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>>How many studies like this need to not replicate before we stop treating them seriously? Hard to answer this, IMO. It would be hard to stop keep versions of
by dalbasal 5y ago
>>How many studies like this need to not replicate before we stop treating them seriously?
Hard to answer this, IMO. It would be hard to stop keep versions of such anecdata from informing our personal worldviews, for example. Business knowledge is basically made out of such stuff.
Replicability, for questions like this may be the wrong bar. Should we expect a relationship between financial hardship and talking to three year olds to be the same for a group of parents in 2021 california and 1997 Tokyo?
A lot of the replication crisis is shoddy work. Bad research. But... a lot of it is a problem of the subject matter itself. It's complex, and can't be isolated. Does dumping a ton of manure in a forest result in more leaves? more flies? Hard to describe the relationship between the manure and leaves in a replicable way. You can do controlled experiments, but the lab version doesn't answer the same question... the one about complexity.
IDK... I'm not excusing the replication crisis and many of the worst affected fields do need to pay attention to the gunk they've accumulated. OTOH, we do need ways of describing relationships that are complex. "We know nothing" is insufficient.
- enkid 5y agoIt's not "we know nothing." It's "we have low confidence in this thing." Which is exactly what you should be willing to say if you want an accurate view of the world. You can take action of knowing something with low confidence, you just make sure it's not too extreme, and it's not incompatible with being wrong.