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People are good at predicting this: https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/08/scientists-can-collectively-sense-which-psychology-studies-are-weak/5686

• h0l0cube 5y ago
  > People To be specific: > They recruited 206 volunteers—a mix of psychologists and economists, students and professors, none of whom were involved in the SSRP itself
  • tqi 5y ago
    Also to be specific, none of the volunteers needed to consult an Oracle. The factors they cite (low N, "newsworthiness") are also the same factors that would give a layperson pause.
    • h0l0cube 5y ago
      I think if we're invoking the reproducabilty crisis, it's a bit ironic to then dismiss demographics
      • tqi 5y ago
        No, not really. The point is that it's possible to relibly predict whether a study will reproduce based solely on the characteristics of the study.
        • h0l0cube 5y ago
          And a high portion of the cohort of that study were people that read academic papers as an occupation. I'm not saying that the study couldn't generalize to lay people, just that you haven't presented evidence of it (I believe one of the early controversies that sparked the reproducability crisis was the discovery that an excess of studies were using college students as their participants, skewing their results)