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BS headlines everywhere. Straight from the study: https://cgdev.org/publication/three-new-estimates-indias-all-cause-excess-mortality-during-covid-19-pandemic

by ngc248 5y ago

BS headlines everywhere. Straight from the study: https://cgdev.org/publication/three-new-estimates-indias-all-cause-excess-mortality-during-covid-19-pandemic https://cgdev.org/publication/three-new-estimates-indias-all... "Estimating COVID-deaths with statistical confidence may prove elusive. But all estimates suggest that the death toll from the pandemic is likely to be an order of magnitude greater than the official count of 400,000;" But no one is adding this disclaimer, everyone is just parroting the 4 million number. Another thing to ponder, if this amount of people had died, do foreigners really think Indian people would have sat silently? There may be underreporting or missing stats, but I doubt if it is a 10x difference.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
spiffistan 5y ago
An order of magnitude above 400000 is 4 million.
- gibba999 5y ago
  3 million and 5 million are also an order-of-magnitude above 400,000, as are quite a few other numbers.
  - shrikant 5y ago
    OP has conveniently left out a few lines just before their quoted bit: > We report excess mortality estimates from three different data sources from the pandemic’s start through June 2021. First, extrapolation of state-level civil registration from seven states suggests 3.4 million excess deaths. Second, applying international estimates of age-specific infection fatality rates (IFR) to Indian seroprevalence data implies a higher toll of around 4 million. Third, our analysis of the Consumer Pyramid Household Survey, a longitudinal panel of over 800,000 individuals across all states, yields an estimate of 4.9 million excess deaths. If their (or your) complaint is with these actual methods of estimation, then pick on those, but the assumption that the study authors just want to Jedi mind-trick you into 10x'ing the official Covid deaths number is flawed.
TheFreim 5y ago
> an order of magnitude greater than the official count of 400,000 Wikipedia: > An order of magnitude is an approximation of the logarithm of a value relative to some contextually understood reference value, usually ten... An order of magnitude seems to usually mean something at least multiplied by 10. 400,000 times 10 is 4 million.
- gibba999 5y ago
  An order-of-magnitude means "about 10." In contexts, it's a way of expressing uncertainty. If I say "About a hundred, but I might be off by an order-of-magnitude," that means "probably between ten and a thousand, perhaps even as low as 5 or as high as 2000" In the same context, if I say "I'm might be low by an order-of-magnitude," that means "between 100 and 2000" Bringing that back to a number is nonsense.
  - TheFreim 5y ago
    Conversations aren't the same as written articles. In a study or article you expect a proper and more precise use of language, hence the 4 million.
    - gibba999 5y ago
      The entire point of language like "order-of-magnitude" in an article is to convey uncertainty, and that you're sure at the level of the log of the number. Error bars are important. A different poster pointed out other language in the article which DID estimate 4 million deaths more precisely, but that level of imprecision is exactly what scientists and engineers mean by "order-of-magnitude." It's common for press to take a result with huge error bars, and to condense it to a number.
deleted 5y ago
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pjc50 5y ago
> if this amount of people had died, do foreigners really think Indian people would have sat silently Yes? I mean, the UK has had 129k deaths and the government's approval rating remains leading the opinion polls of voting attention. The statistical deaths of strangers just don't move the needle in politics.
- ngc248 5y ago
  In India, you have the opposition party and then lots of regional parties which are in power in state governments. These parties would never sit silent if the numbers were like this, since they could have used it politically, or people from all parties should be in on the game, which I can't believe.
  - baybal2 5y ago
    They don't sit silently at all, but Modi's phenomenal approval ratings barelly took a hit for things which would've been a political suicide to any politician in the West.
    - srean 5y ago
      Modi's approval rating has taken quite a hit recently though. Your point still stands. Even after the hit in ratings those would be the envy of many.
monkey_monkey 5y ago
> do foreigners really think Indian people would have sat silently? Most of my Indian relatives and family (who all live in India) find this 10x under-reporting very plausible.
hesarenu 5y ago
Its seems like any statistical data from India be like na no good. Lets multiple it by 10x. Not per our liking lets mutiple by 100x.
- srean 5y ago
  The government and the ruling party when questioned on Covid -- how dare you ask questions based on numbers they are very inaccurate and terrible in case we collected them, mostly we didnt and we have no data. The same government and the ruling party on their claimed achievements -- how dare you question our rock solid reliable numbers. You must be a traitor, unpatriotic, anti-national, tukde-tukde-gang-urban-naxal-protest-jeevi, why dont you go to Pakistan. For amusement (not exactly sure why those close to the ruling party is so focused on increasing tourism in Pakistan. I wish they paid as much attention to Indian concerns): https://www.google.com/search?q=BJP+go+to+Pakistan https://www.google.com/search?q=BJP+go+to+Pakistan
  - hesarenu 5y ago
    Hinduphobic guy does not like current Govt. What are the odds!!
    - dang 5y ago
      We've asked you before not to post like this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25985903 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25985903. If you do it again we will have to ban you. Religious and nationalistic flamewar is not welcome on HN, and doubly so in the form of cheap drive-by comments. No more of this, please. Edit: it was even the same user you were flaming. This is seriously not cool.
      - hesarenu 5y ago
        That what happens if you let tolerate those kind of comments. Stupid false blatant false info are upvoted. If you try to answer civilly then you are donwvoted. I could have left it, but choose to indulge. You can ban me, anyway that would stop me getting involved in these petty situations. I don't anyway contribute much, just here for some tech news. btw you implied i would be banned, but not the other user. What makes me special?

