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41 percent of consumers say their next car will be electric

28 points by ablekh 5y ago

allears 5y ago
That may be what they say, but there aren't nearly enough EVs being manufactured for that to happen.
PragmaticPulp 5y ago
I’ve known a lot of people to say this, only to buy a gas powered vehicle when they realize that Teslas aren’t as cheap as they thought. The price gets even higher when they realize they need to hire an electrician to install a charging station for several thousand dollars. A Tesla Model 3 base model in white with no options will cost $41K with destination charge and no self-driving. Upgrade to the long range model, any color other than white, and get the self-driving package and you're looking at $60K. That same $60K could buy two Honda Insight hybrids which get 40-50mpg, and you'd still thousands left over. There are cheaper electric cars out there, but it's still tough to compete with economy gasoline cars or even economy hybrids like the Honda Insight. Road trips are also a hurdle for many. If a family drives 8 hours to visit grandma twice a year but an electric car would require a long charging stop at sparse charging infrastructure, suddenly that gas powered vehicle looks a lot more attractive.
- ablekh 5y ago
  This is a highly dynamic market: from rapidly (in some geographies) developing charging infrastructure to EVs becoming nicer, cheaper and with higher range. Two recent news in this regard are quite notable: a) Elon Musk announcing opening Tesla's Supercharger infrastructure to non-Tesla cars later this year and b) Chinese EV manufacturer Xpeng pricing base model of their new sedan P5 at less than $25K (beating Tesla at bringing the price of a solid EV down to that critical level).
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- toomuchtodo 5y ago
  A Model 3 is cheaper over five years than a Camry Hybrid considering total cost of ownership [1]. The cost to install an EV charging station can be as low as $500, but if it does cost more due to having to have your load center/breaker panel replaced, the US government has a 30% tax credit up to $1000 to offset the costs. The Tesla Supercharger network is extensive [2], and continues to grow by the week; charging at one takes ~20-30 minutes. Other networks with less coverage are available for Teslas (with an adapter) and non-Teslas alike. It does't hurt that jurisdictions continue to enact deadlines for combustion vehicle bans [3]. [1] https://insideevs.com/features/521424/tesla-model3-camry-hybrid-cost/ https://insideevs.com/features/521424/tesla-model3-camry-hyb... [2] https://supercharge.info/map https://supercharge.info/map [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehicles#Places_with_planned_fossil-fuel_vehicle_bans https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehic...
  - bitcurious 5y ago
    If you look closely at your first source, you’ll notice it’s specific to Australia, and assumes Australian prices for gas and electricity, as well a hugely different depreciation for the two cars. Doing the same math for most American states will punish the Tesla.
    - deleted 5y ago
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    - toomuchtodo 5y ago
      US prices for fuel are lower, but so is the cost of electricity in the US. It’s about half the cost per mile to drive an EV vs a light combustion vehicle.
      - lotsofpulp 5y ago
        Why is a 5 year cost of ownership relevant when a Toyota has a proven track record of lasting 10 to 20+ years and 200k to 300k+ miles without needing anything other than cheap routine care? Surely the evidence is stronger for cost per mile and cost per year being lower for a Toyota than a Tesla over the whole lifetime of the vehicle.
- turtlebits 5y ago
  I got my Chevy Bolt for 30k. (22.5k with federal subsidy). If you are taking an 8 hour road trip , it's not a huge stretch to put an 45 min charging session (especially if only twice a year, you're out 90 mins).
sdflhasjd 5y ago
I said this to myself before I bought my last car, but: 1) There doesn't seem to be any practical or socially acceptable way of charging a car that is parked on the street (I don't have a driveway) 2) Electric cars seems to still be significantly more expensive, even used. For what I was willing to pay, I couldn't find anything more than a very basic used leaf. 3) At the affordable end at least: They are so ugly and there's little to choose from. Both the Leaf and Zoe have this weird "electric car" look that I am not keen on. That was my experience a couple of years ago in the UK
- clouddrover 5y ago
