impression from the headline shouldn't quite cut it, commenting things the article already covers, and a large previous subthread already covers, doesn't really tell us anything new.
  - ceilingcorner 5y ago
    No, they may not be “from the pandemic”, they may be from the actions taken in response to the pandemic. These aren’t the same things.
    - detaro 5y ago
      Matter of perspective I guess. Deaths directly from COVID also depend on the actions taken in response to the pandemic, so in both cases they are (potentially avoidable) consequences of the pandemic and societies reaction to it.
      - ceilingcorner 5y ago
        No other cause of death is reported this way.
      - 5y ago

srean 5y ago

Covid would still be implicated in that case, because its the Covid lockdowns that would have disrupted that. This is a counterfactual analysis with and without Covid, that certainly does not rule out indirect ways that Covid could have increased mortality. If anyone reads this without taking that into consideration, that's either dumb or agenda motivated, very likely both. Its fairly straightforward. The number of deaths under a given circumstance have its natural uncertainty and fluctuation that's captured by its statistical variance. One compares the recorded deaths during Covid period against the typical number of deaths during a comparable situation, account for the natural fluctuation, what remains is the excess death that cannot be explained by natural fluctuation of these numbers. With presence of Covid being the significant way in which the scenarios are different, it can be claimed with statistical accuracy which are the excess deaths that happened as a result of Covid, either directly or because of other factors influenced by Covid (Oxygen shortage being one such example). That said, those close to the government and its agenda will leave no stone unturned to dispute and discredit this study. As long that's an informed, good faith and rational argument I dont mind at all. I do have serious doubts on whether majority of the disputing and discrediting will be based on good faith. Ah! downvotes. Why am I not surprised.