4 ms·

In two years we're going to see a lot fewer eat-in restaurants, a lot more kitchen-only joints, and those kids who used to be wait staff will be on the dole, or

In two years we're going to see a lot fewer eat-in restaurants, a lot more kitchen-only joints, and those kids who used to be wait staff will be on the dole, or marching in the streets. Much like movie theatres, cheap quality dining is going away.

asciident 5y ago
I would be thrilled if kitchen-only joints replaced sit-down restaurants. I have about 20 sit-downs within walking distance, only about 5 are easy for takeout, none which serve higher-end food. If there were a few higher-end food options ($20 lunch instead of $10 lunch, $30 dinner instead of $15 dinners), especially without having to deal with tipping, I would carry out and eat at home a lot more. I have my own silverware, wine bottles, and napkins.
ookdatnog 5y ago
I don't see why you compare to movie theaters. The decline in movie theaters was, afaict, driven by a drop in demand, which in turn was driven by affordable home theater setups, increased availability of movies to watch at home, ... In contrast, your argument for why eat-in restaurants are about to disappear in large numbers is entirely based on a decrease in supply of cheap labor. You don't argue at all for why there would be a decline in demand. Perhaps customers changed their habits after the COVID lockdowns, but at least on the short term, I feel like I'm noticing the opposite effect: people really want to do stuff outside of their house. I understand that some of the more struggling restaurants would be driven over the edge by higher wages, but it seems spurious to assume that this will cause a large shift in the market all by itself. And it's even more spurious to just assume that this will drive large swathes of former wait staff into unemployment. Similar arguments are made carelessly in the minimum wage debate, where people mistakenly believe that there is consensus among economists that it drives up unemployment (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage#Surveys_of_economists https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage#Surveys_of_econom...).
- Sophistifunk 5y ago
  No, my prediction has nothing to do with a false labour shortage, and everything in common with movie theatres. They were precarious businesses, and there's been a huge shock to both industries from which I don't think most of the individual businesses will recover. Theatres might have made it, if hollywood wasn't also at an all-time low in customer esteem and (IMO) quality of output.
snovv_crash 5y ago
Go to a country with high cost of labour (eg. Switzerland) and you'll see that restaurants work just fine. However, they are a lot more efficient and hire less staff. Waiters carry their own card machines, menus are ready for customers as they walk in, service times are a little bit slower.
- Sophistifunk 5y ago
  I live in one of those high wage (for waiters) countries, tho less bork-bork more crikey, and restaurants are closing left and right, and those still going strong are getting more and more of their revenue from uber-eats & co. More owners are going to realise they can save a fortune on staff and rent if they switch to a kitchen-and-front-desk only business.

asciident 5y ago

I would be thrilled if kitchen-only joints replaced sit-down restaurants. I have about 20 sit-downs within walking distance, only about 5 are easy for takeout, none which serve higher-end food. If there were a few higher-end food options ($20 lunch instead of $10 lunch, $30 dinner instead of $15 dinners), especially without having to deal with tipping, I would carry out and eat at home a lot more. I have my own silverware, wine bottles, and napkins.

ookdatnog 5y ago

I don't see why you compare to movie theaters. The decline in movie theaters was, afaict, driven by a drop in demand, which in turn was driven by affordable home theater setups, increased availability of movies to watch at home, ... In contrast, your argument for why eat-in restaurants are about to disappear in large numbers is entirely based on a decrease in supply of cheap labor. You don't argue at all for why there would be a decline in demand. Perhaps customers changed their habits after the COVID lockdowns, but at least on the short term, I feel like I'm noticing the opposite effect: people really want to do stuff outside of their house. I understand that some of the more struggling restaurants would be driven over the edge by higher wages, but it seems spurious to assume that this will cause a large shift in the market all by itself. And it's even more spurious to just assume that this will drive large swathes of former wait staff into unemployment. Similar arguments are made carelessly in the minimum wage debate, where people mistakenly believe that there is consensus among economists that it drives up unemployment (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage#Surveys_of_economists https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage#Surveys_of_econom...).

Sophistifunk 5y ago
No, my prediction has nothing to do with a false labour shortage, and everything in common with movie theatres. They were precarious businesses, and there's been a huge shock to both industries from which I don't think most of the individual businesses will recover. Theatres might have made it, if hollywood wasn't also at an all-time low in customer esteem and (IMO) quality of output.

snovv_crash 5y ago

Go to a country with high cost of labour (eg. Switzerland) and you'll see that restaurants work just fine. However, they are a lot more efficient and hire less staff. Waiters carry their own card machines, menus are ready for customers as they walk in, service times are a little bit slower.

Sophistifunk 5y ago
I live in one of those high wage (for waiters) countries, tho less bork-bork more crikey, and restaurants are closing left and right, and those still going strong are getting more and more of their revenue from uber-eats & co. More owners are going to realise they can save a fortune on staff and rent if they switch to a kitchen-and-front-desk only business.