  > 1) There doesn't seem to be any practical or socially acceptable way of charging a car that is parked on the street (I don't have a driveway) These ways are pretty cool: - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjiR-Wz_Z8s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjiR-Wz_Z8s - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qb5aA3Qepe8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qb5aA3Qepe8 Wireless charge points are also in the future: - https://witricity.com/ https://witricity.com/
- sharken 5y ago
  Number 1 is still the major issue, electric cars make sense for those who own a house or has access to an underground car park with charging. If you don't get a Tesla then the infrastructure is still not great. And roaming negotiations to let other electric cars use Teslas charging is still not a thing. For a successful rollout every charging facility has to be available, period. Adding electric charging to gas stations will not help enough. The current selection of electric cars is much better today, though most new cars seem to be in the high end of the price range.
  - clouddrover 5y ago
    > And roaming negotiations to let other electric cars use Teslas charging is still not a thing But soon: https://electrek.co/2021/07/20/elon-musk-confirms-tesla-open-superchargers-to-other-automakers/ https://electrek.co/2021/07/20/elon-musk-confirms-tesla-open...
codeddesign 5y ago
I don’t see how this article isn’t cherry picked. - How about those in cold climates where batteries don’t last nearly as long. - upper middle-class and higher only? Most apartments don’t have hookups. Those that do don’t have enough for 10% of the residents. How many home have hookups? How many families have $10k laying around to install hookups? Beyond the fact that it’s not reasonable at all for most Americans, no electrical grid would be able to handle it. It takes 2 minutes to refill you car with petrol. Most people don’t have the patience to wait 4 hrs for a fillup. Electric vehicles for near majority is not realistic at all right now. At the moment, this is a “cool” novelty, but not an option for most.
- 0x964 5y ago
  Adding a 220 outlet isn't outrageously expensive and it is only needed once as it will work with any future EVs. Adding a circuit and outlet to my garage cost $500 and I use the charging adapter that came with the car. And as for the grid not being able to handle the load - we were able to roll out air conditioning to every home in a couple of decades. I believe this is a solvable problem.
  - TheRealWatson 5y ago
    A solvable problem but not in the time-frame to support these 41% that are thinking about it for their next car.
    - virtualdom 5y ago
      If half of American commuters switched to EVs, the daily energy demand on the grid would only increase by 10-15%. The difference between peak load and average load is close to 30%, so we could handle that new EV load with the existing generation capacity. We just need market solutions to incentivize owners to charge during off peak hours, which most utilities already have via time-of-use rates and EV-specific plans.
      - virtualdom 5y ago
CivBase 5y ago
As someone in the USs midwest, EVs are a really tough sell for me. Charging is slow in the best case scenario, charging stations are few and far between, there are few "affordable" options, and it's unclear how well current models will retain their value in 6+ years. I'm hopeful for the tech, but I certainly can't see myself buying a fully electric vehicle before 2030. Most people I know around here seem to have similar reservations at best. Plus the majority of vehicles here are trucks and SUVs, for which there are still very few EV options.
- turtlebits 5y ago
  If you put in a L2 charger, you can charge fully every night (~24mi*12 hours = 288 miles of range). Agreed on the truck. Or you can just have 1 EV and 1 truck/SUV.
toadi 5y ago
I don't even had a car for the 6 last years. I don't commute(remote work), If I need items I do home delivery, If I need to be somewhere I ride my motorcycle or a cab. I love enduro riding and MX racing though. Tried to do this electric didn't really like it. Maybe it will grow on me when it improves.
Proven 5y ago
Because they are constantly bombarded with higher taxes for ICE cars, fake news about the ability to reverse climate changes, and showered with electric car subsidies. What is the value of someone's "opinion" in this situation? The article is junk. Edit: just saw a laughable comment about the Norwegians finding EVs to be such a great buy. Here you can find the details on how that plunder is funded by the Norwegian taxpayer: https://elbil.no/english/norwegian-ev-policy/ https://elbil.no/english/norwegian-ev-policy/

28 points by ablekh 5y ago

That may be what they say, but there aren't nearly enough EVs being manufactured for that to happen.