by ngc248 5y ago

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

spiffistan 5y ago

An order of magnitude above 400000 is 4 million.

gibba999 5y ago
3 million and 5 million are also an order-of-magnitude above 400,000, as are quite a few other numbers.
- shrikant 5y ago
  OP has conveniently left out a few lines just before their quoted bit: > We report excess mortality estimates from three different data sources from the pandemic’s start through June 2021. First, extrapolation of state-level civil registration from seven states suggests 3.4 million excess deaths. Second, applying international estimates of age-specific infection fatality rates (IFR) to Indian seroprevalence data implies a higher toll of around 4 million. Third, our analysis of the Consumer Pyramid Household Survey, a longitudinal panel of over 800,000 individuals across all states, yields an estimate of 4.9 million excess deaths. If their (or your) complaint is with these actual methods of estimation, then pick on those, but the assumption that the study authors just want to Jedi mind-trick you into 10x'ing the official Covid deaths number is flawed.

TheFreim 5y ago

> an order of magnitude greater than the official count of 400,000 Wikipedia: > An order of magnitude is an approximation of the logarithm of a value relative to some contextually understood reference value, usually ten... An order of magnitude seems to usually mean something at least multiplied by 10. 400,000 times 10 is 4 million.

gibba999 5y ago
An order-of-magnitude means "about 10." In contexts, it's a way of expressing uncertainty. If I say "About a hundred, but I might be off by an order-of-magnitude," that means "probably between ten and a thousand, perhaps even as low as 5 or as high as 2000" In the same context, if I say "I'm might be low by an order-of-magnitude," that means "between 100 and 2000" Bringing that back to a number is nonsense.
- TheFreim 5y ago
  Conversations aren't the same as written articles. In a study or article you expect a proper and more precise use of language, hence the 4 million.
  - gibba999 5y ago
    The entire point of language like "order-of-magnitude" in an article is to convey uncertainty, and that you're sure at the level of the log of the number. Error bars are important. A different poster pointed out other language in the article which DID estimate 4 million deaths more precisely, but that level of imprecision is exactly what scientists and engineers mean by "order-of-magnitude." It's common for press to take a result with huge error bars, and to condense it to a number.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

pjc50 5y ago

> if this amount of people had died, do foreigners really think Indian people would have sat silently Yes? I mean, the UK has had 129k deaths and the government's approval rating remains leading the opinion polls of voting attention. The statistical deaths of strangers just don't move the needle in politics.

ngc248 5y ago
In India, you have the opposition party and then lots of regional parties which are in power in state governments. These parties would never sit silent if the numbers were like this, since they could have used it politically, or people from all parties should be in on the game, which I can't believe.
- baybal2 5y ago
  They don't sit silently at all, but Modi's phenomenal approval ratings barelly took a hit for things which would've been a political suicide to any politician in the West.
  - srean 5y ago
    Modi's approval rating has taken quite a hit recently though. Your point still stands. Even after the hit in ratings those would be the envy of many.

monkey_monkey 5y ago

> do foreigners really think Indian people would have sat silently? Most of my Indian relatives and family (who all live in India) find this 10x under-reporting very plausible.

hesarenu 5y ago

Its seems like any statistical data from India be like na no good. Lets multiple it by 10x. Not per our liking lets mutiple by 100x.

srean 5y ago
The government and the ruling party when questioned on Covid -- how dare you ask questions based on numbers they are very inaccurate and terrible in case we collected them, mostly we didnt and we have no data. The same government and the ruling party on their claimed achievements -- how dare you question our rock solid reliable numbers. You must be a traitor, unpatriotic, anti-national, tukde-tukde-gang-urban-naxal-protest-jeevi, why dont you go to Pakistan. For amusement (not exactly sure why those close to the ruling party is so focused on increasing tourism in Pakistan. I wish they paid as much attention to Indian concerns): https://www.google.com/search?q=BJP+go+to+Pakistan https://www.google.com/search?q=BJP+go+to+Pakistan
- hesarenu 5y ago
  Hinduphobic guy does not like current Govt. What are the odds!!
  - dang 5y ago
    We've asked you before not to post like this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25985903 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25985903. If you do it again we will have to ban you. Religious and nationalistic flamewar is not welcome on HN, and doubly so in the form of cheap drive-by comments. No more of this, please. Edit: it was even the same user you were flaming. This is seriously not cool.
    - hesarenu 5y ago
      That what happens if you let tolerate those kind of comments. Stupid false blatant false info are upvoted. If you try to answer civilly then you are donwvoted. I could have left it, but choose to indulge. You can ban me, anyway that would stop me getting involved in these petty situations. I don't anyway contribute much, just here for some tech news. btw you implied i would be banned, but not the other user. What makes me special?