12 ms·

I mean okay, it's really just a very very high plane ride to edge of space, not actual space? So assuming an evolution and not revolution in technology, how lo

by ck2 5y ago

I mean okay, it's really just a very very high plane ride to edge of space, not actual space? So assuming an evolution and not revolution in technology, how long until the first civilian orbits earth? 10 years?

uoaei 5y ago
Right, this is a publicity stunt more than a demonstration of useful technology. My suspicion is that Amazon is angling for a suborbital (Earth-to-Earth) delivery platform with "space" tourism as a side gig, while Branson is going full hog for "space" tourism and Musk is focusing on delivery to orbit. Of the three, going to orbit is definitely the most interesting and technologically advanced, and the others are just meant to get investors excited.
- dwaltrip 5y ago
  This is definitely useful tech for space tourism. We can debate the size of the market and the exact demand curve, but I’m sure there are a decent number of people who will pay the expected sticker price of a few hundred K to go to space. And prices will only go down.
  - uoaei 5y ago
    Down to what? Branson advertises it as "democratizing space" but surely you can't expect even 99% of the world's population to comfortably afford space travel in the next 50-100 years?
    - dwaltrip 5y ago
      I’m 31 and I’d wager I’ll be able to go to orbit for $10k or less (in 2021 dollars) in my lifetime. I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens in the next 20 years. I would leap to do so :) Hell I would probably be willing to pay a bit more. It’s not that cheap but many people go on vacations for a similar price every few years. Of course, that is a step up from these sub-orbital flights. They are related though. Progress in sub-orbital tourism will help pave the way for orbital tourism and beyond. Many signs are pointing to the space ecosystem and related technologies growing and developing in an incredible way in the coming decades, after multiple decades of relative stagnation.
      - krapp 5y ago
        Bear in mind that the world is entering a state of environmental collapse, and that automation, AI and globalism are going to render many millions of people without work in the near future. The disparity between rich and poor is only going to widen, and the middle is going to disappear. By the time this materializes, only the rich will be able to afford it, because only the rich will have $10k free to spend on anything. Everyone else will be gigging in the wasteland for autonomous corporations, up to their knees in radioactive iodine, for subsistence wages in femtobitcoins.
        dwaltrip 5y ago
        I agree we have monumental challenges ahead of us, and that we will have to work hard together to overcome them. I’m hopeful the outcome won’t be as dire as you describe.
gregoriol 5y ago
It has been possible for 20 years now! Dennis Tito was the first, he went into orbit as a civilian/tourist in 2001, Mark Shuttleworth in 2002, ... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Adventures#Clients_who_have_flown_in_space https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Adventures#Clients_who_h...
fiftyacorn 5y ago
Neil Armstrong was a civilian pilot

by ck2 5y ago

uoaei 5y ago

Right, this is a publicity stunt more than a demonstration of useful technology. My suspicion is that Amazon is angling for a suborbital (Earth-to-Earth) delivery platform with "space" tourism as a side gig, while Branson is going full hog for "space" tourism and Musk is focusing on delivery to orbit. Of the three, going to orbit is definitely the most interesting and technologically advanced, and the others are just meant to get investors excited.

dwaltrip 5y ago
This is definitely useful tech for space tourism. We can debate the size of the market and the exact demand curve, but I’m sure there are a decent number of people who will pay the expected sticker price of a few hundred K to go to space. And prices will only go down.
- uoaei 5y ago
  Down to what? Branson advertises it as "democratizing space" but surely you can't expect even 99% of the world's population to comfortably afford space travel in the next 50-100 years?
  - dwaltrip 5y ago
    I’m 31 and I’d wager I’ll be able to go to orbit for $10k or less (in 2021 dollars) in my lifetime. I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens in the next 20 years. I would leap to do so :) Hell I would probably be willing to pay a bit more. It’s not that cheap but many people go on vacations for a similar price every few years. Of course, that is a step up from these sub-orbital flights. They are related though. Progress in sub-orbital tourism will help pave the way for orbital tourism and beyond. Many signs are pointing to the space ecosystem and related technologies growing and developing in an incredible way in the coming decades, after multiple decades of relative stagnation.
    - krapp 5y ago
      Bear in mind that the world is entering a state of environmental collapse, and that automation, AI and globalism are going to render many millions of people without work in the near future. The disparity between rich and poor is only going to widen, and the middle is going to disappear. By the time this materializes, only the rich will be able to afford it, because only the rich will have $10k free to spend on anything. Everyone else will be gigging in the wasteland for autonomous corporations, up to their knees in radioactive iodine, for subsistence wages in femtobitcoins.
      - dwaltrip 5y ago
        I agree we have monumental challenges ahead of us, and that we will have to work hard together to overcome them. I’m hopeful the outcome won’t be as dire as you describe.

gregoriol 5y ago

It has been possible for 20 years now! Dennis Tito was the first, he went into orbit as a civilian/tourist in 2001, Mark Shuttleworth in 2002, ... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Adventures#Clients_who_have_flown_in_space https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Adventures#Clients_who_h...

fiftyacorn 5y ago

Neil Armstrong was a civilian pilot