I’ve known a lot of people to say this, only to buy a gas powered vehicle when they realize that Teslas aren’t as cheap as they thought. The price gets even higher when they realize they need to hire an electrician to install a charging station for several thousand dollars. A Tesla Model 3 base model in white with no options will cost $41K with destination charge and no self-driving. Upgrade to the long range model, any color other than white, and get the self-driving package and you're looking at $60K. That same $60K could buy two Honda Insight hybrids which get 40-50mpg, and you'd still thousands left over. There are cheaper electric cars out there, but it's still tough to compete with economy gasoline cars or even economy hybrids like the Honda Insight. Road trips are also a hurdle for many. If a family drives 8 hours to visit grandma twice a year but an electric car would require a long charging stop at sparse charging infrastructure, suddenly that gas powered vehicle looks a lot more attractive.

ablekh 5y ago
This is a highly dynamic market: from rapidly (in some geographies) developing charging infrastructure to EVs becoming nicer, cheaper and with higher range. Two recent news in this regard are quite notable: a) Elon Musk announcing opening Tesla's Supercharger infrastructure to non-Tesla cars later this year and b) Chinese EV manufacturer Xpeng pricing base model of their new sedan P5 at less than $25K (beating Tesla at bringing the price of a solid EV down to that critical level).
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
toomuchtodo 5y ago
A Model 3 is cheaper over five years than a Camry Hybrid considering total cost of ownership [1]. The cost to install an EV charging station can be as low as $500, but if it does cost more due to having to have your load center/breaker panel replaced, the US government has a 30% tax credit up to $1000 to offset the costs. The Tesla Supercharger network is extensive [2], and continues to grow by the week; charging at one takes ~20-30 minutes. Other networks with less coverage are available for Teslas (with an adapter) and non-Teslas alike. It does't hurt that jurisdictions continue to enact deadlines for combustion vehicle bans [3]. [1] https://insideevs.com/features/521424/tesla-model3-camry-hybrid-cost/ https://insideevs.com/features/521424/tesla-model3-camry-hyb... [2] https://supercharge.info/map https://supercharge.info/map [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehicles#Places_with_planned_fossil-fuel_vehicle_bans https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehic...
- bitcurious 5y ago
  If you look closely at your first source, you’ll notice it’s specific to Australia, and assumes Australian prices for gas and electricity, as well a hugely different depreciation for the two cars. Doing the same math for most American states will punish the Tesla.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - toomuchtodo 5y ago
    US prices for fuel are lower, but so is the cost of electricity in the US. It’s about half the cost per mile to drive an EV vs a light combustion vehicle.
    - lotsofpulp 5y ago
      Why is a 5 year cost of ownership relevant when a Toyota has a proven track record of lasting 10 to 20+ years and 200k to 300k+ miles without needing anything other than cheap routine care? Surely the evidence is stronger for cost per mile and cost per year being lower for a Toyota than a Tesla over the whole lifetime of the vehicle.
turtlebits 5y ago
I got my Chevy Bolt for 30k. (22.5k with federal subsidy). If you are taking an 8 hour road trip , it's not a huge stretch to put an 45 min charging session (especially if only twice a year, you're out 90 mins).

