This is the one to use, the OP is overly simplistic. The NYT model is great, if only to realize that only two variables drive the output; what do you forecast t

This is the one to use, the OP is overly simplistic. The NYT model is great, if only to realize that only two variables drive the output; what do you forecast the stock market to do, and what do you forecast the housing market to do. The compound interest from allocating your resources to the faster growing of the two vastly overwhelms small compounding or even large fixed costs. The real question is therefore - how long do you believe housing prices will keep increasing in your chosen area? A secondary concern that is harder to price and seldom included in these models is that buying housing is a good hedge against being priced out of the area you work & want to live. Of course it’s not a purely financial decision but I think it’s important to be aware of what you’re leaving on the table whichever option you choose.