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An order-of-magnitude means "about 10." In contexts, it's a way of expressing uncertainty. If I say "About a hundred, but I might be off by an order-of-magnitu
by gibba999 5y ago
An order-of-magnitude means "about 10."
In contexts, it's a way of expressing uncertainty. If I say "About a hundred, but I might be off by an order-of-magnitude," that means "probably between ten and a thousand, perhaps even as low as 5 or as high as 2000"
In the same context, if I say "I'm might be low by an order-of-magnitude," that means "between 100 and 2000"
Bringing that back to a number is nonsense.
- TheFreim 5y agoConversations aren't the same as written articles. In a study or article you expect a proper and more precise use of language, hence the 4 million.
- gibba999 5y agoThe entire point of language like "order-of-magnitude" in an article is to convey uncertainty, and that you're sure at the level of the log of the number. Error bars are important. A different poster pointed out other language in the article which DID estimate 4 million deaths more precisely, but that level of imprecision is exactly what scientists and engineers mean by "order-of-magnitude." It's common for press to take a result with huge error bars, and to condense it to a number.