sdflhasjd 5y ago

I said this to myself before I bought my last car, but: 1) There doesn't seem to be any practical or socially acceptable way of charging a car that is parked on the street (I don't have a driveway) 2) Electric cars seems to still be significantly more expensive, even used. For what I was willing to pay, I couldn't find anything more than a very basic used leaf. 3) At the affordable end at least: They are so ugly and there's little to choose from. Both the Leaf and Zoe have this weird "electric car" look that I am not keen on. That was my experience a couple of years ago in the UK

clouddrover 5y ago
> 1) There doesn't seem to be any practical or socially acceptable way of charging a car that is parked on the street (I don't have a driveway) These ways are pretty cool: - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjiR-Wz_Z8s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjiR-Wz_Z8s - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qb5aA3Qepe8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qb5aA3Qepe8 Wireless charge points are also in the future: - https://witricity.com/ https://witricity.com/
sharken 5y ago
Number 1 is still the major issue, electric cars make sense for those who own a house or has access to an underground car park with charging. If you don't get a Tesla then the infrastructure is still not great. And roaming negotiations to let other electric cars use Teslas charging is still not a thing. For a successful rollout every charging facility has to be available, period. Adding electric charging to gas stations will not help enough. The current selection of electric cars is much better today, though most new cars seem to be in the high end of the price range.
- clouddrover 5y ago
  > And roaming negotiations to let other electric cars use Teslas charging is still not a thing But soon: https://electrek.co/2021/07/20/elon-musk-confirms-tesla-open-superchargers-to-other-automakers/ https://electrek.co/2021/07/20/elon-musk-confirms-tesla-open...

codeddesign 5y ago

I don’t see how this article isn’t cherry picked. - How about those in cold climates where batteries don’t last nearly as long. - upper middle-class and higher only? Most apartments don’t have hookups. Those that do don’t have enough for 10% of the residents. How many home have hookups? How many families have $10k laying around to install hookups? Beyond the fact that it’s not reasonable at all for most Americans, no electrical grid would be able to handle it. It takes 2 minutes to refill you car with petrol. Most people don’t have the patience to wait 4 hrs for a fillup. Electric vehicles for near majority is not realistic at all right now. At the moment, this is a “cool” novelty, but not an option for most.

0x964 5y ago
Adding a 220 outlet isn't outrageously expensive and it is only needed once as it will work with any future EVs. Adding a circuit and outlet to my garage cost $500 and I use the charging adapter that came with the car. And as for the grid not being able to handle the load - we were able to roll out air conditioning to every home in a couple of decades. I believe this is a solvable problem.
- TheRealWatson 5y ago
  A solvable problem but not in the time-frame to support these 41% that are thinking about it for their next car.
  - virtualdom 5y ago
    If half of American commuters switched to EVs, the daily energy demand on the grid would only increase by 10-15%. The difference between peak load and average load is close to 30%, so we could handle that new EV load with the existing generation capacity. We just need market solutions to incentivize owners to charge during off peak hours, which most utilities already have via time-of-use rates and EV-specific plans.
    - virtualdom 5y ago

CivBase 5y ago

As someone in the USs midwest, EVs are a really tough sell for me. Charging is slow in the best case scenario, charging stations are few and far between, there are few "affordable" options, and it's unclear how well current models will retain their value in 6+ years. I'm hopeful for the tech, but I certainly can't see myself buying a fully electric vehicle before 2030. Most people I know around here seem to have similar reservations at best. Plus the majority of vehicles here are trucks and SUVs, for which there are still very few EV options.

turtlebits 5y ago
If you put in a L2 charger, you can charge fully every night (~24mi*12 hours = 288 miles of range). Agreed on the truck. Or you can just have 1 EV and 1 truck/SUV.

toadi 5y ago

I don't even had a car for the 6 last years. I don't commute(remote work), If I need items I do home delivery, If I need to be somewhere I ride my motorcycle or a cab. I love enduro riding and MX racing though. Tried to do this electric didn't really like it. Maybe it will grow on me when it improves.

Proven 5y ago

Because they are constantly bombarded with higher taxes for ICE cars, fake news about the ability to reverse climate changes, and showered with electric car subsidies. What is the value of someone's "opinion" in this situation? The article is junk. Edit: just saw a laughable comment about the Norwegians finding EVs to be such a great buy. Here you can find the details on how that plunder is funded by the Norwegian taxpayer: https://elbil.no/english/norwegian-ev-policy/ https://elbil.no/english/norwegian-ev-policy/