Agreed 100% but the fact that these are different directly rebukes a common conception of what probability means. Many people believe that "what is the probabi

Agreed 100% but the fact that these are different directly rebukes a common conception of what probability means. Many people believe that "what is the probability of X?" really means something like "if we were to re-create these exact conditions many times, what proportion of those iterations will X be true?" This problem seems to be a good thought experiment demonstrating that those two questions are not equivalent. Which only makes one wonder what "probability" really means...