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How do climate change models currently account for increase in plants? Are these plant growth numbers in line with expectations? Is this a large change or a rou

by bryan0 5y ago

How do climate change models currently account for increase in plants? Are these plant growth numbers in line with expectations? Is this a large change or a rounding error in those models?

roter 5y ago
Any global climate model worth its salt will have a comprehensive carbon cycle submodel, tracking the sources and sinks of carbon in all its forms, between ocean, soil, land, and atmosphere. Some models evolve the amount and type of plants e.g. C1 to project future biome distribution [0] One such model is aptly named TRIFFID [1] [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_cycle https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_cycle [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/35041539 https://www.nature.com/articles/35041539 Edit: non-paywall link to TRIFFID paper [3] [3] http://terra.seos.uvic.ca/model/common/HCTN_24.pdf http://terra.seos.uvic.ca/model/common/HCTN_24.pdf
- phkahler 5y ago
  One would hope they also have a comprehensive water vapor model including con-trails but last I checked it was still a research area.
  - counters 5y ago
    Water vapor is, indeed, comprehensively included in climate models since the 1970s.
alecst 5y ago
I heard John Baez call this "CO2 fertilization". And it's been talked about for a while. Hard to predict the effect, but the consensus seems to range from "could help, sorta" to "not really important". https://www.azimuthproject.org/azimuth/show/Carbon+dioxide+fertilization https://www.azimuthproject.org/azimuth/show/Carbon+dioxide+f... > The details of CO2 fertilization matter a lot. It could make the difference between their original plan being roughly good enough… and being nowhere near good enough! Check the page for more info on young vs old trees, nitrogen limits, etc. There's also this page, which has an even more pessimistic take. https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/11/co_2-fertilization/ https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/11/co_2-...
- bryan0 5y ago
  Wow thanks for this link. I’m familiar with John baez’s writings on physics and category theory, I didn’t realize how deep he went into climate change though. Anyway after reading this I think I can answer my original questions a bit: Yes increased plant growth is a critical and part of climate change models. IPCC is predicting an increase of 6G tons of carbon consumed by plants by 2050 and without this we could not hit our carbon goals. Hopefully this research shows that our models are not overestimating here.

by bryan0 5y ago

How do climate change models currently account for increase in plants? Are these plant growth numbers in line with expectations? Is this a large change or a rounding error in those models?

roter 5y ago

Any global climate model worth its salt will have a comprehensive carbon cycle submodel, tracking the sources and sinks of carbon in all its forms, between ocean, soil, land, and atmosphere. Some models evolve the amount and type of plants e.g. C1 to project future biome distribution [0] One such model is aptly named TRIFFID [1] [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_cycle https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_cycle [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/35041539 https://www.nature.com/articles/35041539 Edit: non-paywall link to TRIFFID paper [3] [3] http://terra.seos.uvic.ca/model/common/HCTN_24.pdf http://terra.seos.uvic.ca/model/common/HCTN_24.pdf

phkahler 5y ago
One would hope they also have a comprehensive water vapor model including con-trails but last I checked it was still a research area.
- counters 5y ago
  Water vapor is, indeed, comprehensively included in climate models since the 1970s.

alecst 5y ago

I heard John Baez call this "CO2 fertilization". And it's been talked about for a while. Hard to predict the effect, but the consensus seems to range from "could help, sorta" to "not really important". https://www.azimuthproject.org/azimuth/show/Carbon+dioxide+fertilization https://www.azimuthproject.org/azimuth/show/Carbon+dioxide+f... > The details of CO2 fertilization matter a lot. It could make the difference between their original plan being roughly good enough… and being nowhere near good enough! Check the page for more info on young vs old trees, nitrogen limits, etc. There's also this page, which has an even more pessimistic take. https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/11/co_2-fertilization/ https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/11/co_2-...

bryan0 5y ago
Wow thanks for this link. I’m familiar with John baez’s writings on physics and category theory, I didn’t realize how deep he went into climate change though. Anyway after reading this I think I can answer my original questions a bit: Yes increased plant growth is a critical and part of climate change models. IPCC is predicting an increase of 6G tons of carbon consumed by plants by 2050 and without this we could not hit our carbon goals. Hopefully this research shows that our models are not overestimating here.